Belmont Stakes Morning Line

[Silver Charm]

Anybody out there who is good it care to take a shot at laying one out here. Including Social Inclusion who no matter what you set it at will probably be longer. Cant believe anyone is coming back for more unless its those who pounded him down late in the Preakness to like 5-1.

[sekrah]

Strictly morning line, not what I think they\'ll go off at:

California Chrome 1-1
Ride On Curlin 6-1
Tonalist 8-1
Commanding Curve 8-1
Wicked Strong 10-1
Samraat 12-1
Medal Count 15-1
Social Inclusion 15-1
General A-Rod 15-1
Commissioner 20-1
Kid Cruz 30-1
Matuszak 30-1
Matterhorn 30-1

[mjellish]

Interesting...

I would think WS would be the second choice and the ML would be more like this

CC 4/5
WS 6-1
Commanding Curve 8-1
Tonalist 10-1
Ride on Curlin 12-1
Medal Count 15-1
Samraat 20-1


and then everyone else.

[Silver Charm]

Wow Jellish 4/5 on Chrome is short and maybe you are right. What if I said you could have gotten 10-1 on the last 13 who have tried to do this in the last 35 years and if this one finally rolls in your are still losing money. That\'s how hard this is for those who think if I can get 7/5 \"IM ALL IN\"......

[sekrah]

I duno.  Feels like Ride On Curlin is getting the pub among the novices as the only one who can beat Chrome.  The sportsbooks also have ROC clear 2nd choice.  I\'ve seen as low as 5-1.

[Fairmount1]

I\'ve struggled with this one and I\'ve been plugging in the changes with decisions on entries last week or so and waiting for a decision on SI.  As I previously posted, I\'m at a loss for where Chrome ends up exactly and it really affects the other odds whether he is even versus 4-5 versus 3-5.  I ultimately settled on $.70 although I think he could go as low as 1-2 ($.50).  Here is my best effort right now but I\'m really curious what phil23 thinks of the race.  

Code: [Select]


California Chrome        0.70
Wicked Strong 7.30
Tonalist 10.10
Ride on Curlin        13.20
Commanding Curve        16.20
Medal Count 18.60
Samraat        21.70
Social Inclusion                        23.30
General a Rod 29.30
Commissioner 30.20
Kid Cruz 40.60
Matuszak 49.00
Matterhorn        61.50



[johnnym]

My 2 cents no way R.O.C goes of above 7-1 may even be the 2nd choice.

[sekrah]

I\'d be willing to wager (even money prop) that ROC goes off 2nd choice.

[Fairmount1]

Belmont crowd cheering for a Triple Crown in New York and the naysayers will gravitate to a New York State of Mind.....Jerkens, Clemente.

2 for 11 record with two wins at 6 furlongs or less.  Cue richiebee.

Trainer named Gowan.  

Sprinter Mom Magical Ride.  

Lower Beyer Figure than Wicked Strong\'s 104 Wood who also beat him in the Derby and is now a \"fresh\" shooter.  WS working terrifically for a hot trainer this spring after returning to NY.  This is what DRF readers that will be at the track for the Big Event will see when they slide their money through the window in addition to the fact that Chrome just beat ROC.

Rosario rides Tonalist over Ride On Curlin.  

2nd choice seems a reach to me on Belmont Stakes Day with a Triple Crown on the line.....esp when you consider the type of crowd that will be wagering Saturday.

To be clear, this is only meant to be a reflection of his anticipated odds not how I think he will run in the race.

[jbelfior]

I agree. Most people playing this race are linear thinkers. Closed for second in last going shorter, added distance has to help. Have people at work who don\'t play at all asking me what do I think about the horse that was flying at CC in the Preakness.
IMO, if CC fails to fire, the likely winners (assuming SI goes in the 7f race) are Tonalist (don\'t care if Clement only trains goldfish besides turf horses---horse is 2nd best horse in the race) and Samraat.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[miff]

Social Inclusion in Woody Stevens.

[bellsbendboy]

If true Mike, this makes, at least in my mind, Tonalist a major threat, as the solid second choice.  While \"Chrome\" appears bullet proof pace has doomed many
in this heat.  bbb

[miff]

Owner of SI a bit of a rogue. Last comments were Woody Stevens, Wed is official day to declare.

[aceriley]

I will be buying the TG sheets this weekend for the undercard mostly but will study the Belmont numbers of course. Right now I am drooling if this is the morning line.

Emotionally I\'m rooting for Chrome because I\'m an Orange County guy and and I think the TC would do wonders for Los Alamitos which is about 5 miles from my office and not much farther from my home and they have their first ever Hollywood Park replacement thoroughbred meet on the new track coming up in a month. I can make money even if Chrome wins, if these are the odds at post time and my key horse does what I expect.

Ace