A 97 beyer. And late money.

[TreadHead]

You have to keep in mind that the wind impact on the early fractions of this race was far different than anything else run on dirt that day because the entire 1st quarter was run into the wind, unlike all the other races.  The raw time was slower than most recent derbies (22 and 1 or 22 and 2 the past couple years) but it doesn\'t mean that the horses were \"slower\" or putting forth less effort, it just didn\'t show up on the stopwatch because of the wind.

When you reach the backstretch where the wind is finally helping, you are at a point in the race where everyone is trying to get their horses to relax and take a break, so it\'s not surprising you didn\'t see a blazing split here either.

But most importantly, raw time comparisons to the other races even that day may not be valid if the track truly was not watered within an hour of the Derby running.  The track would have been much drier and looser than other races, and this translates to more tiring and slower, especially toward the back end of the race where this would start to take its toll.

[tmon]

Pizzalove what would a fast rail have to do with CC? I don\'t remember CC ever being less then 2/3 wide.

[jp702006]

It was amusing listening to Beyer trying to explain the slow fig on the Byk radio show today. He said all the races before and after the derby were fast. I guess he forgot the part about the wind dying down after the derby and the track being watered.........

[mjellish]

Off the top of my head i would think Chrome more or less paired.  Just look at dust kicking up from the replay of the derby bs earlier dirt races.  Track speed changes.  Thats going to probably put rags and TG users on much different colts for triple crown and later and probably lends to much different pattern takes for a long time.  Will have to see how the each do the day.

[TGJB]

Basically correct on how we did it, putting it up here in a little while. Could conceivably have taken off a point but it would have meant giving good figures to a whole bunch of horses who had trouble, at a mile and a quarter. Think it\'s correct the way I did it.

Jimbo, there\'s an argument to be made the Cal figures are a half point slow, I\'ll watch it.

[HP]

All of this sophisticated figure making talk is over my head so I am going to resort to my usual summary of the Derby when I lose.  

I got the race right
but the horses ran it wrong

[miff]

All three fig makers reporting in so far posted a fig equal to a TG 0(zero)which leads me to believe they have stolen my conversion formula!!

Rags not out yet but had CC app 2 points slower than the other fig makers going in.

[TGJB]

Yeah, but they had him as fast as Tapiture.

They have his top in a sprint as a 2yo, for reasons I have beaten to death here, and there are lots of \"wides\", so they could do pretty much anything without surprising me.

[miff]

Rag pals still ill that a horse that never got back to its 2 yr old top won.I feel badly for them,suggested Kool Aid rehab but stuff too addictive.

[TGJB]

\"Kool Aid\" theory isn\'t the problem when you have major systemic errors in your figures. He HAD gotten back to his top.

And as far as that goes, sheets theory led me to predict that a whole bunch of horses would bounce, and that one was the most likely to run a new top.

[miff]

Hear Rags gave CC a 7.25 which is like TG 3.75. Appears they went off the clock, which is how you could get there. Seems other fig makers went a different way.

[TGJB]

Yeah, they\'re now posted on their site. At the risk of inciting a riot over there, they\'re freakin\' hilarious. Which everyone would see if they posted the full sheets, not just the figure they ran.

The idea behind making and using speed figures, for everyone, is that there is correlation between what figures they ran in the past and what they do now. Anyone who can see correlation between figure histories and what figures the Derby horses were assigned on Jake (or even a pattern) please post here. Forget that they had 19 out of 20 horses, including the winner, going back more than a point-- why THERE? Why not better, or worse?

For the only conceivable answer I can think of, check out \"Changing Track Speeds\" in the Archive section of this site.

There are only three types of people still using Jake. One is guys like Vito, who are completely invested psychologically, all in-- they\'re not open to any discussion of figures or figure making, just bringing up the subject makes them agitated. A second group (which is getting a lot smaller) contains those who have not compared products and methods. The third has some horsemen, who are getting Jake for close to free and don\'t want to pay what I charge.

[richiebee]

Was Horseplayers picked up for a second season?

Is it possible that a show called Figure Makers might be more compelling?

[TGJB]

a) Don\'t know, b) Yes. Please.

I\'ll even act like Christian if it will help.

[vp612]

Look Jerry I don\'t want to discuss figure making because I know as much about it as brain surgery.  I use their data because I believe their numbers.Let\'s put it another way, some people drive BMW,some audi,some honda.It\'s all a matter of choice.I could care less how many customer he has,or you have, means nothing to me.