Betting strategies

[Holybull1]

I would love to hear some thoughts on how to actually bet the Preakness, especially if you have a strong opinion of one horse.  The obvious answer is \"Bet to Win or Win/Place\".  But the big pools on Preakness day combined with the giant payoffs if Cal Chrome runs out of the money make the exotics very attractive.  Or....if you have a price horse, you might want to use him with CC and SI for example, as they are the most likely to top or fill out exotics.

As an example, if you really love General A Rod (or Kid Cruz, Pablo, etc) and have say a $400 budget for the race, how do you bet?  I suppose it depends on your opinion of CC and SI\'s chances, right?  Or do you not \"hedge\" with the chalk?

This board is great with handicapping discussion, so I\'m sure there is a lot of wagering knowledge here too.   The reason I ask, is I feel like I always make the worst wagers possible.  I bet Win when the logical trifecta\'s pay 4 figures and bet tri\'s and pick 3\'s when Win would have been much better.

[CHOWDERMAN]

this race reminds me of the year funny cide won...

i had funny cide on top of midway road in exactas, tris and supers and mashed the race...

i like chrome on top of kid cruz...cold exacta, and the tris and supers are going to put gen arod and ride on curlin..

chrome has the perfect set up here with dueling speed horses, social inclusion, bayern, ring weekend....maybe gen arod also..

kid cruz should be able to pick up the pieces for second...his number fits, and after watching him close into a crawling pace in his last, i think with a faster pace his chances only increase....however, won\'t play him to win because chrome will jump on the same pace, but he\'ll be too far ahead for cruz to catch him..

this is the only way to play this race vertically in my opinion..

when i went this way with funny cide, i invested about $200 in the race and came out with over $3500....the key was midway road finishing ahead of peace rules...

same here....kid cruz finishing ahead of social inclusion who should be second choice, and a bad one at that, as his odds may plummet down to the 7/2 range...

just hope cruz is around the ML 20-1....GOOD LUCK...

[lovetwogamble]

Found this board about a year ago, and it has raised my level of handicapping expertise.  My pocketbook thanks you.

Question:  As I read the TG tea leaves is there any chance of Ria Antonia hitting the super? (Not saying she can win, but she has seemed to have paired up and if you believe Baffert would have got this one to improve in the short time he had her, wouldn\'t Amoss be the benefactor?)  If weight is worth 1 point, it wouldn\'t be a far fetched theory to believe she may run a new top (around a 2 or 3?)  which would put her close to what could be a super finish at a great price?  Don\'t bash me here, but  . . .  your thoughts?

BTW, my main play is a CC with Curlin, $100 straight exacta.  I\'ll throw in a $10 reverse to get my thrills.  Thanks guys.

[jbelfior]

Chowder:
Hard to imagine anyone running early with SI assuming he breaks well.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[SoCalMan2]

Holybull1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I would love to hear some thoughts on how to
> actually bet the Preakness, especially if you have
> a strong opinion of one horse.  The obvious answer
> is \"Bet to Win or Win/Place\".  But the big pools
> on Preakness day combined with the giant payoffs
> if Cal Chrome runs out of the money make the
> exotics very attractive.  Or....if you have a
> price horse, you might want to use him with CC and
> SI for example, as they are the most likely to top
> or fill out exotics.
>
> As an example, if you really love General A Rod
> (or Kid Cruz, Pablo, etc) and have say a $400
> budget for the race, how do you bet?  I suppose it
> depends on your opinion of CC and SI\'s chances,
> right?  Or do you not \"hedge\" with the chalk?
>
> This board is great with handicapping discussion,
> so I\'m sure there is a lot of wagering knowledge
> here too.   The reason I ask, is I feel like I
> always make the worst wagers possible.  I bet Win
> when the logical trifecta\'s pay 4 figures and bet
> tri\'s and pick 3\'s when Win would have been much
> better.

Ignoring horizontal bets for the moment, if you feel the way you do... I would do something like this.....

$75 win and place on GAR
$50 exactas, GAR underneath the favorite and second choice

then, trifectas using GAR in each of the three positions with the other positions filled out with one being price horses that have a chance and the other position being all logical contenders plus price horses.  If you have 3 price horses and 3 logical contenders, you trifecta play would cost $90 for a $1 bet;

for supers, I would do two types...first, put the favorite and second favorite in the top position only and then fill in the last three holes with the bets that are the tri bets.  The second type would be something like ABCC, ACBC, ACCB,BACC,CABC, CACB, BCAC, BCCA, CBAC,CBCA where A is GAR, B is the price horses and C is the logical contenders plus the price horses.

Hope this makes sense....

[metroj]

Ward\'s intentions were to send Pable Del Monte in the Derby had they decided to run, have to think he\'s at least part of the pace in the Preakness.

[rhagood]

No specifics and there is no easy answer here but some general observations:

Learn from your mistakes and adjust accordingly (let those hard lessons guide you forward), trust your instincts and as Jerry and others have stated, match your opinions to your wagers when they offer value to you.  In other words, you define value, not others who determine the actual odds.

Each race or series of races  offers different challenges/opportunities so there is no blanket policy.  You must begin to handicap yourself first and find your niche, where your insights begin to better match the results and then exploit those types of races where you find an edge.

Best of luck