2 points about the Derby trial that could be relevant for the Derby

[covelj70]

JB is nice enough to post the previous days races in the redboard room so everyone can see these figs and thus I\'m not giving away data here.

Two things to highlight about last night that could be, note I say COULD be relevant for next Sat.

1.  The winner was coming off a 7 point new top. Now, I don\'t know what he ran and I\'m not a figure maker (miff?) but he ran a 94 beyer last night and was three wide around the turn so if he didn\'t pair, I doubt it was off by much at all. Hmmm, 7 point new top.....sound familiar? And I would note that all seven pts of development have been in the last few months. He was \"supposed\" to bounce last night but maybe, just maybe, the horse is getting good as a spring three year old

2.  Several have raised the point about WS races at GP not being indicative of his true ability either because of the mishap in the first race or the speed bias in the second. Myosotis Dan almost certainly ran a big new top last night after having been compromised by the anti-closer bias at GP this winter. Did he really have a huge jump up last night or was he really much more talented and putting in bigger efforts than the 5s this winter on the speed strip at GP indicated. Applying this to WS, what if the figure from the allowance race was compromised by a few points as it might have been for Myositis Dan. Then he\'s not looking at as big of a jump. Now, do I really believe all of this? Not really but for anyone who is tossing WS solely based on the jump up, it might be wise to think about this stuff

I almost didn\'t post this because the last thing I want to be seen as doing is arm twisting people into a position I like and as I said yesterday, no one should play this horse because I like him as I have missed a bunch of derbies including animal kingdom and mine that bird where I didn\'t have any of the top three in either race. I just wanted to post this because there are so many new folks to the board this time of year and these figures are incredibly powerful for any handicapper but you have to put some critical thought into the numbers and the patterns some times and not just accept everything that goes along with \"sheet theory\" (see Jimbo, not such a cool aid drinker)

Miff, youre the best I know at this stuff, what you think winner ran last night?

[touchgold]

the only thing I would add is if I am playing a horse off a big jump, I like to have odds. You make great points, but to me, knowing when a horse will react/pair/go forward off a big jump is very difficult, thus making long odds very important. After looking at the trial last night I wish chitu last was  more like a 2. At that point I could make an argument that you have a forward moving horse, with time, that I could easily see a 1 on his sheet in derby. And without losing a ton of ground, a 1 is a very high % to get in the tri in derby. The foot, the slow last 3/8 at sunland, etc, being big questions, he will be 20-30 to 1. While he is still going forward, he may be a bit slow. However, there is a chance, with the healthy line, he pops..Ive read people here saying hes beat nothing, and thats fine, but ML did run second (and maybe a new top) in chicago, I think bourbonize won a 100k race at OP, and maybe commissioner is just no good. Anyway good luck to all....not sure who else I am considering, but cant wait for seminar. Good luck to all.

[Ollie]

And just suppose you\'re right, Jim, and WS\'s greenness -- his drifting via the whip, not changing leads, changing to the wrong lead, his gate problem in the Holy Bull, suppose all of that held his numbers down. Then, what are we looking at?

[ajkreider]

I hear this a lot about the speed bias on FOY day, but I just don\'t see it.  In the WS allowance, the top two went round, but WS and Mexikoma both came from dead last at the half.  And in the FOY, while Red and ARod were wiring the field, Top Billing and East Hall came from the tail of the field to fill out the super.  Three of the top four in those races went 1,2,3 in the FD, which was on a fair track for sure.

Myosotis Dan looked best in the Trial.  It tells me that Anchor Down is a heckuva horse.

[moosepalm]

I think there are more \"maybes\" and \"what ifs\" in that thesis than would warrant a conviction.  You\'ve built a better case for WS elsewhere.  I rather bet a horse on what he\'s done and what I\'ve seen, than suppositions on why he didn\'t.  As for the bounce possibility vs. a 3-year old wake up call, there\'s anecdotal evidence to support both in Derby annals.  He made an impressive run past a high end hard knocker in Samraat, so he\'s got that in his corner.  Pair up a 7-point jump?  Even if Embellishing Bob did it, I wouldn\'t build my case off a horse doing it at a mile.  Even if WS backs up two points, he has to be in the conversation.

[Ollie]

Don\'t forget, he also closed into an 11.79 second final eighth in his Remsen, making up lengths.

Understand your point about the \"maybes\" and \"ifs,\" but of all the horses, he appears to possess the most talent.

[miff]

Jim,

Based in the Beyer adjusted for ground like a TG 2.5 IF TGJB has track speed the same as Beyer.

Mike