what he said....

[covelj70]

I am just coming up for air after a long long day and night on Saturday (the trip to the casino in Bethlehem, PA after being at Belmont all day probably wasn\'t necessary)

someone last week put up a great quote that \"I must be nuts to make this my hobby\"

that\'s exactly how I felt on Saturday night

I have to be the only person in the country who made futures bets on Cali Chrome in January and again in March only to lose as much betting against him on Saturday as I made in the futures bets because I am an idiot who overthinks and overanalyzes this race every year

I absolutely hated the winner and the second place finisher through an unprecedented series of overthinking and overanalyzing

I was alive to everything up to the big race including the pick 6 and I didn\'t have Cali Chrome anywhere on any ticket

I still enjoyed the banter ahead of the race this year like never before and I already can\'t wait until next January when I start over thinking and overanalyzing things again

BTW, best part of the day Saturday was that I meant \"Beginner\" from the board and we had a beer together at Big Sandy before the big race.  Absolutely tremendous guy and the kind of person that the game is lucky to be attracting

Good luck to everyone in the rest of the triple crown and thanks again for all of the great thoughts

[HP]

Nuts indeed.  Winner is a special horse.  Ran hard early and dusted them late.  At the head of the stretch I thought they would get to him but he really does have another gear.  No regrets.  If five horses can run zeros I\'m not betting the one that\'s 5/2.  Hats off to the believers, who had to disregard the workout reports to hang in there.

[Beginner]

Jim,

Thanks for the kind words.  Not to sound like too much of a love fest, but Jim\'s online persona only scratches the surface of what a great guy he is.  I wanted to buy him a beer (at least), but instead, he introduced me to all of his friends and paid for the drinks and made me feel incredibly welcome in his box.  Overall, an absolutely fantastic experience.  Thanks again, Jim.  Looking forward to everyone\'s thoughts on the rest of the TC!

Andrew

[covelj70]

btw,

Andrew is too modest to say this himself but he absolutely nutted the race

they almost ran out of cash at Big Sandy paying him

Well done buddy!

[shanahan]

I have to be the only person in the country who made futures bets on Cali Chrome in January and again in March only to lose as much betting against him on Saturday as I made in the futures bets because I am an idiot who overthinks and overanalyzes this race every year

Jim - it\'s a non-exclusive, but very good group of handicappers!  I share your frustration.  I tossed CC out of my bets in that single race, save for the \"all\" button on the late pik 4 - yes the \"all\" button.  

Singled the last 2 winners - only due to Fairmount giving us all SaaMii, which allowed my wife to begin speaking to me again.

[covelj70]

lol

I wasn\'t even smart enough to hit the \"all\" button

I keyed wicked strong in top 4 spots and used 9 (yes 9 horses) in the other slots in the super (including Command curve) and I didn\'t use Cali Chrome

that\'s how stupid I am

I redefined stupity on Saturday

[kmart4503]

It could have been worse...

For the Oaks- I laid out my bet for the tri, super and super high five as follows..

13/11 - 13/11 - 9/4/5 - 9/4/5 - 9/4/5

Only to decide to toss Untapable when I actually got to the window. Ouch... Maybe one to many juleps?? But no worries I gave my thoughts to a friend and watched him cash in and it was his very first time to a track ever much less the Oaks/Derby.  Well worth it though because I\'m sure he\'s hooked for life now and he\'s asking if I want to go to The Preakness.

KMart

[mjellish]

Hey Jim,

It\'s a game of percentages, and hindsight is always 20/20.  I still think if Samraat would have come over on Chrome when he could have before they came out of the first turn we may have seen a completely different result.  And did you see the trip on Wicked Strong?  Brutal.  Must have run a good number anyway and got stopped at least twice while doing it after going really wide on the first turn.

I\'ve had a while to decompress after the Derby as well and I\'m still happy with how I played the race even though all I cashed was a Saver.  It\'s sort of like playing a 3 yr old filly that just ran a -4 in the KY Oaks like Rachel Alexendra to bounce in the Preakness off two weeks rest from the 13 post.  Don\'t see how else you play that race unless the play is not to play at all.  She didn\'t bounce, of course, and turned out to be pretty special that year.  But there are a lot more Dreaming of Julia\'s out there than Rachel Alexandra\'s.

That\'s not to take anything away from anyone who played Chrome on top.  Whoever you are you were right and those of us who didn\'t were wrong.  It\'s that simple.

Looking forward to seeing how the Preakness sets up. Dunno if I\'m going to play it or not.  But if Chrome draws inside whatever speed shows up it could be interesting.  And even if he wins the Preakness I am pretty sure I will be betting All In against him in the Belmont while hoping I don\'t have to suffer through another DaTara beating me and my Dennis of Cork out of a six figure score.  Or at least, this year, that I am smart enough to dope the next DaTara out.

[TreadHead]

Jim, I can\'t remember the exact reasons you said you didn\'t like CCurve, but I think one of them was Welsch\'s workout report?

Just wanted to share Bruno\'s insight on that in case it helps anyone learn for the future.

The work CCurve did 2 back was the only 5 star work he gave for the derby.  Said it was huge and he came home final quarter in 22.3 on a 5F work, galloping out like he was waiting for more commands and could keep going.  I don\'t believe Welsh was on site yet to witness that work.

His last pre-derby workout he gave 3 stars to, but in the comments said that he thought people might mis-understand this work (which apparently many did).  He said that his work before was so awesome, he really only needed a maintenance work to prove he was ready for the Derby, and that\'s exactly what he got.

I thought it was an interesting take, as I myself have apparently been overly focused on the very last Derby work instead of taking a bigger picture view like that.

[Tavasco]

First of all, congrats on your futures score and the wisdom to play against the crowd in the derby.

Your winning with CalChr, while nice, would still have made you just a part of a herd (albeit small). Beating a Derby favorite four times with a bomb on top  would have elevated you to Rock Star Status! Even with likely depressed payouts due to TGJB and his following.

Dumb is relative, maybe even the Derby pool sizes are insufficient for your objectives. Although, I have it on good authority step one is to insure you get paid when you are right. My takeaway - the strategy of beating a favorite and the strategy of capitalizing on a long shot are different, invest accordingly.

Now in an alternative reality, if CalChr (or whatever favorite) had run out and you lost by leaving out a SamRaat or some other fast pricey horse who ran in, then dumb, consequently nine others! not dumb, given your opinion. It Just didn\'t work this time.

Thanks for your interesting insights and stories. P.S. generally regards analysis what good is it to know the answer if you can\'t convince anyone else.

[jp702006]

On more than one occasion I have learned the hard way that, if I write something down, bet it! I feel your pain.

[rhagood]

Don\'t feel bad, someone in know tossed him too.  Per Steve Haskin\'s derby wrap-up on bloodhorse:

Even a skeptic like Dale Romans, trainer of Medal Count, is now a believer. “I didn’t think that California Chrome had any chance going into this race and I was very, very wrong,” he said. “Whether the crop is a good crop or not, that’s a special horse. I was wrong. I was a very big skeptic; I threw him out of all my tickets in every spot. I didn’t think he fit the profile to win the Derby. I’m very impressed the way he came into it, the way he looked, the way he was prepared and the way he ran. Now he has a new fan.”

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/05/05/haskin-s-derby-recap-california-dreamin.aspx#ixzz30uCx8flE

[Silver Charm]

>Don\'t see how else you play that race unless the play is not to play at all.

One of the smartest comments on here in the last 4 weeks (ONE of, there were many others). I bet Intense Holiday but thought Chrome was totally the horse to beat with only his Odds as the knock against him. My logic on Holiday is that was going to be taken way back and make a long extended run like Curve did and pick up the pieces is the fast early speed developed. So why he was laying up a wide trip 5th early I have no idea but it happens. Someone called him a \"Wise Guy\" horse! HUH??? He was 12-1 ML and went off at 13-1. A wise Guy horse is a Super Saver 12-1 ML goes at 7-1 and wins or a Saarland (similar prices) who did nothing.

I really struggle liking anything else. Rosie on the rail getting a cheap lead and saving all the ground? Wasn\'t gonna happen!! Wicked Strong a far back closer who had a brutal trip from the 19 hole? I would have been more shocked if he didn\'t have a brutal trip. At 6-1 TO WIN (not necessarily to hit the board) he was equally unappealing as Chrome at 5/2.

For those who had it all good. For those who didn\'t don\'t doubt yourself. This was one of the hardest Derbies ever to handicap if you were trying to beat The Favorite!!!