6th:
Looks like plenty of speed lined up, and breaking from the rail Taris has the big number last race. Stonetastic ran a similar number 3 races ago, and hasn\'t come close to it in 2 subsequent races. She also has more races under her belt than Taris, who is relatively lightly raced. . Assuming Taris does the same thing, backing up to around a 3, which of the others can run that figure?
Thank You Marylou is a closer, has run a 0, and ran a respectable 3rd (TG 3) in the BC . She has a bit more rest coming into this one than her previous 2, and if she can work out a trip is playable at anything close to her 6/1 ML as long as the track isn\'t playing towards speed. More Complexity has a nice forging pattern but seems just a bit slow. Sam\'s Sister ran a good one over the track 2 back in her only dirt race (TG 3 1/2). Were the 3 other mediocre efforts due to the surface?
I\'ll toss JoJo, 4/1 ML with speed in a race filled with it, even though her last is very good and has a nice pattern. Reluctantly.
Playing 1,3,9. I hate leaving in Taris, but between the 2 big number fillies, like her better, and hate getting beat by the fastest horse. If I whiff here, will play the late Pick 3, as I think races 7,9 have a great chance at a price.
Race 7:
Red Outlaw is my top pick, a nice forging pattern with more than enough number power. Anything remotely close to the 6/1 ML makes him a solid key. Alert Bay just popped a 3 after a series of 6s. Trainer is very good with the surface switch and is a must use at 6/1 ML. Tonito M got down to a TG 2.5 2 back, last race regressed 2 pts to the same number 3 back. Running back to his best, albeit on a different surface, makes him another that is a must use at 10/1 ML. Heart To Heart has run a series of 4s, and as the favorite would love to toss as he can certainly be beat. Solid series of races. Long On Value is our BC weekend hero, and can\'t be tossed, and I agree with Frank regarding Talco. A little slow but a nice pattern that with a forward move can be right there.
Playing: 2,4,6,10,12. Tossing HTH, and hoping to get a price here.
Race 8:
I\'m trying to find a reason to play anything other than Shared Belief. I love beating the favorite as much as the next guy. But I\'m having a hard time talking myself into any other horse here. Chitu is the only other horse I can see winning, so he\'s on the ticket.
Playing: 2,8. If SB gets a clean trip, I don\'t see him losing unless Chitu gets loose.
Race 9:
Indian Princess has a nice last dirt number, trained by a guy that is very good turf/dirt. Also using Elle Sueno: couple nice sprints with decent enough figs, ready for 2 turns. Foolish Ways: solid connections had her ambitiously placed in last, and she was off a bit slow in her first race stateside. Obviously a softer spot here and I think she runs a very solid race today. Scattagirl - nice last race routing after a debut sprint. Speed and fade last time gives her a license to hold on much longer this time, with a very solid turf rider in the irons (Kent D).
Playing: 5,7,9,10
50c P4: 1,3,9/2,4,6,10,12/2,8/5,7,9,10 = $60
