I was able to get out to Belmont yesterday morning and watch his breeze
Beautiful morning out there. I also got to see Testa Rossi train as well as Swift Warrior so Friday morning was just about my perfect morning
Bottom-line is that I loved what I saw from Wicked Strong and he is my play for the Derby
I was very surprised that it was just me and one other gentlemen (who I didn\'t know) that were waiting for the horse to come out of the barn and walk with him to the track. It\'s a short walk from the Jerkins barn 57 to the training track at Belmont but given all of the concerns people have about this horse being high strung, etc, I wanted to see what he was like before his breeze. Now, its beyond apples and oranges to compare Belmont on a quiet Friday morning with 2 of us following along to what he will face next Sat but I will say that if I didn\'t know the horse had a reputation for being high strung, I wouldn\'t have thought twice about it as nothing he did before, during or after his breeze suggested the slightest hint of this horse acting like a knucklehead
It\'s clear the barn takes meticulous steps to make things as easy as possible on the horse mentally including the fact that they have a stable pony walk to and from the track with him. The stable pony is just about the calmest horse I have ever seen and you can tell his disposition positively effects Wicked Strong. The stable pony came out of the barn about 2 minutes before Wicked and stood perfectly still while the rider laid on his belly with his feet flat out and hands at the side like Superman. This is relevant to nothing other than I thought it was cool but the main point is this horse has clearly been a very calming influence on WS because WS didn\'t show the slightest hint of anxiousness or anxiety at any point to or from the track.
In terms of the breeze itself, everyone can see from the video how well this horse moves. He\'s a great moving horse who is clearly feeling happy and healthy. He\'s carrying good weight. He\'s a tall horse, medium build. Looks just like Hard Spun to me but I\'m not an expert on such things. I watched the breeze along with the assistant trainer who is terrific guy. Easy to root for these folks. Needless to say, they were extremely happy with the way the horse breezed. One note on breezes for people who are newer to the game that is valuable here. You often here that the time of the breeze doesn\'t tell the whole story. This is a good example of that for several reasons. First, the breeze started at the half mile pole before the turn for home and the breeze didn\'t end at the finish line, instead, the horse continued to breeze past the wire and finished 3/8ths past the wire around the turn. So one might want to compare the final 3/8ths of one of the breezes later this am at Churchill to the 37.55 final 3/8ths from WS yesterday and say \"not so good\" but since WS\'s final 3/8ths were around a turn, the times aren\'t comparable (not to mention the differences in track surfaces, etc).
The other important factor in the breeze for me was his ability to relax early and finish strong. Not just from a stamina perspective because we already know the horse has that but horses that have been knocked out by a previous effort or who aren\'t feeling good physically will often go fast early and then slow down late. Sort of the equivalent of \"wanting to get it over with\". This horse was the exact opposite. Very relaxed early, very powerful late. Watching the way this horse finishes the final 3/8ths around the turn and then gallops out another 1/8th tells you this is a true route horse. Watch his two 1 1/8 races. This horse doesn\'t even start running until the 1/8th pole.
The final question for me was seeing how hard he was breathing after the breeze so I rushed back to the barn to meet the horse (they come off the training track to head back to the barn from a different chute than they come onto to track so I couldn\'t walk back along with him). This horse couldn\'t have blown out a match and he was ready to do alot more than what he did was my main takeaway on that front. I had a chance to chat briefly with the rider that breezed him and all impressions are that this horse is doing as well as he\'s ever done
I posted some pictures on twitter (@covelj) for anyone who wants to see the horse heading to the track before the breeze or coming back after
Sorry I wasn\'t able to post this yesterday. I rushed to work right from Belmont and then I coached my sons baseball game right after work (barn burner ended in a 7-7 tie for those keeping score at home). Then took kids to dinner, came home, watched the hockey games and collapsed!
There are a million things that could go wrong for Wicked Strong pre race or during the race but I think this horse is by far the most likely winner.
He\'s the fastest horse in the race on the only speed figures I care about, he\'s one of the two best breed horses for the distance, I confirmed for myself yesterday that he\'s coming into the race in absolutely great shape and his running style seems to fit the race shape of this years derby very well
Any of these horses are liable to have a tough time dealing with the crowd so that\'s a concern for all of them, WS included, and I wish he had a jock that had won the race before but Rajiv rode MMM fine a few years ago in this race and he handled the pressure of big races well with Groupie Doll so I am ok there
I will be very surprised if he doesn\'t hit the board and that\'s how I will be playing the race. Very heavy with him on top and then keying him in the tri and super.
Good luck to all, will be a great week as always.
