Covello/ Far From Over

[BH]

Best of luck, Jim.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90396/far-from-over-interest-sold-wood-next

[ajkreider]

Some people take Derby futures a bit more seriously than others.

[covelj70]

lol

Thanks guys.

I\'m very excited.

I think he\'s the one this year and so I put my money where my mouth is.

Very few of these are bred to get the 1 1/4 and he is and that plus the brillance he showed in the withers has me really excited about this horse.

Thanks again

[TGJB]

Out of curiosity-- of the recent Derby winners, which ones would you say have \"1 1/4 pedigrees\"? I went back as far as Smarty, to me it looks like about half of them.

I won\'t invoke the \"C\" word from last year, this is a better horse. But he\'s also running against much better horses.

[covelj70]

I would say since 2005 (so just picking the last 10 years), you have had 3 winners (including Big Brown) where the pedigree wasn\'t obvious for the distance but the pedigrees were rock solid for the other 7.  So 70% of the time in the last 10 years, pedigree has mattered.

Orb
Animal Kingdom
Super Saver
Mine that Bird
Street Sense
Barbaro
Giacomo

They were all locks to get the distance.  

In the case of Mine that Bird and Giacomo, their ability to get the distance was the only thing they had going for them going into the race.

Pedigree isn\'t the only thing that matters but it\'s important

[TGJB]

Don\'t agree about Giacamo (Great Above? Ta Wee? Tyrant?), and if you go back one more year you get Smarty, who I would put in the no camp (Smile mare). If so you get to 6/5, which is what I had.

[covelj70]

Giamcomo was by Holy Bull out of a Stop the Music mare so he had two 1 1/4 quarter horses in his immediate pedigree, doesn\'t get any more clear than that.

it\'s 7/10.

I can go back and look at the previous 10 when I get a chance but it\'s very clearly 7 out of the last 10.  

obviously there have been a ton of horses that have had the pedigree to get the distance that haven\'t won as well so we need more than the pedigree but at least it\'s a start!

[TGJB]

Holy Bull gets to be a 1 1/4 horse because he himself did it, despite having a sprint pedigree? Then by definition every Derby winner is one.

[covelj70]

The bottom side of Holy Bull\'s pedigree was loaded with stamina influences (Al Hattab, Grey Dawn, I Will) and the bottom side of Giacomo\'s pedigree had plenty of stamina, especially up close as I mentioned before.

we can agree to disagree, it\'s all good

[johnnym]

As a rule of thumb I never bet a Pletcher horse to win the Derby..
With that being said,I wish you the best of luck.

[Wrongly]

Jim

Skipping Gotham and going straight to the Wood.  Positive or negative in your opinion?

[covelj70]

Skipping the Gotham was really the original plan. Horse breezed so well first back after the race that it became a consideration but going right to the Wood was the plan all along.

Horse responded great to the 7 weeks between first and second starts and feeling is the same will do him well between Withers and the Wood and that would leave him very fresh for the big race if things go well.

He got a lot of racing education in his first two starts between the dog fight in the first race and the obvious education in the second race.

It\'s always a judgement call and can be argued both ways but I believe this is definitely the right move.

[covelj70]

I appreciate that

As we discuss on this board every year, Todd\'s horses run the same percentages of TG tops and pairs as everyone else for the Derby. He just has rarely had the best horse heading into the race and the one time be did, he won the race.

[jbelfior]

Solid turf pedigree on the dam side will often overcome any distance limitations that may have existed on the sire side.
I agree that Smarty Jones was a head scratcher.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Bet Twice]

Best of luck Jim.  This horse is certainly a contender, there are a couple of others in his league but not sure I would want to trade places with anyone. Should be an exciting couple of months.