Question for the board

[meatloaf]

When I saw CC\'s workout before the Belmont, I thought then that I was seeing a drained horse, because his poverty crease was so pronounced.  Then everyone started raving about the work, and about his condition and weight gain, and I thought \"What do I know?\"  Still, I almost had the trifecta:  I picked Tonalist, Medal Count, and Wicked Strong (my order).

[TGJB]

Yeah, that\'s obviously exactly what happened, cause and effect, because there were no other variables.

[TGJB]

I thought the guys on the outside did what they figured to do-- I think I said something after the draw about the outside horses having riders and trainers that were ground conscious (one of which was Clement, and Tonalist was wide anyway). I think the top and third start in 5 weeks probably got to CC, but as I said in ROTW I have no good read on this horse.

Meanwhile, didn\'t you and I have a conversation where you told me distance pedigree was more important in the Derby than Belmont?

[P-Dub]

He got stepped on right out of the gate.

Is it possible that had something to do with his inability to get to the front and establish position??  Thought I read somewhere that Victor wanted to go on but CC didn\'t have the acceleration to do so.

[TGJB]

Yet another variable. It\'s tough to do cause and effect relationships with a sample size of one.

That\'s one of the good things about what we do for the Derby seminar-- by now we have a lot of data, and breaking it down into groups (new tops etc.) smoothes out the other variables.

[covelj70]

I most definitely never said pedigree was more important in Derby than Belmont

I even put up a post about the Brooklyn/Belmont double last week where I said why I wasn\'t posting alot ahead of the race (because this race is about who can get distance and not the figures). I obviously use the figures for the Derby (and most other races) and since I don\'t for the Belmont, I would say it\'s pretty clear I think pedigree more important for Belmont than Derby

As I mentioned, I don\'t want to get into why he didn\'t run well, that\'s for others to decide/debate, I\'m just trying to get a fix on which jockeys are willing to do whatever it takes to win for future reference

[Boscar Obarra]

I guess the diff between vermin and champion is about two lengths at a mile and a half then?

 jeez.

[Boscar Obarra]

Energy level pre race was below par. Ride was not inspired.  Foot injured.  4 path at the 5/16 that day no bargain. 2-3 lane was juiced.

 Beaten 2L for the whole enchalada.

 You figure it out.

[smalltimer]

Mr. C.,
Take a few minutes and go to the Belmont Archives and see if any horse that has not run at least a TG \"4\" in their 3 year old season has won the Belmont. One of the rules I have on the Belmont is not to play any non TG \"4\" horse to WIN the Belmont, but if they have a slight forward moving pattern to a recent TG \"5\" and especially if they got that # on an off-track, I do give them a shot to hit the board in the Belmont.  Especially if that trainer is TAP.
Have a good one.

[jerry]

JB, get used to nasal strips. They\'re legal, they\'re here to stay and they\'re no big deal. Get over it.

[P-Dub]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Energy level pre race was below par. Ride was not
> inspired.  Foot injured.  4 path at the 5/16 that
> day no bargain. 2-3 lane was juiced.
>
>  Beaten 2L for the whole enchalada.
>
>  You figure it out.


Yeah Boscar, I get all that.

I watched the race, saw everything you just mentioned.

It was a specific question regarding his inability to get to the lead, due to being stepped on.

[ajkreider]

A lot more weight indeed.  9 pounds in a mile handicap race would have many trainers scratching the favorite.  Here they carried it another 1/2 mile.  With that and going out quicker, it\'s no wonder they limped home in comparison.

[TGJB]

You\'re right, exactly what I meant. The only possible variables were his pedigree, or the nasal strips he had in the Belmont AND his previous races.

[plasticman]

This is a great question that Jim asks, and my gut feeling would be to say no, that jocks aren\'t thinking about putting other horses in jackpot situations, they\'re just worried about their own mount and giving that mount the best possible trip they can.

This is what you see in the stretch a lot of times, with someone slipping up the rail, this shows me that jocks arent worried about other horses, they\'re just trying to make their mount go as fast as possible to the wire.

[Boscar Obarra]

wasn\'t referring directly to your post.

 I haven\'t been able to see a head on of the start , for some reason the NYRA replays omit them for SAT.

 I would imagine that if he was stepped on out of the gate, the initial pain of that might have been a significant factor.

 still looks like a very tenuous ride, plus the gang up did him in. Could be even if he had the lead at the 1/4 as was obviously expected, he\'d have folded. No way to know.