When to toss?

[TGJB]

Don\'t remember whether Colonial Affair came out of the Derby, but Victory Gallop definitely did.

The other thing is that when a horse is running his eyeballs out/so much better than his competition, they show more speed than usual, because they have a ton of energy. Don\'t remember their usual running styles but Point Given and Risen Star might fall into that category. It\'s hard to win by 15 if you\'re 10 back with a quarter to run.

[joemama]

Commissioner had 5 in slop last out.  I figure he\'s got to get to a 2 or so to be in the picture.  He looked to be on the improve to me.  Factor in connections, Pletcher, Winstar and the horses breeding the horse starts to look bettable. Oh yeah Castellano on board also. Fast track also. Add it all up it makes sense.  Tough thing is wiring the field in the Belmont Stakes. That rarely happens.

[joemama]

I\'m not going to say that a deep closer will not ever win but it is rare for the Belmont Stakes.  I just can\'t remember in past runnings many horses winning from far back.  Seems like it\'s doesn\'t happen often enough to bet on it.  Better to go with what historically works in the race and if you get beat by something that rarely happens then so be it.  In the long run you will be ahead.

[johnnym]

Peltcher did say back in Jan that Commisioner was his Belmont horse.
That I think was the real reason Danza was a no show.

[billk5300s]

Thanks and I agree about letting slower highly bet horses beat me.  It had been happening more than normal so I was hoping for opinions such as you provided.  I thought that maybe my 5 point rule of thumb may have been too unforgiving.