Here is SoCalMan\'s Take --
Winner -- Vicar\'s In Trouble -- this horse has only run 5 times and has done almost nothing wrong. Young developing horse with an excellent jockey in a race that requires intense jockey skills. Although his established level is not a lot different from others in this race, he has real license to actually move forward. First race on plastic is a toss. Second race could not be better......a 2yo running a zero? is really something...he establishes there in his 2yo top that he is a serious horse to think about in the future.....moves into negative territory and Big Brown/Smarty Jones type status are not unreasonable to think about this horse getting to. the only reaction/bounce in this horse\'s entire life is filled with excuse...plus he won the race by almost 7 lengths anyway. The return to form with the buried zero is awesome and a pointer to near term improvement. The fact that he didnt move forward last race is not troublesome to me. I would have forecasted him too, but also a lot of times you forecast a horse to move into new territory it is delayed a race. This horse, more than any other in the race has license to run a new big top. He has a great jockey who should be able to contend with the one hole (thinking Shoemaker on Ferdinand).
Second Best -- Dance With Fate -- this is a dirt horse finally coming back to his correct surface. He has run good enough to win. Nakatani will stay out of trouble, and he should be the beneficiary of hot pace up front. the only legitimate concern I can think of is was the move up too far and the rest running back too soon. While I agree those are two issues....There are reasons I am not as concerned....first, he has been running on the wrong surface and the jump up could be a delayed reaction due to being on the wrong surface. If he had switched to dirt in January and worked his way down nicely to his last fig, people would be all over this horse. When we look at horses, we want to find something concealed that other people are missing. In this horse, that is that this is a dirt horse that has been running on grass. in terms of the rest, that is the most troublesome. Would I like to see more time here, yes. How do i deal with the problem of the spacing, well, he has run closely spaced races a lot and has not shown any trouble with it. ALSO, he had a large amount of time into his last race....given he was so well rested into that race and that it was a race on poly (allegedly a more forgiving surface than dirt), I am thinking the 3 weeks rest here is not as problematic as it could be in other contexts.
Third Best -- Samraat. talk about an honest horse....this horse has done nothing wrong. My concern with him is a replay of the Wood Memorial....he does everything right but the shape/development of the race just plays against him....what is not to like about a 3yo who is 6 for 6 in the money (including 4 stakes, 3 of them graded)....only bad race had an excuse. If he gets the trip, he could be there for the top prize.
Long Shot Special -- Beware of the weak half of a Baffert coupling. how often have we seen the lesser heralded Baffert be the better. Chitu has done nothing wrong in 4 races. He has great spacing into this race. Only knock on his sheet is he is slow....however his pattern suggests new top step up and Baffert\'s Derby history suggests the same.
