Medal Count in Belmont

[justwin]

Certainly will handle the distance. Improving colt gets a race with 5 weeks rest now. Could be a spoiler.

[Tavasco]

Medal Count is a puzzle to me. I\'m unconvinced he is improving. I do like him at the distance. His Keeneland races are questionable to me. One taken off the turf and the other a pace meltdown.

I agree he could be a spoiler just on stamina. The type that could win the Belmont and never win another race. Then there is the class issue. For me it still is a question of does CC have 1+1/2 stamina?

An interesting addition.

[Niall]

Way back 3 weeks or so ago there was a ton mentioned about bad trips in the Ky Drby, this one among them. I thought a few times about chiming in but was pretty sure it was going to change the result. I firmly and resolutely believe that Danza cost me my super saver. Redboarding for sure and it was only for .50 but it would have let me upgrade to one of those private tents at Mtn Jam instead of the regular camping I\'m going to have to do ... Missing my 1st Belmont in quite some time, but decided that since NYRA puts on such a good show I would do something different. For those going here is a different way to enjoy. Take the LIRR or drive into Floral Park. Have a bevie at Fallons and take the free shuttle bus over. When leaving, leave from the backstretch of Belmont and cut through the west end of town. There are some cabs there and it is a bit of a hike ... well worth it though if you must go ... Oh Medal Count. I\'m using ... Enjoy everybody

[P-Dub]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Medal Count is a puzzle to me. I\'m unconvinced he
> is improving. I do like him at the distance. His
> Keeneland races are questionable to me. One taken
> off the turf and the other a pace meltdown.
>
> I agree he could be a spoiler just on stamina. The
> type that could win the Belmont and never win
> another race. Then there is the class issue. For
> me it still is a question of does CC have 1+1/2
> stamina?
>
> An interesting addition.

This ought to be good to discuss around here.

[Rick B.]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tavasco Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Medal Count is a puzzle to me...
> > Then there is the class issue.
>
> This ought to be good to discuss around here.

Maybe.

If Medal Count wins the Belmont, he is the class
of the race, right?

We can only affirm class *after* a race, it seems...
but there is another word for this, and I was
taught that decent horseplayers don\'t indulge in it.

[johnnym]

Agree; Danza cost Medal Count of hitting the money in the Derby.
Medal Count is an improving horse and will be on my tix in the exotics.
Good Luck..

[Tavasco]

This is what really puzzles me. What to think of Medal Counts Blue Grass #. It was a big jump up from an otherwise very ordinary history. It was mostly about ground loss. His competition, in hindsight, has not yet proven to be stellar.

So pattern experts will want to speculate based on generalizations and bounce theorists will include/exclude based on esoteric facts they believe. Many want their smart money back, lost betting against CC and long for another realistic  contender.

Now, I was just messin with ya regards the class comment, kinda sorry about that. The kerosene is... does the -0 @KEE pass your usefulness test? It just seems an anomaly to me. Would the pattern be 0-2- with x coming without Danza\'a  blockade?

My opinion is further complicated by my respect for Jim Covello\'s info sources coupled with his April confidence in this one. I expect a tempting price!

Reflecting on his last race for general information - Who did he beat in order of finish?


Bluegrass Stakes Clock

23:58    47:59    1:12.74       1:37.83       1:50.06
                         (25:09)       (12:23)

Dance With Fate - Non threatening 6th in Derby connections say headed for turf

Medal Count - troubled 8th in Derby steadied. Headed for BEL Stakes & some optimists will speculate the -0 reflects current ability.

Pablo Del Monte - sets a pace then fades came back in Preakness did same thing.

Big Bazinga - Has not run since the Bluegrass only win in career came in MSW @ WO 1st lifetime start. 7-1-2-0.

Coltimus  Prime - Came back in WO Alw failed to hold lead ran 2nd @ 3/5

Gala Award - Came back on the turf @ BEL in a 200K stakes and won beating four!

So Lonesome - Hasn\'t run back?

Asserting Bear - Came back in a listed stakes @ WO and sorta won but got DQ\'d and placed 3rd.

Casiguapo - Came back in Sir Bear @ GP chased pace and faded to the rear.

Coastline - Has not run back.

ExtrasexyHippzter - Came back in a sprint on Preakness under card trailed field start to finish.

BobbysKitten - Has not run back.

HarrysHoliday - Ran 16th in Derby @ 44/1

Vinceremos - Ran 17th in Derby @ 49/1 some TG analysis liked his value in derby doubt anyone likes him now.

[big18741]

I think in most years a ground saving TG 1 would be good enough to win the Belmont.

Medal Count seems to have bounced out of the Derby well(5f bullet last Saturday)
I think if he works well at Belmont this weekend(not too fast like Dullahan 4f\'s in 45)and draws inside he might be capable of running the 1 here.Albarado can\'t lose ground and he can\'t move early like he did in the BG.

As far as the BG # and projecting a Derby # with a clean run I leave that to others.Who you beat or ran with doesn\'t always matter in this particular race.
Plenty of winners,board hitters in the Belmont ran against slop coming into it.

[vagrant]

Figures aside, the Blue Grass showed that Medal Count moved forward, which is what you\'re looking for from spring 3YOs. He followed up with a career-high on dirt, despite a troubled trip. That\'s not a bad profile.

Medal Count is by a late-developing sire and has been pretty precocious nonetheless. It\'s not stretching much to think that he *might* break through next Sat. Lord knows that less distinguished, less genetically blessed horses have done so on Belmont Day.

[Tavasco]

Vagrant:

I don\'t understand your point \"He followed up with a career high on dirt\" he regressed on the Derby Dirt per TG Sheets from zero to four.

On second reading I guess you mean his fastest career dirt surface race. I can appreciate the significance of that.

Your vote seems to be for a not bad profile/pattern. Overall Improved/Improving. Other than his reaction @2 to his good 2nd race steady development.

I\'m selling myself on this one. Wishing detractors will explain the other side of the coin.

[jbelfior]

I think TGJB would agree that the BG top within a tight space was sure to be followed by a bounce. The fact that he ran so well speaks volumes about his potential.
Work this weekend was impressive. Ignore at your own risk.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[sekrah]

Definitely one of my final candidates for \"Key Horse\".

[jbelfior]

I think you will see a change of tactics with MC being much closer than usual.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[vagrant]

No big changes required. He\'s been within 5 lengths at the 2nd call of every race this year. That\'s the Belmont sweet spot. Since \'98, only Jazil and Afleet Alex have been farther back and still won.

What Medal Count needs is to save some early ground for a change. A better draw would help. He drew the 13 in the Blue Grass and Derby.

[TMW]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think TGJB would agree that the BG top within a
> tight space was sure to be followed by a bounce.
> The fact that he ran so well speaks volumes about
> his potential.
> Work this weekend was impressive. Ignore at your
> own risk.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.


Some folks don\'t pay much attention to workouts but I place a lot of emphasis on them. Romans said MC had one of the best workouts that he has ever seen 6f in 1:10 3/5 galloping out 7f in 1:24 (according to Bloodhorse). Dynaformer/Unbridled Song = distance. Appears to be very healthy. Decent jock (Albarado). Should get a much better trip than in the KY Derby. 5 weeks rest. 20-1 odds.