the one thing i use when there are a lot of lightly raced or unraced 2YO are the TG figs for age, surface and distance. add the 3, very few will be below 40. todays last at KNLD is a perfect example. after the SCR, there are exactly 3 horses with good figs, and less than a 20 fig for firsters.
not very scientific, and the public usually has the 3 favs, but its worth a look.