speed figures like all derivatives can be misleading

[smithkent]

Speed figures are derived from a real hooves on the ground race

They are very useful to find talented horses that are being overlooked by other handicapping tools.  I\'m amazed at the number of high priced winners that are posted here in the ROTW

However, like all derivatives, they have limitations.  I see many discussions here about pattern interpretation or discussions about the quality of the horses in the Derby because the derived numbers were lower than expected

Beyer has an article in DRF today where he twists himself into a knot explaining why CC is the favorite, but is vulnerable due to a lower assigned Beyer number in the Derby

You have to cross check the derived data from real life.  I saw the Derby winner trounce that large field with a turn of foot that is exceptional, not demonstrated by any other of the contenders.  It was not a close race.  Dont be surprised to see a similar demolition this time around

He crushed the Kentucky Derby field, and is in solid shape, with his foundation being so much more solid than the others- Social Inclusion is going in only his 4th race, and this is a greater distance than any of his earlier

California Chrome is a deserving favorite this Saturday.  My greatest worry is a Barbaro like mishap taking him out.

[TGJB]

Yeah, I saw that article. \"Howling\" about the track changing speed? Really, Andy? Howling?

I\'ll show you some howling.

Funny thing is he quotes Ragozin as also having it very slow. Andy actually broke the race out too, had it much closer to the way we did than to Jake.

[FrankD.]

Smithkent,

In the words of Harvey Pack who spoke of guys like you who simplified this game to \" this is easy status\" Have a good life!

Frank D

[smithkent]

You get the wrong idea

this is the hardest game out there, and I am awed by the knowledge of the people who post here

sometimes the smartest people make it harder than it is.  I suggest that\'s the case this time around for the Triple Crown races

CC looks to be an exceptional talent by every measure right now,  especially in the one that counts-winning the horse race

[FrankD.]

Take your 3/5 and enjoy your life.

Better yet send me a private message and bet all you want on a delicatessen to win a pickle!

[plasticman]

This game is about edges and not about \"talent\". If you know that CC is exceptional and everyone else knows it too, where\'s your \"Edge\"?

Bet on edges, bet on overlays, not talent. Horse talent and what you see on the track visually can be misleading, but the final win price is not. That\'s the math part of betting and people who bet 3-5s that look unbeatable on paper aren\'t going to fare very well in the long run as positive expectation wagering opportunities.

Also, the Preakness is a very tricky race to bet a favorite because of what\'s at stake. They\'re not going to rest this horse if the Derby knocked him out, if he has a minor hiccup in training, they\'re going to err on the side of racing him. You could be betting on a horse who shouldnt be racing, but you won\'t know until after the fact when all the excuses come in.

[TGJB]

That last paragraph is important. There\'s a reason almost all the Derby starters over the last few years have skipped this race.

[P-Dub]

He didn\'t say he was pounding 3/5 shots. He also didn\'t get into a discussion about value, edges, etc.. Geezus relax guys.

He merely stated that he feels CC is a deserving favorite. That\'s it.

It\'s not as if he said CC needs to run on special dirt.

[Bet Twice]

Agree with Paul, the guy was just saying cc looks like something special.

Speaking of which, thought I just got something while in the gym related to him having a cough - anyone here anything along those lines?

[Bet Twice]

Found it....

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/triplecrown2014/story/_/id/10936902/2014-triple-crown-california-chrome-treated-cough-blister

[smithkent]

Well, you can turn that around and look at it differently.  One big thing about CC that is different than the competition is race experience and fitness

Since he came from the lower ranks as far as breeding goes, the money invested in him was far less.  He was not that dominant till he got some races under his belt, and got a quality jockey

He is more similar to the old style training up to his 3 year old season, since the owners had less $$ to lose in racing him.  So often the modern training is focused on avoiding injury to an expensive animal rather than getting him optimally fit for the grueling TC run

Rather than think of his additional races as detrimental, maybe this will be to his advantage

The thing I love about racing is you get to endlessly speculate, and then see the results on the track...

[TGJB]

The thing I like is the horses go off different odds.

[eljayar52]

Whether or not CC is the real deal the Triple Crown needs to be restructured.It seems that two weeks then three weeks is simply too much to ask of thoroughbreds these days. Horse racing needs another TC champion and the first Saturdays of May June and July would certainly help.

[Gerard]

Besides injury, what would it take for the winner to actually skip this race? Then maybe they\'d seriously address this arcane format. You just need one trainer and one owner(s), one of these years hopefully.

[kencbs]

Off the top of my head, it\'s happened twice.  Gato Del Sol (trainer didn\'t think it was in the best interest of the horse), and Spend A Buck (they went chasing after a bigger purse in the Jersey Derby).

Ken