Comment on ROTW Analysis

[tommyG]

I like the ROTW analysis and the horses it ends up on.  However, I was wondering how the analysis might be changed if the big rains come and the track is OFF on Saturday.

I know the sample sizes are small, but the TGI for the top two ML favorites (CC, SI) are among the worst differentials from DIRT to OFF...like 5 pts worse.  I can dream, but might it be possible neither one hits the board on an off track?

I guess the question for TGJB:  any feel for whether an off track is a big negative for either CC or SI based on TG data?  Or the samples just too small?

[rhagood]

Chrome\'s consistency is what makes it hard to not put him on top, no on else is ready to explode. Agree with the analysis and will include those mentioned.

1. He pulled after after the derby and was not stressed in any fashion per outrider\'s comments:

\"Just how freaky is this remarkable colt, who never regresses off his huge victories and who defies the experts? Churchill Downs outrider Greg Blasi, who has led back the last nine Kentucky Derby winners, said California Chrome “wouldn’t of blow out a match after the race.” He said he had never seen anything like it. It is apparent this is an extraordinarily fit horse who must have an exceptional heart and lung capacity, especially considering he’s been in steady training since April of last year and never had a break between 2 and 3.

Usually the Derby winner is pretty tired and hot right after the race, but when I was bringing him back, he was prancing and dancing,” Blasi added. “He actually was hotter walking to the paddock than he was after the race. He didn’t look like a horse who had just run a mile and a quarter. Most horses will have that crease on their back after a race; we call it being quartered up. But he wasn’t quartered up at all. I have to say, he left an impression on me. It’s a tribute to the trainer that he wasn’t even tired after the race.

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/05/05/haskin-s-derby-recap-california-dreamin.aspx#ixzz31knoIeKQ

2. He may not have even cared for the surface but seems to like Pimlico per exercise rider:

\"Delgado said California Chrome seemed to prefer the dirt at Pimlico to that at Churchill Downs. “Churchill wasn’t one of his favorite tracks,” he said. “He just tolerated it.”

Read more: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/horse-racing/preakness/bal-california-chrome-takes-liking-to-pimlico-track-in-first-workout-20140513,0,967496.story?page=2#ixzz31kmIQM6j

3. He has put on weight (not missed an oat), Orb dropped weight after the Derby and ran flat as a pancake:

\"Though Sherman is not keen on running California Chrome back on two weeks’ rest, he is happy with the way California Chrome looks physically, estimating he has put on 35 pounds since the Derby.\" per DRF today

[Michael D.]

tommyG Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I like the ROTW analysis and the horses it ends up
> on.  However, I was wondering how the analysis
> might be changed if the big rains come and the
> track is OFF on Saturday.
>
> I know the sample sizes are small, but the TGI for
> the top two ML favorites (CC, SI) are among the
> worst differentials from DIRT to OFF...like 5 pts
> worse.  I can dream, but might it be possible
> neither one hits the board on an off track?
>
> I guess the question for TGJB:  any feel for
> whether an off track is a big negative for either
> CC or SI based on TG data?  Or the samples just
> too small?


the sample sizes are too small, way too small when it comes to SI (a handful of colts most making one start).

SI\'s sire PotN ran well in the slop, and he\'s got Saint Ballado and Runaway Groom below. tough call for a colt with only 3 starts, but he has the speed.

if the track is wet fast or on the quick side at all, Social Inclusion is the only horse I could even contemplate betting. no opinion yet if it\'s favoring closers.

[TGJB]

I did look at the race re an off track, and decided there wasn\'t enough to affect my opinions.

[richiebee]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> the sample sizes are too small, way too small when
> it comes to SI (a handful of colts most making one
> start).
>
> SI\'s sire PotN ran well in the slop, and he\'s got
> Saint Ballado and Runaway Groom below. tough call
> for a colt with only 3 starts, but he has the
> speed.
>
> if the track is wet fast or on the quick side at
> all, Social Inclusion is the only horse I could
> even contemplate betting. no opinion yet if it\'s
> favoring closers.

Mike forgetting about his breeding, this individual has only 3 LT starts and
has never won a \"sweepstake\" as they say in the conditions for the Sir Barton,
a race SI, PDM and ROC are all eligible for. Has a Preakness winner ever
entered the race with three LT starts?/ How many have been entered? We need
MORE statistics!

If you are mainlining the kool aid and recognizing a speed bias prior to the
Preakness, I couldn\'t argue with SI being your guy.

PDM\'s races at GP were not that bad, running behind Wildcat Red and the
General, and he will probably prove to be better around two turns. Wish WW
would have staged one of PDM\'s 3/4 mile works at CD, but what do I know? PDM
probably will try lo leave with SI to his inside and establish position. I
guess I rate him somewhere between a pace factor and a possibility for the
exacta. He\'s 20/1 ML and, as I mentioned, eligible but not entered for the Sir
Barton. Certainly hardly sustainable if you are sipping the liquid, if you
back him you must hope it is a case of an improving Giant\'s Causeway colt
rather than a fella who is really sorry they will be ripping up the all
weather at Kee.

[Michael D.]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>  
> > the sample sizes are too small, way too small
> when
> > it comes to SI (a handful of colts most making
> one
> > start).
> >
> > SI\'s sire PotN ran well in the slop, and he\'s
> got
> > Saint Ballado and Runaway Groom below. tough
> call
> > for a colt with only 3 starts, but he has the
> > speed.
> >
> > if the track is wet fast or on the quick side
> at
> > all, Social Inclusion is the only horse I could
> > even contemplate betting. no opinion yet if
> it\'s
> > favoring closers.
>
> Mike forgetting about his breeding, this
> individual has only 3 LT starts and
> has never won a \"sweepstake\" as they say in the
> conditions for the Sir Barton,
> a race SI, PDM and ROC are all eligible for. Has a
> Preakness winner ever
> entered the race with three LT starts?/ How many
> have been entered? We need
> MORE statistics!


I think I gave out the 22K super with a $24 ticket the last time one ran (under very unfortunate circumstances).


> If you are mainlining the kool aid and recognizing
> a speed bias prior to the
> Preakness, I couldn\'t argue with SI being your
> guy.
>
> PDM\'s races at GP were not that bad, running
> behind Wildcat Red and the
> General, and he will probably prove to be better
> around two turns. Wish WW
> would have staged one of PDM\'s 3/4 mile works at
> CD, but what do I know? PDM
> probably will try lo leave with SI to his inside
> and establish position. I
> guess I rate him somewhere between a pace factor
> and a possibility for the
> exacta. He\'s 20/1 ML and, as I mentioned, eligible
> but not entered for the Sir
> Barton. Certainly hardly sustainable if you are
> sipping the liquid, if you
> back him you must hope it is a case of an
> improving Giant\'s Causeway colt
> rather than a fella who is really sorry they will
> be ripping up the all
> weather at Kee.