Ok, did it manually, could only get pp\'s (to check where they last worked) dating back to 2010 (4 years worth) online. So ran those, for every horse in each derby. If anyone has older pp\'s or knows a site that has them, can run the older ones.
RESULTS 4 yrs - 78 horses
2+ workouts at CD - 32 horses
TOP 13%
PR 16%
OFF 25%
X 47%
1 workout at CD - 25 horses
TOP 12%
PAIR 24%
OFF 24%
X 40%
0 workouts at CD - 21 horses
TOP 0%
PAIR 19%
OFF 14%
X 67%
It\'s only 4 years worth but...that 0% tops for 0 works at CD does kind of stand out. But again, only 4 years worth. And actually, given what we know of how few run Tops in the derby, maybe it should be the other way we are looking at it, that having at least 1 work over the track seems to yield a better % of tops than the usual 8.5%
But again, really need some more years to confirm
One thing that did stand out going through these, and this is interesting for THIS YEAR\'S derby. All of Makers horses (5 in total, all OFF\'s or X\'s) before this year had everyone of their works leading up to the race at the Training Center. Not at CD itself. Whereas this year, he brought all three over, VIC and HH will have had 1, and if the weather allows tomorrow or the next day, AROD will have had 2. And more to the point, they will all have been on the grounds since last Tuesday (22nd) afternoon.
A couple of notes
-Backtalk, in 2010 had his 2nd last work at CD, but his last, for some insane reason, at KEE. I included him in the group that had exactly ONE work
-Giant Finish, 2013, brought in late by T. Dutrow, I am pretty sure he had 0 works over CD, that\'s what news reports indicated (was not in the pp pdf i had for it for some reason), if anyone knows if he did in fact have a late blowout a day or two prior to race over CD?
-Prospective, 2012, had his final 3 works over CD but with a race in-between, the bluegrass. So I took him as having just 1 (his lone work after the bluegrass) at CD.
