Memories of Big Brown Belmont

[TGJB]

Kent-- that\'s EXACTLY what most of us here did with that Belmont. The problem was that going in D\'Tara was impossible. I think he might have been the only horse I threw out completely other than BB.

And by the way, he was still impossible coming out. If anyone trained him but Zito, who turned out to be the king of getting horses to run off non-efforts in big races. But one reason we know that is-- D\'Tara.

[sekrah]

I always suspected that your number for Da\'Tara for his previous performance at Pimlico was too slow due to a rail bias.

I was rooting against Big Brown because his connections were among the most scumiest in all of the racing industry.  That\'s saying something.

[jimbo66]

Smith kent,

Sorry as this is gonna sound very condescending, but if u believe what u wrote u may not be ready for this board.

It didn\'t take a lot of experience to see big brown was a finished horse after 3/4 of a mile.  Desmormeaux did nothing wrong.  Obvious to any regular horse race watcher.  

As for scores, it wasn\'t easy to have the winner.  Most on this board seldom hit the \"all button\" and need a reason to bet a horse.  D\'Tara was a can of shit before and after the Belmont.  Hard to use.  Many of us used the horses that ran 2-3-4 or even 2-3-4-5-6.  

Tough winner to have.  

I don\'t think this years Belmont is comparable at all to that one.   First off, as much as I do believe chrome has been the best horse before and after the last two races, he faces a much better field than big brown did.   If they all show up, chrome is 50/50 at best to win.    Big brown ran in the 4 path all the way around to crush the derby field and was asked for about 1/8th of a mile to crush the Preakness field.  He seemed light years ahead of his competition.  Chrome is better than his competition but even his biggest supporters wouldn\'t say light years. Secondly, chrome won\'t be 1-4 or close to it.   Tonalist, wicked strong, danza, and commanding curve all HAVE TO go off single digit odds IMO.  That means chrome can\'t be lower than 4-5.  Lastly, we don\'t have the x fsctors that big brown had.  He had steroids off, bad feet, plus normal \"triple crown wear and tear\" bounce, along with being trained by a move up trainer who may or may not try or get away with something regarding drug on Belmont day.   All those fsctors made big brown a potential \"off the board\" candidate, if he didn\'t whistle.  With chrome, he may not get the distance or he may have emptied out in the Preakness but those other factors don\'t exist.  I would be very surprised if he doesn\'t have a representative showing in the Belmont. (Meaning on the board somewhere).  I don\'t think playing him to collapse and be out of the money vertically is the way to go.   Personally prefer a horizontal play keying others to win.   Tonalist and wicked strong as my choices.

[smithkent]

all you folks are so suspicious here about the drug use in horses, analyzing the data to show who is suspicious- and with good cause

Yet in that Belmont, the horse was stopped by the actions of his jockey, in quite a mysterious way, never fully explained to the betting public

Given the seediness of his owners and trainer, acknowledged steroid using, etc, you HAVE to concede the possibility that it was a fixed result.  

Sure, owning a triple crown horse would be lucrative, but this outfit obviously was playing a different game than we do- that Deadspin article is shocking

I DO think I will play some backups to CC in the big race, just to take into account the murkiness of our game when there is so much money on the line, as well as it may just be too much for him to pull it off.

I\'m also kinda suspicious of Ill Have Another being abruptly pulled from the Belmont a couple of years ago, then abruptly being sold to Japanese owners.

  Sometimes things in racing are not as they first seem...

[smalltimer]

smith,
Lot of us on the board are suspicious of 2 trainers who have been suspended 100 times combined.  When you have Graham Motion with over 10,000 starts and no drug violations that\'s a big disparity.
If you watch the replay, its obviously Kent starting asking the horse just prior to the mile mark.  He asked him and nothing, asked him again and nothing again, so it appears at just after midpoint of the race Brown had nothing.
Even as they headed into the first turn, Brown moved way too far off the rail almost as if he knew where Kent wanted him to go, but the legs didn\'t cooperate. If Desormeaux knew that he had plenty in the tank, he could have sat patiently around the turn and then move to the outside. And why not, Brown had been so dominant most players wouldn\'t care if the horse lost a little ground in a 1 1/2 mile race.  
I\'ve always thought horses that can\'t make a tight turn are showing signs of being tired, even though the race was 20 seconds old and the turns are so sweeping at Belmont.  It\'s also possible Brown was a little rank early, throwing is head early on and the turn just came up faster than expected.
I was thrilled that Brown was beaten, I was also thrilled when O\'Neill scratched IHA prior to the Belmont.  
Dutrow or O\'Neill as the winner of the Triple Crown would have been disgusting.
At least if Chrome pulls it off, the history of Sherman hasn\'t been overshadowed by chronic suspensions due to medications.
I\'m just speculating about everything here except the idea that horse racing\'s next Triple Crown winner should come from a barn with connections that haven\'t been marred in cheating for years and years and years. FWIW.

[moosepalm]

Maybe in a Dick Francis novel.

[Tavasco]

On the subject of unabashed speculation. What are we to think when Mr. Bad Example Dutrow goes toe-to-toe with the clueless clowns for $20M. My guess is incompetence trumps impropriety. Clowns lose. Due process, transparency, intrigue, conspiracy I know so little on the legal subject, all I can do is speculate. But I will stop short of asserting truth based on my imagination.

[rhagood]

a I had cashed nicely on Big Brown in the Derby so I booked a trip for the Belmont even getting the last grandstand seats through NYRA at the top of the stretch before they quickly sold out. It was my first visit back to NY since 1989, I had worked and lived at Belmont for several meets in the late Eighties.  I remember the heat was stifling and they closed off the bathrooms after shutting off the water,  What a disaster, then Big Brown pulls up right in front of our eyes and I say to the wife let\'s get out of here.  Luckily I knew to avoid the Belmont train back to the city and we walked a short 15 minutes to the Jamaica/Queens line avoiding the crush. It was my only winning move of the day.
We did enjoy the city the next day and seeing the hole that was the World Trade Center was a moving reminder that horse racing whether winning or losing is only a game.

[PapaChach]

I have a long and sad story to tell about that Belmont, but not now.

Belmont and NY changed a lot between 1989 and 2008. In the old days you could pretty much smoke up anywhere, a la the staircases up by the blue seats in Ranger games. Man, I remember my first time up in the blue seats like it was yesterday. I couldn\'t believe people acted so brazenly, in such an obvious place.

Right before the gates opened for the \'89 Belmont, Bags called me and took down a huge hit over the phone.

I didn\'t dream to misbehave like that when I went to the Belmont my one and only time, the time I went to see Charismatic win it all.

There used to be a web forum back then based off the bloodhorse, it\'s not there anymore, but I\'d bet some of those guys found their way here, even if they just watch in silence now.

Some guys on that forum loved Lemon Drop Kid that day. I\'d done some good damage earlier on the card, think I won about $400, laugh all you want, but back in 1999, with her not working and me working part-time, four hundred bucks was a lot of money. It made our life together a little easier for a few weeks.

I\'d won mostly on the filly turf race that\'s now the Just A Game, I think. This whole TG form-cycle thing had me at hello, it seemed to work even better, for me anyway, in turf races.

My buddy suggested to me that Vision and Verse had a chance to at least run in there at 55-1. I patiently explained to him how the Illinois Derby was a total dud as a Belmont prep race. Upon my stellar recommendation, we tossed him.

We made very small win bets on LDK and boxed him in exactas and tris with Charismatic and some thing other than Vision and Verse. At least we got the win money, but we still get queasy thinking about what might have been had I not haughtily dismissed Vision and Verse.

One of these days we\'re going to come up with some ridiculous reason to like something as ridiculous as Da Tara and we\'re going to cash in like pirates. No. seriously........

[Rick B.]

smithkent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yet in that Belmont, the horse was stopped by the
> actions of his jockey, in quite a mysterious way,
> never fully explained to the betting public
>
> Given the seediness of his owners and trainer,
> acknowledged steroid using, etc, you HAVE to
> concede the possibility that it was a fixed
> result.  
>
> Sure, owning a triple crown horse would be
> lucrative, but this outfit obviously was playing a
> different game than we do- that Deadspin article
> is shocking
>
> I DO think I will play some backups to CC in the
> big race, just to take into account the murkiness
> of our game when there is so much money on the
> line, as well as it may just be too much for him
> to pull it off.
>
> I\'m also kinda suspicious of Ill Have Another
> being abruptly pulled from the Belmont a couple of
> years ago, then abruptly being sold to Japanese
> owners.
>
> Sometimes things in racing are not as they first
> seem...

Big Brown, suspicious...I\'ll Have Another, suspicious.

Cal Chrome, need alternate / cover bets, in case \"they\"
do something...

I\'ll ask you the same thing I ask my brother, who
fervently studies the faces of a horse\'s connections,
looking for \"something suspicious\":

If cheating is SO rampant -- even at the highest levels --
why do you still bet on horses?

[jerry]

The same reason people still smoke. It feels good even though you know it\'s bad for you.

[jerry]

Right.

[Tavasco]

Does look odd. Could it be something with the horse, he did an Intense Holiday into the #3 several jumps earlier. He didn\'t get taken down! Looked a winner until  #7 ran by. Curious?

[Tavasco]

The chart comments point out he was lugging in the last 40 yds. Assume you needed him to win. Scheiskopf! Overall Centano does a good job IMO.