Question for the board

[covelj70]

There were a bunch of factors that contributed to Cali Chrome\'s loss on Saturday but one factor was that he was forced down inside early in the race

I\'m not making any assertions as to how much of a factor that was but it clearly didn\'t help matters for him

A bunch of folks on the board (myself included) and in other places had suggested all Triple Crown that this horse would be vulnerable if he was forced down on the inside as his previous weak races came when he was down there and Victor has been very clear about his intent to keep him in the clear throughout his campaign

I thought, erroneously, that he would be pinned down inside in the Derby/Preakness and or forced very wide in those races but Victor and the horse did a terrific job of making good trips for themselves and the horse ran big both times

Saturday was a different story and here\'s my question:

Did the other riders intentionally pin him down there or was it just the break and luck that caused him to be down there?

Reminded me of the Big Brown Belmont when he broke akwardly and was pinned down in there and clearly resented it.  He was another one that up until the Belmont had been in the clear in his prior races and didn\'t run his race when pinned down inside (there were obviously other factors at work there as well).

I watched the replay a bunch of times and I can\'t decide for myself if Rosie and Javier had him boxed in on purpose or if it was just luck that he got pinned down there

I\'m trying to decide how much credit to give the other jocks when they get in similar situations going forward so any thoughts would be appreciated.

thanks all

[Box]

I am not saying he would have won; but if you are on \"the best horse\" you have an inside draw and speed in a race with out much pace, you go to the lead.. he could have easily went but looked like he was trying to set up the same trip he had in Preakness and then got stuck inside. For what its worth CC did not look like a happy camper when forced into that position.. just my opinion

[smalltimer]

Jim,
Jimbo66, mjellish, myself and others felt Chrome emptied out pretty hard in the Preakness.  I knew that Chrome had needed 3 more strides to finish the the final 1/8th in the Preakness vs. the Derby, so that\'s always guaranteed to show the horse has been hard used, especially in the short spacing races.
Chrome was positioned fine early but definitely was stuck in a pocket with no place to go until almost the mile marker.  When he shifted out just before the 1/2 mile pole Chrome had no excuse to not win the race, if he would have been good enough.  He got out finished by several horses.
Victor said Chrome had very little left at the 5/16 pole, and it became apparent that Chrome lacked that burst that he\'d shown for the last 6-7 races.
He ran bravely down the lane, and showed his grit, but the tank was nearing empty.
Have a good one

[richiebee]

Covel:

A minute or two after CalChrome arrived in the paddock, NBC commentators
showed a very calm CC and made the usual \"Nothing bothers him. Docile like a
stable pony. Unflappable.\" comments.

With about 15 minutes to post time, the same calm CC, the same comments.

Finally, about a minute before they were to leave the paddock, Bailey
commented that CC\'s \"calmness\" might be a cause for concern.

After the race, Bailey commented that he thought that Espinoza did a good job
of working CC to the outside in the late stages in the race. Randy Moss
disagreed vehemently, saying that Espinoza should have used CC\'s speed to
establish position early.

CC\'s \"backyard bred\" pedigree made for a good story but was exposed in the
Belmont.

[jerry]

Yes. They race rode him into a position where he was clearly not comfortable. They did the same thing to Big Brown. Victor should have used him enough early to secure clear sailing although they probably would have then just strung him out to the outside rail.

[jerry]

Agree with Moss. Also, with wins in the derby and the Preakness, CC had more than outrun his backyard pedigree. To boot, his Belmont was a very good performance considering his troubled position early, his wide trip late and third effort in 5 weeks. Hats off to him. He\'s dead game. Expect to hear more from him down the road. Hopefully nothing more from the owner.

[TGJB]

Jim-- first of all, you meant to say a bunch of possible factors.

I thought it was clear before they got to the first turn that CC didn\'t have the energy he had in previous races. Horses that didn\'t figure to run away from him early did, and that was clearly not what Espinoza wanted-- it was the horse.

Richie-- same with the pedigree angle. You\'re going to have a hard time convincing me that he had enough pedigree to win the Derby but not the Belmont.

I\'ll see what the day looks like when I get it, but the single biggest noteworthy thing about the 2014 Belmont is how slow it went vs. the Brooklyn (and thank God they ran another 1 1/2 race). Yeah, they carried a lot more weight. But Norembega isn\'t a world beater, and there were three together at the wire.

[metroj]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I watched the replay a bunch of times and I can\'t
> decide for myself if Rosie and Javier had him
> boxed in on purpose or if it was just luck that he
> got pinned down there

I only watched the replay a couple of times so I could certainly be wrong but it didn\'t appear that Victor was trying to get Chrome outside at any point prior to the move outside he eventually made, can\'t recall him ever looking over his shoulder to see if an opening was available.  While it didn\'t look like Chrome was fighting the jockey, being pinned in the first 7 furlongs or so couldn\'t have been the trip they were looking for.

Monday morning handicapping... but imo Victor should have sent just enough to get Chrome and Commissioner relatively clear of the other pace types.   Once clear he could cede the lead and more easily position Chrome outside into the stalking trip that worked so well for him in the Derby and Preakness.  Then again unless Victor perused this board, and read your thoughtful foresight, he probably didn\'t see Commissioner going to the lead either and really didn\'t know what to make of the pace in the race.

[jerry]

\"You\'re going to have a hard time convincing me that he had enough pedigree to win the Derby but not the Belmont.\"

Damn my eyes but isn\'t that what just happened? And by your figures he ran a 0 in the Derby which stacks up favorably to any \"better bred\" Derby winner in the post steroid era. To boot, his nicking pattern is A++.

[TGJB]

Your point?

[jerry]

I\'m afraid Victor had one thought in his mind and that was don\'t move too early. That box was death.

[jerry]

He did have enough pedigree to win the Derby but not the Belmont.

[Silver Charm]

I have heard countless times on here that Trainers sometimes are not the best source to guesstimate a \"bounce is coming\" than really about anyone else.

How many times did we hear from press and TV reports that the \"horse seemed to be thriving on the work\".....and then when Victor said he had nothing at the half pole, well now you know!!

I do believe they tried to box him in a tad and Javier even left a small rail hole if he was gonna take the bait and get up in there. Victor didn\'t and I don\'t know that it mattered. The horse didn\'t have the energy required to punch. But to his credit gave it all he had. The other 2 Triple Crown participants hardly finished and dont think other Trainers will not notice.....

[jerry]

Thanks for giving this horse his due. Sorry to hear we won\'t be seeing him again until the fall. Seems like a rather long freshening.

[covelj70]

JB,

I get it that you think it was the bounce and not the trip or the pedigree that got to him

that aside, I am still wondering if you have an opinion as to whether Javier and Rosie had the guts to race ride in this setting?

I will leave the debates about why he ran how he ran to other folks, I am just trying to make the data base more robust for next time

thoughts on if they race rode?