When to toss?

[billk5300s]

Now that the dust is settling from the Belmont I\'d like to ask a question regarding when to toss a horse based on TG numbers.  Normally I line up the contenders and evaluate the likely winner based on trip and or track bias.  I realize that this is not an exact science, if it were we wouldn\'t have day jobs.  I\'ve been tossing horses that are greater than 3 points slower.  The rare exception would be lone speed on a speed biased oval.  I\'ve been bitten a lot by horses that get heavy play even though they may be 5 points slower at their best. What would be a good rule of thumb numbers wise to eliminate contenders?

[jerry]

The Belmont is a peculiar case with its own set of rules partly due to the distance and partly due to the spacing of the races leading up to it.

Rule of Thumb 1. The Belmont is generally not kind to horses coming out of the Preakness and is especially unkind to horses who run tops in the Preakness.

Rule of Thumb 2. Slower horses are not necessarily automatic tosses. Horses jump up in this race and usually at big prices. I like to find a horse who has a flat line and shows some improvement in his last race even if that race is 5 points slower than the others. Commissioner did it this weekend. There are plenty of others. Check out the archives.

Rule of Thumb 3. Expect the unexpected in this race and structure your bets accordingly. Birdshot works better than single shot.

Rule of Thumb 4. Bet against any triple crown candidate. The overlays are fantastic.

[joemama]

Overlay in exacta was non existent.  That one got hammered at the windows. Rule of Thumb #5.  Never bet deep closers.

[johnnym]

Afleet Alex

[sekrah]

I\'ll take the risk at missing 1 deep closing favorite every 15 years.

[jerry]

There really aren\'t any deep closers in the Belmont anymore. The pace is so slow they\'re all bunched up.

[joemama]

Well going into the race surely Commanding curve was considered to be a deep closer. Off the Kentucky Derby.

[smalltimer]

he finished where in the Belmont?

[jp702006]

Rule of thumb #6: Always use a Pletcher horse:)

[jerry]

I know. But the early fractions are so slow in the Belmont, unlike some Derbies and most Preaknesses, that the deep closers are right up on the pace. If they\'re not, it\'s probably just not their day.

[jerry]

Wish I\'d had the brains to bet it. I keyed the 1, 4, 8 & 11 in triples. Didn\'t touch the exacta. Duh.

[Box]

You could put 10 TG sheet guys in a room and get 10 different opinions at any given time. Stick to whats been good for you, sounds like you have a system. Regarding slower horses taking money....barring equipment/trainer/surface changes or young horses making second/third starts { can get big improvements those situations }; that\'s why we buy the numbers, let them beat you.

[joemama]

I\'m just saying that those types of closers coming out of the KY derby generally speaking don\'t fair well on Belmont Stakes Day. E.G. golden soul

[joemama]

Yes and maybe rule 6a should be if Pletcher has 2 horses in bet them both.

[joemama]

Stuff like that eats me up.  I won\'t even mention what I\'d have liked to do that would have cost me 54 bucks to get back over 3k.