kudos to our host

[covelj70]

I just wanted to give JB a shout out on his willingness to go out on a very very big limb in this year\'s seminar with the horses he likes

while I couldn\'t disagree more with the picks, it takes a tremendous amount of courage for a very public handicapper to go against every bit of conventional wisdom in making his selections

he completely ignores the commetnary about how the horses are training and any pedigree views and any trip handicapping from the preps which are so easy to get wrapped up in this time of year

again, I don\'t give any of his horses any chance at all but he\'s the pro at this, not me, and as someone who makes a living trying to go against convetional wisdom and who understands the fallout from the wise guys who play arm chair quarterback after the fact when conventional wisdom wins out over an out of the box approach, I have a ton of respect for what JB did this year

JB is going for the score of a lifetime kind of stuff and I think that\'s great even though there is 0 chance that we could both cash this year

well done JB

[toppled]

I like 1 of the 4 and the encouraging thing is the first time I looked at the sheet I came to the same conclusion that JB did.  So either I\'m getting better at reading patterns or reading all these Derby posts have dumbed him down-I sure hope it\'s the 1st one.

[TGJB]

Thanks. I didn\'t ignore the commentary about how horses are training,it just didn\'t affect my thinking much.

Tread-- the fact CC may not be training well doesn\'t say anything about ability, just means he\'s not training well.

[TreadHead]

In general, Im not questioning CCs ability at all, think he is a nice horse that may win many other G1s in California.  Maybe even other places.  But I am questioning whether his ability will be demonstrated on this track over 10F on this Saturday.  He may even finish in the super or maybe even the tri.  But I\'m firmly against him winning and have to shake my head at the runaway freight train of hype on this horse in this specific situation.

[jimbo66]

Tread

What makes u say runaway train of hype?

What odds do U think he goes off at?   I would bet anything, no lower than 3-1 and will bet we see something like 5-1 in the early win betting Friday.  

With all the horses with ability that fell by the wayside in the past month or so, he is clearly the most accomplished.  But he won\'t be over bet.  When was the last time we saw a west coast horse overhyped and overbet in the derby.  Very rare.  Point given at 2-1 and he was the real deal, just didn\'t fire in the derby.   There is. Bit of an east coast bias in these big pools.  

All that said, I have to admit I am falling off the CC bandwagon a bit.  I don\'t like the way he is training, I think it matters and I hate the post.  I think an outside draw, even though it might have caused some first turn ground loss, would have been better for this horse, who likes to run in the clear.  

Will be very interested to see the betting odds.  Think many of the \"long shots\" that people want to bet, even the ones the host likes, are not going to be fair value, going to be shorter than expected, because of diminishing choices.  Wicked strong way outside, Hoppertunity scratched.

[TreadHead]

Jimbo, I am firmly entrenched in living room downs due to family situation and follow over 300 people on twitter that are fans or have some involvement in the industry, plus keep tabs on TVG/HRTV and other blogs.  I see an amount of hype over this horse that is incredible via those channels, and very few detractors other than folks on this site.

When is the last time a Cali horse was over-hyped for Derby?  Last year.  Goldencents was a 7-1 3rd choice and was completely hopeless.  I think CC is much better than GC for the record, but you don\'t have to be much better to show a better result than GC did.

I don\'t think he\'s going to be 2-1 or anything like that.  But do think he is going to be a lot more popular than Orb was last year.  I would be surprised if he is higher than 4-1 based on the public groundswell I\'m seeing.  Fully expect Beyer to get behind him as well, but I guess maybe if he goes somewhere else his sheep will take their money there and improve CCs odds.

[jimbo66]

Tread

7-1 on golden cents was not an underlay.   It was fair value.  He was an easy winner of the Santa Anita berry and has proven out to be a multiple grade 1 winner.   He was gobbled up in a stupid pace.  And in hindsight, not a 1 1/4 horse.  

At the time 7-1 was fair.  

CC will be fair value relative to his credentials.  A horse with open length wins under a hand ride that had campaigned in the east would be shorter odds than this cal bred will be.  I am guessing 7-2 off odds.

[dannyboy135]

Jim , I also have great respect for jb and his handicapping abilities, however I disagree with his suggestion that the effort distribution in the various scenarios are relevant.
I am of the view that ky derby figures ( tops, pairs, offs and xxx\'s ) are more a product of :
       Field size, traffic, race set up ( always fast paced w 20 horse fields) , distance limitations r abilities,.  Simply put I think the figures given in the derby are more the product of the above rather than effort.
Danny

[jimbo66]

Interesting post Jim

Translation - Jerry,  great research and well written seminar.  Horrifically bad conclusions, bordering on clueless...   .  

Kidding....

[covelj70]

lol

I just emphasize different stuff that\'s all

(love the figures, ignore the other stuff)

but what the heck do I know, just a hobby for me, anyone looking for actual advice should take it from the pro!

only thing I have any conviction in at all after the developments of the last two days (post, schratches, morning works) is that California Chrome will be off the board

only problem with that is that I have absolutely no idea which of the other 19 will hit the board.  I really wish there was a legal way I could short a horse

Even if I could find 1 horse that I had conviction on hitting the board, I would be willing to go very very deep in the other spots in the tri and super because it could be big ballons with CC out of it but I have no conviction whatsoever after WS drew 20 and Hopper scratched

for any horse that anyone wants to give me that they are sure will hit the board, I could give them 3 better reasons they won\'t

Just a mess of a race now that will frustratingly have some monster payouts

[Old Mr. Boston]

I couldn\'t agree more in feeling CC won\'t hit the board. My simple plan is a chaos play, I\'ll box up 5 or 6 I give a shot too and drink heavily. If this were any other race on any other day I would pass...Good luck to all...Ken

[covelj70]

that\'s the right move Ken

One great/tragic chaos play story

Was with a big group at the Giacomo derby

One of the guys in our group was an incredibly sharp, incredibly wealthy guy but he knew nothing about horses

he was probing those in the group that supposedly knew about horses all day to test convcition levels, theories, etc

he eventually (accurately) decided that we were all clueless and that he should play choas theory

So, he looks at the board and decides that he\'s going to play a very large exacta box with all of the horses that were 50 to 1 and higher (remember, these were in the days when longshots were really longshots, not horses like Commanding Curve, or Falling Sky for that matter, that should be 70 to 1 who are really 20 or 30 to 1).

Anyway, the wise guys morons (myself included) played Bandini

after the race, I realize that it was a 51-1 shot over a 71-1 shot and figured my buddy just won over a million dollars given the size of his exacta

I run up to go start celebrating with him and he is completely white in the face.  when he went up to bet, Giacomo was 49-1 and his arbitrary cut off was 50-1 so he left him out.

Swear to god true story, worst thing I have ever seen at a horse race

here\'s to having no stories on the board like that on Saturday night!

[justwin]

Jim,

I appreciate all of your input but I think you are off base on Commanding Curve. He should not be 70-1. Ran very well last race. Very similar pattern to Dullahan as well as what the host mentioned. Dullahan was beat by 2 very good horses.

George

[covelj70]

His breeze was the worst thing I saw all week (and he was on the outside, the supposedly better part of the track)

I have been wrong before throwing horses out based on works but there\'s absolutely no way he looked like a horse who is ready to run his race

[jimbo66]

Ouch.  At least u said the guy was very wealthy, so the bad beat doesn\'t sting that much.  

I hate that derby although it has provided my old man the opportunity to make a crack or two at my expense every year since then.   We were sitting at the buffet at the meadowlands as I was finalizing my bets before that race.  My father hands me 200 dollars and said \"let\'s make exacta wheels with the two Italian horses, Bandini and Giacomo\".   I respond with a long winded diatribe about being a serious handicapper, I don\'t make \"idiot bets\" and would \"never do that\".   I tell him that Bandini is a horse (Giacomo is not) and would partner with him on that wheel, since he was one of my keys.  So of course we partner with a Bandini wheel, along with my 50 other vertical wagers that all lost.

And I hear about this every year.  I am expecting that call from him tomorrow night, maybe 8 pm or so...