Great job TG!

[Benton]

I would like to say, \"job well done, JB & staff!!\"
I\'m sure you all are smoking big cigars & grinning ear to ear!!!

[jerry]

I don\'t know who you are or if you\'re being facetious, but I\'m pretty sure they\'re not. Not because of the derby anyhow.

[rezlegal]

Actually I am pretty certain they are celebrating. I you review the TGJB derby analysis, he loved---Loved- the 17 horse and gave out a 5\'horse spread with CC- a $330 exacta with the favorite. Not shabby when he puts his reputation on the line and goes public with such a bomb. The fact that he properly analyzed that CC was no faster than others does not diminish how good the analysis was.

[Benton]

I simply handicapped & played TG numbers today after crushing the Oaks Super Hi 5 yesterday!

[jerry]

Commanding Curve was the only valuable insight in the analysis and I do appreciate that insight. It was the only ticket I cashed on the race. California Chrome was a do-not-use at a short price. Danza and Wicked Strong were horses they did not like and didn\'t plan to use. So unless they had a big place bet on the 17, I don\'t see the big score.

[rezlegal]

There you go again! They never said CC WAS A THROW OUT. And the spread they gave out specifically advised to use CC with the 34-1 CC. MY guess is they did not bet a nickel to place-- but given the units TGJB usually bets even if he \"saved\" with a CC - CC EXACTA that is a pretty good \" score\" .

[yesthatwouldbeme]

I wanted to add my SINCERE thanks as well. Just discovered this forum this week and dove in for hours reading your well informed comments/analysis. I\'ve been using the \"Analysis\" from TG for a few years mostly for the BC and am finally understanding the raw sheets in a meaningful way now.

I live 15 min from Santa Anita and watched both of Chrome\'s last two preps live. After watching him effortlessly fly down the backstretch in the SA Derby (by daylight!! over 2 top 5 prospects) I knew he was my KD horse.

I keyed Chrome with all of the top TG picks and had the Exacta for $20 thanks to the TG call on Curve and a decent win bet, clearing $5K -- my best day at the track ever. Couldn\'t be happier and wanted to thank TG and this group of degenerate gamblers for powering my win.

[jerry]

OK. I\'ll just lift some of his opinions straight from the analysis. They speak for themselves.

\"The top group contains the four horses we really like. Samraat, General A Rod and Vicar’s In Trouble\"... \"Commanding Curve is very live at an enormous price\"

\"The second strongest group is comprised of four horses. California Chrome has solid figures so we have to put him here, but he\'s no faster than several others and may be over the top, so we can\'t use him at a short price.\"

And this one, not from the analysis, but from a TGJB blog post and a big clue why I think there were no cigars.

\"Live with 9 horses for the pick six, the favorite not among them\".

[rezlegal]

the analysis that came with the derby sheets is just that-an analysis-it doesn\'t tell you who or how to wager-the separate daily CD picks for yesterday manifestly absolutely, positively,unambiguously advised customers to use CC ( favorite) with the four he mentioned in the analysis.TGJB (a friend) needs no help from me re his reputation or success level. But since this Board (which I infrequently post to)is supposedly designed to make us all a bit better in a difficult game, we each need to take responsibility for our gambling/handicapping prowess. If someone gives out a 34-1 shot in a 19 horse field, and the favorite (clearly playable regardless of anyones subjective view)wins and the exacta comes back over $300 it is on us if we miss the play, not on T Graph or TGJB and we should not seem to project bad fortune or luck on others (by assuming thy could not had have made the correct wager) who likely made a different call and profited. Like life itself, gamblers need to take responsibility for their sucess or failures.

[TGJB]

Correct. I had 5 out of 6 9 times but no cigar, for sure.

I will say this, if I knew what Jellish did about Curve\'s work it might have been different, I might have just keyed him.

This is the first year I remember that those watching works were dead wrong (excepting MJ\'s guy, clearly). I thought Chrome was a contender but an underlay, but after hearing not just Welsch but others declare him dead meat based on physicality I made him a clear play against-- the \"smooth effortless stride\" was now anything but at CD according to everybody. It wasn\'t a question af ability, I thought he was going to X out and actually wasn\'t at all concerned about him beating me out of the pick 6. Until the top of the stretch.

Miff\'s right, no matter how you do the race there are going to be a lot of X\'s. With no correlation to how they worked.

[vagrant]

Bruno De Julio was all over Commanding Curve. His penultimate work got the only 5-star grade he gave a Derby contender over the last two weeks. And he loved Curve\'s gallops last week.

He also high on Danza, Medal Count and Tapiture. Only Tapiture ran poorly.

On the flip side, he was consistently underwhelmed by Vicar\'s In Trouble and Wildcat Red, and gave nothing but thumbs down to General a Rod.

[Box]

FYI...Bruno published the work comment\'s had the 2 back work..

[jerry]

This is boring to me and I\'m sure everyone else so let\'s drop it. Anyone who bought the analysis can draw their own conclusions. As far as TGJB goes, I buy his data, rely on his opinions, especially in big races, and I\'ve learned not to stray from his analysis because I\'ve been burned too many times when I have. His analysis is the best I know of. Good call on Commanding Curve. Looking forward to the final numbers.

[jerry]

Congrats on the 9x 5 of 6. Just out if curiosity, who were the 9 that you used? I ask only because I got beat leaving Danza out of my tri box and I wondered if you used him. I went back through the archives and drew the same conclusion you did about TP horses bouncing off tops or even pair ups. Especially after last years Gemologist and El Padrino melt downs. Whatever happened to those two horses anyhow?

[TGJB]

The ones from the top two groups except for Chrome. And the 3 off big jumps.