Okay, guys.

[jcipoletti]

Just took a quick look back to 2007, 31 runners total.  

Have to go back to Tiago in \'07 to find even a small new Top among the Non-CD work group, moving forward 1.75pts. Master of Hounds (0.5) and Any Given Saturday (0.25) the only other two to move forward at all.  I\'ll Have Another (0), Nobiz Like Shobiz (-0.5), Lines of Battle (-0.75), Circular Quay (-0.75) and Cowboy Cal (-1) are the other pair ups.

That\'s 1 small Top and 7 pair ups out of 31 runners.  Only two - Dialed In and Great Hunter - ran Off, while the remaining 21 X\'d by an average of 13.5 points off their top.  

Again there is the issue of sample size.  I tell the basketball coaches I work with that findings from a small sample will not be conclusive, but they do fine tune the lens and give you something specific to look for in the film room.

[phil23]

I agree, would have thought we\'d see more correlation. Don\'t have a good explanation. Double checked each last night before posting but it is a manual type in thing, pretty sure all correct, but user error is not impossible here.

[jcipoletti]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> I haven\'t looked at this closely (a little busy),
> but I\'m having trouble understanding how the
> original reported results by finish (only 6% of
> horses with no works hitting super, 25% of those
> with works doing it) has not much correlation with
> how they run in figure terms. Seems to me for that
> to be true horses working at CD would have to
> start out faster than the other group.


The Non-CD Work group from 2007-2013 had an average top of 2.30 (std dev 1.88) coming in.  Any idea how that compares with those that had a work over the track over that same timeframe?