Tonalist

[miff]

Tonalist received a 101 Beyer(TG 0 zerish) for his impressive wet track win. If it wasn\'t just the slop, his improved early speed a sign of development.

Commissioners 7\'s a bit slow going in, merits review.

[TGJB]

All of them?

Ark Derby figures have come out looking pretty good. That aside, Covello\'s Crush didn\'t figure to stay at the 7 level forever-- if indeed he even moved now.

[miff]

JB,

No, only 5.5 at Sunland and 4.5 at GP on 1/3. You are going to have to give him a 3 to 5 point for yesterday unless you are wildly in disagreement with Beyer and one other service.

Yesterday, kinda straight forward on the clock, esp preceding and following races surrounding PP.

Mike

[TGJB]

Haven\'t looked at the work but if he gets more than a 1 point new top the next two also get new tops, along with the winner. With rain and a very long straightaway there\'s nothing straightforward with the race or day.

I\'ve been checking the Sunland race regularly, looks right.

[miff]

A one point top for for Comm (or TG 6) would mean the winner paired or went back, race much faster than that.

So what if others ran tops? what does that even mean? They time races for a reason.

[TGJB]

If the winner pairs the second horse would get about a 1 point new top (saved ground), third horse also about a 1 point new top, next about a pair or slight backward move. You might be able to move it a little forward from there but not much.

Yes, they time the races. And where you go with those times depends on the assumptions you make. On a day like yesterday very few (if any) are safe.

I don\'t think I\'ve told this story before because some might not believe it, and the guys on the Jake board (including Jake) won\'t want to. Back when I was over there (before Jake was) they either had a tele-timer malfunction or a blizzard at Keystone, the net was there were no times for the races. Ragozin-- who had an ego unmatched this side of Howard Cosell-- did the day anyway, using just the relationships within each race. Timer schmimer, don\'t need it.

And then he sent what he decided the right times were to Keystone. Seriously.

[ajkreider]

Even it it was only a pair, off a ten week layoff and being lightly raced, it sets him up to forward.  Makes him a real player in the Belmont.

Would love to know if the Rags guys had tried that when the times could be verified.

[Silver Charm]

30 yards from the wire I received two Text messages declaring this horse the Belmont Winner!! Maybe! I myself was not surprised at the early speed he showed. I figured he would be sent and the Calder horse was cheap. A Belmont win would be a good one for Trainer Christophe Clement and pad a then Hall of Fame worthy career.

As far as the Preakness goes I hope Chrome wins. But not for the same reason as those with their knives and forks ready to Kill the Turkey and drive a Stake thru the Hearts of his adoring California Fans and HIT for a Big Score come Belmont Day. I actually think with a Triple Crown on the line, a 100,000 people in the stands and Wicked Strong, Tonalist, Danza and Commanding Curve in the race it will be a very good Betting race and one for the Fans to enjoy. And with THAT field plus a few others.....Chrome wont be so odds on as many may think.

But there is still work to do this Saturday. Lets hope the weather report for Saturday stays right where it is as of now....

[TGJB]

Miff-- sat Belmont was anything but straightforward, with rain, wind changes, and big changes in track speed. No zero for Tonalist.

[miff]

Reverse engineering is a slippery slope.At worse, it could be 1.5, no way he paired 3.5

[TGJB]

I gave him a new top, but there definitely was a way he could have paired.

Just for the heck of it, define \"reverse engineering\" in this context.

[miff]

Let\'s just say with your MO of looking back/projecting off a VERY slow Commissioner(7 top)and the rest, will come up on the slower side than most,except Rags,a wire, lower than scale weight, and wet track which come up slow there for some unknown reason.

Fair question. If you had Comm with a top of 4.5 instead of 7, what would the figures be for the winner, Comm and the rest? I know the answer. Disregarding the clock relative to ALL the one turn routes does not produce the most representative figure,imo.

Mike

[TGJB]

You didn\'t define the term. You will find that no matter what definition you come up with, ALL speed figures are made by \"reverse engineering\". The technical term for what we do is regression analysis, according to the head of Math at RPI-- who also used to be a guitarist for Commander Cody.

[moosepalm]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> technical term for what we do is regression
> analysis, according to the head of Math at RPI--
> who also used to be a guitarist for Commander
> Cody.

I was an avid follower of Commander Cody and the Lost Planet Airmen when they would absolutely tear the roof off road houses and juke joints.  Best bar band I ever saw.  Regression analysis sounds like something they could have done on me back then.