KY Derby my favorite betting race of the year. I tend to give a lot of extra credit to colts bred to get the 1 ¼ vs brilliant miler types that have managed to stretch their speed and look good in 1 1/8 or 1 1/16 prep races.
My assumption is we will get a fair track, but that is not a given and bears watching the early races closely. One thing of note, even when the rail is dead at CD, very often the innermost part is still rock hard and golden. By innermost part I mean you literally have to scrape the paint, if you are even a foot out further you are in the deep inner going. This can make bad rail days tough to gauge because just when you become convinced the rail is dead someone scrapes the paint and wins on it. Calvin Borel is really one of the only jocks who tends to ride on this part of the track. See his recent derby rides on Street Sense, Dennis of Cork Mine That Bird, Super Saver. Or better yet, see yesterday on Moonshine Mullin. He gets right down on the rail, scrapes the paint, whips them right handed and keeps them there. This can seriously upgrade his chances of hitting the board or winning a race on CD. Of course he has to have a ride that cooperates, and preferably one that fits on number power, fitness and distance capability as well. If you watch his ride yesterday on Sugar Shock you will notice she was inside but refused to get right down on the rail like Moonshine Mullin did. She was half a path further out, and that makes all the difference.
For the KY Derby today, I dunno how Borel gets from the 19 post to the rail without losing a bunch of lengths, so I’m not as concerned. The crowd bets him anyway so his Derby mounts often offer little value as they are almost always underlays. But just something to consider when laying out your ticket(s) or betting the undercard.
As far as betting the race this year, I am of the opinion that there is no Orb in this year’s race. There is no stand out, no colt that I can’t poke at least a couple of holes in. So I don’t have a strong key for the race. Instead, I am taking the position that the favorite will be vastly over bet vs. what I think his actual chances are of winning or hitting the board. I don’t like Cal Chrome today. I think he’s a nice colt, but he’s not bred to get the 1 ¼ or be a classic horse, he’s heavily raced, & hasn’t trained exceptionally well. Plus, I don’t think he likes to take dirt or be behind horses. In order to run his race I think he will need to assume a forward, outside stalking position. And I don’t think that is likely to happen. It could, and if it does and he runs his race the only thing I may cash is a small saver ticket. But if he doesn’t win I think he probably doesn’t even hit the board. Knowing that the crowd usually tends to include the favorite on their TRI and SUPERFECTA bets, if he doesn’t hit the board the payoffs in those pools should be juicy. So I am going to spread out and play against Chrome.
WS has number power, has trained pretty well and is bred to absolutely love the added distance. But mentally I don’ think he is quite there yet. He’s not galloping like Orb did last year as if he owns the oval. And he has melted down before in his races. So I will use him, but I can’t have him as my only key horse. If he runs his race and gets a decent trip he’s got as good as chance as any.
MC ran a big number at Keenland and is training as if he is a totally different colt from who he was 2 months ago. I don’t like the spacing and he may not excel on the dirt, but he sure acts as if he is going to run well. Seems to be thriving, well bred for this.
IH has done nothing wrong training, has a good number to run back to. He had problems with his lead change in the LA Derby but showed good athleticism to not go down after hitting the rail and then re-rallied.
DAN should get a perfect trip around the track from the 4 post. In his last I think he got to do what he wants to do for the first time. He was allowed to relax and settle into stride early instead of being urged. He showed good maturity listening to his rider and did not hesitate to go through a hole and rally up the rail. I really like the way this guy runs. Very good mind, even in his losses. If he can get a seam to get through and avoid being stuck behind tiring speed he could win this thing outright.
Nothing not to like about SAM. Gritty, hard trying sort. Not really bred as well as some of these. But he keeps trying. Liked how after he changed leads late in the Wood he re-rallied and caught SI and won the photo. I would be surprised if he won, but he may have enough to hang on for a piece.
COM CURVE is a very interesting colt. I really liked his LA Derby. Had a lot of trouble early, weaved his way through traffic, didn’t hesitate to move in between horses. Has a great pattern as well. I saw Welsch didn’t like his last work. I have a different take on that work that I don’t have time to get into right now. But I like him, a lot.
My whole bet is structured around getting CAL CHROME off the board and getting a few of these home instead.
