Thought/Question

[TGJB]

First of all, with all the supposed bad works this year, the question arises as to whether it might be the track, not the horses.

But beyond that-- seems every year we hear about several horses that they \"handled it much better in this work (or just \'this morning\') than they did when they first went over it last week\". Which begs the question-- do horses who get in early have an advantage?

Which in turn leads back to the issue of succesfuls shipping-- WHEN to go is one of the choices.

[jimbo66]

Could be the track. Lets fact it, CD has a history here.  They blew two breeders cups and a derby with a dead rail and dead speed track.

Last night is a small sample, but not sure the inside was the place to be and speed didn\'t hold.  A bit of a tiring track.  Though not as blatant as some of the biases I have seen at CD.

[modpirate]

I was at the track last night as well, and the speed definitely did not hold up. Betting slow paced long shots would have paid off last night.

[covelj70]

Funny Cide, Giacomo and I\'ll Have Another never worked at CD before the Derby

It was something I used to focus on alot but IHA really put a hole in that theory

Baffert is the one who really believes is having 2 works over the track which is why he gets there early and his horses have run well but I don\'t think his perceantages of horses running pairs and tops is any better than the others and he hasn\'t won the last few times he has brought the goods

Pletcher always ships in early and we know his record but I remember posting a study a few years ago on the board that he is about average in terms of horses pairing/topping in the Derby

He rarely has the fastest horse and he doesn\'t again this year. Verazzano was the exception to that in terms of being the fastest but he was distance limited and over the top by the time he got to the Derby.