Don't discount a Secretariat like performance Saturday

[smithkent]

the Belmont distance adds so many unknowns for CC to win the TC

those same variables affect the competition too

Many things seem to indicate \"all systems go\"

The horse reportedly training well over the Belmont surface

weather looks to be good.  He has handled large crowds calmly

His jock has had the TC experience before, is getting some rides there beforehand

While he may not get the distance, there is also the chance he obliterates this field by many horse lengths.  His tactical speed is clearly an advantage

Yes, I\'m going to have some backups to CC, but be prepared for an historic win by him too...

[TGJB]

Define \"many horse lengths\".

[smithkent]

\"Tremendous machine\" lengths

Yeah, Secretariat was the greatest, but he only had 3 other tired horses in that field...

[TGJB]

That\'s not an answer, unless you\'re saying 31. Against the whole field.

How about I just pick one, and you give me, oh, 8?

[Michael D.]

smithkent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes, I\'m going to have some backups to CC, but be
> prepared for an historic win by him too...


hi smith.

what does \"have some backups\" mean?

[sekrah]

Significantly more likely CC misses the board than wins by 8 lengths.

[smithkent]

Interesting bet, like a point spread

There would have to be serious $$ to cash for a bet to equal Belmont 1973

No, I\'m saying that unexpected greatness is possible, just like the possibility of abject failure. We all have become used to the bad outcomes for so long that it\'s hard to think it could be otherwise

[miff]

Smarty Jones and Big Brown ran against much weaker fields than CC will face, comparatively speaking.

No locks at 12f,unknown territory regardless of breeding, accomplishments or figs.

[smithkent]

For me, backups with multiple other horses in pick 3 and pick 4
Exactas with multiple horses without CC
wide superfecta wheel/box with no CC

With all backups, include the absolute longest shots, even if you think absolutely no way by standard deterministic methods.   If they have 4 legs they can win.

Weird things happen, though I hope not this Saturday.  

I took my elderly father to the Santa Anita Derby this year, and want him to see a Triple Crown winner.

[TGJB]

There\'s another unknown this time, involving a nasal strip.

If you take out the pre-strip figures it\'s a different sheet.

I think I heard MLB is going to start letting guys use aluminum bats.

[Michael D.]

smithkent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For me, backups with multiple other horses in pick
> 3 and pick 4
> Exactas with multiple horses without CC
> wide superfecta wheel/box with no CC
>
> With all backups, include the absolute longest
> shots, even if you think absolutely no way by
> standard deterministic methods.   If they have 4
> legs they can win.
>
> Weird things happen, though I hope not this
> Saturday.  
>
> I took my elderly father to the Santa Anita Derby
> this year, and want him to see a Triple Crown
> winner.


ok, thanks.

you don\'t like the 4-5 shot enough to single him. you think some bets against the horse are smart. fair enough.

I wish you and your father a great day. it should be a lot of fun.

[Edgorman]

Only if they were registered Bar Mitzvah gifts and used through High School and College.

[smithkent]

Actually, it\'s a known unknown

CC gets to use it, another factor in his favor I suppose

I followed the wailing and gnashing of teeth here about that, but don\'t think it is what made him so good. You have to allow for the possibility that his numbers got better for reasons of  training and maturation.  You will need a controlled experiment to prove a horse can improve by leaps and bounds by simply placing a nasal strip on.

He is a freak, not a fraud.

Will all the other Belmont contenders be \"stripping up\"? At least it will be visible, not like drugs.

 Let\'s see Saturday...

[TGJB]

They can show the world how little it means by not using it.

Equibase says tracks don\'t report it so they don\'t. Tracks say people can\'t always see whether a horse has one, so reporting would be hit or miss. If you get really really close to the paddock, maybe you\'ll know about the rest of the field Saturday.

I hear one guy\'s got a light weight oxygen tank. Legal, no problem.

Yeah, it was probably \"maturation\". Very sudden maturation. Followed by no bounces. Cause that happens all the time.

[Box]

was staying out of this discussion but think your emotions are letting you  lowering yourself to the level of this discussion. Yes the horse jumped with the equipment change, but to overly simplify it to this level is amusing. Think its time I started buying and claiming horses again; just going to start using strips... common