Follow up on medal count and comment on ride on Curlin

[covelj70]

There is some confusion regarding medal counts work yesterday

The info I posted from welsh and CD PR said it was a 6f work. Folks who spoke with Romans said it was really a 5f work.

I watched the replay of the work a bunch of times and I see why there was confusion as the rider asks the horse a bit going around the turn after the wire. That\'s not entirely unusual to give the horse some urging to ensure a good gallop out but I understand why someone viewing it would think it was part of the work

The implication of all of this is whether he came home better than he started and then had an ok gallop out under some slight urging or if he came home a bit slower if it really was a 6f breeze. I just wanted to follow up on all of this given my comments yesterday

Either way, doesn\'t matter to me, I don\'t like this horse at all for this race. Great great horse but not on the dirt with so many races in such short a span of time. Great horse, terrible set up

Anyone trying to use this derby to learn about how to watch morning gallops and exercise should watch the hrtv video of ride on Curlin\'s gallop yesterday. The rider could barely hold the horse back the first time around. Absolute hammerlock. I predict this horse will have an excellent breeze today based on the gallops leading up to the breeze

Now, consistent with what I posted yesterday, a great lead up to the race for a horse that isn\'t that fast doesn\'t mean anything and this horse isn\'t that fast but Calvin changes the equation here for me. If I take 2 points off the horses paired top coming in because of ground savings, I can absolutely see the horse in the super at 15 to 1. As long as he breezes how I think he is going to breeze, he is in my ticket underneath WS. I don\'t think he can win even with a ground saving trip but he can hit the board.

[big18741]

Jim

Interested to get your take on Wicked Strong should he draw outside.I don\'t know that Maragh will find a way to save on either turn.

Can he give up as much ground as Orb and still win?

With Ride on Curlin we know he\'ll be 1w1w from any post.
If inside no problem-if outside Calvin hits the brakes and goes back to the rear.

We disagree on Medal Count be he also won\'t get hurt by the draw.
Albarado is dropping out of the back so wide will not be an issue on the first turn.

[pizzalove]

Cov,

In his two dirt races he was off of the lasix in one of them and then the other in Florida was a frontrunning track that made it difficult for a horse with his running style.  I am willing to give him a pass with those but you are dead on about his race spacing.  The derby will be his third two turn race in a month.  I just dont get it.

You also made a comment in one of your posts where you mentioned that \"it seems to all be catching up to Medal Count\".  I am curious what you meant by that.  I found it interesting.  Was that comment a positive or negative.

One other thing maybe someone can answer is about Dance with Fate.  After a two month layoff he comes back and demolished that feeled.  Almost as if he toyed with them.  Yet it seems more people are betting Medal count.  Just interesting to me.  Dance does have a grade 1 place on the dirt.

[covelj70]

I\'m very disappointed that ride on Curlin didn\'t have a great work

He\'s not that fast to begin with, I really needed to believe he was sitting on a top effort that with Calvin could get him a piece

Tough to come away from this breeze thinking that\'s the case.

[big18741]

pizzalove Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> One other thing maybe someone can answer is about
> Dance with Fate.  After a two month layoff he
> comes back and demolished that feeled.  Almost as
> if he toyed with them.  Yet it seems more people
> are betting Medal count.  Just interesting to me.
> Dance does have a grade 1 place on the dirt.


There was an earlier post about this started by SoCal.
I\'ll throw my two cents in:

1 Dance With Fate\'s trainer did not want to run in the Derby while Roman\'s was always gung ho.

2 Medal Count earned a slightly better figure in the Blue Grass on wide.

3 Medal Count has a much better pedigree for ten furlongs on any surface.

4 Romans going Keeneland poly to dirt in the Classics has panned out well in the past.Paddy O Prado,Dullahan,First Dude in the Preakness three that come to mind.

5 Dance With Fate ships cross country twice in three weeks while MC stabled at his home track the last month.

[big18741]

Could be this isn\'t his favorite surface.

Three races as a two year old and none were close to his top.

[covelj70]

Yeap. Sure could be the case

[vagrant]

A turf writer who knows her stuff told me the other day that she thought Gowan was overdoing it with the morning gallops, that Ride On Curlin was blowing hard every time he came off.

[pizzalove]

Great answer.  Thank you.  Ive got more thinkin to do.

[vagrant]

Also, since 1996, horses that didn\'t work at Churchill have failed to make the superfecta 94% of the time (51/54).

All three exceptions were winners: Funny Cide, Giacomo and I\'ll Have Another.

[TGJB]

How many horses didn\'t work at CD, how many did?

[covelj70]

Guess its a good thing for me that WS is blowing out 3f on Thursday then. Lol

Big Brown did same. Just short blowout right before the race.

He did all the real work at GP

[Silver Charm]

They will know their Post Position by then also so they may have a little idea of how much they want to do with him.....

[vagrant]

277 worked at Churchill; 69 ran in the top four (24.9%).

54 didn\'t work at Churchill; only the three winners ran in the top four (5.6%).

[TGJB]

Very interesting.