ROTW -- Singletary

[SoCalMan2]

Nice looking ROTW....I believe the favorite will not hit the super.....the ROTW pick looks strong....i also like the outside horse notwithstanding impost and post....3yo returning to 2yo top and third time out looks explosive to me at a price....the top pick and this one plus the favorite out could be nice ingredients.

[SoCalMan2]

Outside horse has already won a one mile stakes on this course and ran second in a grade 2 turf mile....horse is 9-1.......ROTW pick looks strong and great value at 5-1 as I type.....looking for 2-1 fav to run out.

[SoCalMan2]

Man....could not have been more wrong......the favorite had one hell of an explosive turn of foot...he must have jumped way forward in that one.....ugh.

[Rick B.]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> the favorite had one hell of an explosive turn of
> foot...

The favorite won the ROTW again?

I need to reexamine this TG concept that we
should bet against a legit favorite simply
because he is overbet. Ain\'t working.

[johnnym]

That has always been a personal thought of mine as well.
If a horse is favorite and deserves to be it than it is what it is.
I have hit many a Tri\'s playing the fav for first..
Met Mile this year is a prime example $500 tri.

[P-Dub]

Depends on what you call a legit favorite. This favorite had a right to be favored, but on numbers he didn\'t tower over the field.

Of the 3 horses mentioned as useable, 2 were underlays.  The one that was a price ran 2nd at 13-1. He was also the only one of those 3 that had run a good number at the distance/surface. The other 2 had run competitively down the hill, but not around 2 turns.

I don\'t think you should bet against a favorite just because, nor am I a big fan of hammering low priced horses that look like standouts. It takes a very sharp handicapper to be able to do that consistently.

I\'ve seen other ROTW where you might say why play against the favorite. In this race I see no problem taking a shot with a 13-1 shot that was very competitive on the surface and distance.

[Rick B.]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In this race I see no problem taking a shot
> with a 13-1 shot that was very competitive
> on the surface and distance.

I hear you, but the favorite was acceptable enough
to at least recommend using him to save.

Instead of thanking ROTW for a nice $60+ ex, we
are debating whether the analyst hates money even
more than he stubbornly hates the favorite every
week. Makes no sense to me.

[P-Dub]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > In this race I see no problem taking a shot
> > with a 13-1 shot that was very competitive
> > on the surface and distance.
>
> I hear you, but the favorite was acceptable
> enough
> to at least recommend using him to save.
>
> Instead of thanking ROTW for a nice $60+ ex, we
> are debating whether the analyst hates money even
> more than he stubbornly hates the favorite every
> week. Makes no sense to me.

Agree Rick. Playing him over the price horse, considering his numbers, would have been acceptable.

This wasn\'t a favorite to toss completely, but one where you could take a shot against in the win pool.

[drbillym]

Hey Rick, after 6 years, it is time to change your banner on the home page.  How about, \"It\'s simple,really.  Buy thoro-graph, bet the favorite the analyst is trying to beat, make money!\"

[Rick B.]

drbillym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey Rick, after 6 years, it is time to change your
> banner on the home page.  How about, \"It\'s
> simple,really.  Buy thoro-graph, bet the favorite
> the analyst is trying to beat, make money!\"

Or:

\"Actually BUY Thoro-Graph products, and stop yipping
about the free stuff\".

[drbillym]

Hi rick!  Will you be making it to Saratoga this year?  I\'ll buy you a beer this time!

[jp702006]

Nah, I think it\'s safe to say he hates nasal strips more than anything:)

[Bet Twice]

The fav was no faster than many and slower than some - no reason not to try to beat him IMO.  Not saying he was a toss but also not deserving of the odds he went off at.  Obviously didn\'t work out in this case but I wouldn\'t say this was a race where they were trying to beat a legitimate favorite.

[miff]

Home Run Kitten was fastest on Beyers,not TG, hence the public favorite.The perceived edge here was the favorite was really no faster and was going to be short priced, a bet against.


FWIW the conversion from Beyer to TG had the favorite the fastest with TG 6, 6, 6.5, a case where TG and Beyer did not agree.

Home Run Kitten received a 92 Beyer on Sat,with ground and weight, ran a fig equal to a TG 5...see what JB has it.