First Odds up on Preakness

[boston]

CC is 7.5 to 10 or -132 to win Preakness.
I would have to believe this makes SI around 2.5 or 3 to 1.

[boston]

CC has been bet down to 1 to 2 offshore.

[ajkreider]

The Wynn has SI as the co-2nd choice at 7-1.  Can\'t imagine it\'s there coming out of the gate, but if so it will be with some of my money.

[jbelfior]

SI obviously very talented. Couple of concerns is lack of experience and questionable if he can relax early.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Lost Cause]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SI obviously very talented. Couple of concerns is
> lack of experience and questionable if he can
> relax early.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B

The key to the race will be the draw.  If CC draws outside of SI I think it\'s over with a stalk and pounce trip.

[TGJB]

Fast work for SI today, curious as to what happens in Vegas and England. Oddschecker still has him from 5 to 7-1.

[miff]

SI\'s last four works since the Wood are 3f,3f,4f,4f..all fast. Have to wonder where he will get his route bottom from on Sat.Lotta early gas signed on for the Preakness so if Pimlico keeps playing dull, cuppy, slow and negative speed....a suckup slug may get lucky.

Hopefully, Pim track maintenance will tweak the surface. Rain predicted down there off and on this week so that may also play into it.

[phil23]

One positive note about the whatever the issue was with the foot, there\'s been zero talk at all of any antibiotics used to treat him (unlike say Vyjack or Smooth Air). Something Sanchez seemed to affirm today in the drf article:


Social Inclusion was found to have a bruised right-front hoof, and he was scratched from the Sir Bear. Owner Ron Sanchez said Social Inclusion was treated with natural remedies, kept from training on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, and taken back to the track last Tuesday after getting sound on the foot again.

“I was a little concerned, but when I saw him galloping again, I knew it was all right,” Sanchez said. “He’s fine now. Just look at the way he worked.”

[TGJB]

There\'s also some chance the injury was invented. Running in that 75k stake would have been nuts, and they might have realized it. He \"recovered\" awful fast.

[JoseOcon]

I was thinking same thing.  Maybe the horse is too good and they want better odds.  I like the horse and I will bet him.

[boston]

I just bet CC not to win Preakness at +140 (7 to 5).

[boston]

By the offshore odds CC has a 57.5% chance of winning the Preakness.  Also by the offshore odds CC has a 28.5% of winning Triple Crown.  Therefore, the oddsmakers (now bettors) believe that if CC wins the Preakness he has a 50% chance of getting to and then winning the Belmont.

[Rick B.]

boston Wrote:
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> Therefore, the oddsmakers (now bettors) believe
> that if CC wins the Preakness he has a 50% chance
> of getting to and then winning the Belmont.

Good Lord, where can I bet against this?

[smalltimer]

Rick B.,
Chrome\'s spacing between races since November has been:
57/51/34/42/36/28 and now 14 days.
Seems with 3-4 other speed types in the Preakness, if they all break well it should take a fair amount of effort for Chrome to reach the front by the top of the stretch.
I\'m not concerned if he wins or not, I just want him to have to work hard for at least a mile plus.
His wins have been easy, it might be interesting to see how he finishes if he\'s really pushed a long way.