It's Not All About The Horse

[TGJB]

Elliot (Carpe Diem) is way outmanaging Baffert and Violette.

[BitPlayer]

I take it that you like the idea of skipping the 10-point races, starting with the 50-pointers, and going into the Derby off two 3yo races?

[TGJB]

As we show in the seminar every year, two has been better, independent of spacing. But also, having them run big right off the break gives them nowhere to go, especially with two more pre-Derby starts.

Both Upstart and Dortmund looked to be lugging out pretty good...

The fact that AP gets a late start and may not be that tight could work out well for BB.

[Tavasco]

Could be D. Wayne just trying to grab headlines, promote race? His filly didn\'t seem to want any more distance in her last? Going in the Rebel looks to alienate many, (suppose that is irrelevant to him) especially if she fares poorly which seems likely to me.

Even with the - I pulled into Nazareth, I was feelin\' about half past dead

[ajkreider]

Upstart is already back on the worktab and being pointed now to the Florida Derby.  I\'m surprised by both of those decisions.

[BitPlayer]

I was a little surprised the stewards didn\'t look at that.  I rely on Cal Racing for my replays, and they don\'t have the head-on.  From the pan view, it looks like he came out and took Bolo\'s path, arguably costing Bolo second money.  I lost money on the race either way.

[TGJB]

He also bore out going into the first turn and coming out of the second.

[miff]

Not sure about Dortmund lugging out but he certainly does not run the turns too well. Big oaf got outquicked off the turn in his prior start and then got lucky when a weak riding Gary Stevens got outmuscled by Garcia late.

Think Dortmund was kept wide off the fence on Sat by design to better negotiate the turns.In a crowded 20 horse field, he\'ll need a very clean trip to win, since he\'s no faster than several others.

[mjellish]

I agree Miff.  Dortmund runs similar to Will Take Charge.  Very Big Colt as well.  Remember how Drosselmeyer couldn\'t handle the turns well either, till he got on the Belmont Oval.

[miff]

MJ,

Reportedly very big, as in 17 hands and 1250+ lbs.Was going to actually mention Will Take Charge in my post,Dortmund more tactical though.Interesting thing about Dortmund is that Baffert, while not publicly stating it, mentioned to a clocker friend out there that American Pharaoh was far more talented than Dortmund early on, then AP got hurt.You just never know when they are coming off an injury.JB\'s point re AP maybe being better off coming in late is with merit for this horse, imo, as several recent derby winners started their 3 yr old campaign in March.

Re American Pharaoh, worked like the second coming on Friday.A clocker who observed  the work termed it freaky.


Good luck
Mike

[joemama]

For the sake of argument Drosslemeyer did win at Churchill.

[TGJB]

Pretty sure the last 1/8th of the San Felipe was on a straightaway.

[miff]

JB,

Saw that and agree except Garcia went left-handed a few times in the stretch which may have contributed. More telling to me was how Garcia never tried to drop over to the fence when clear early on and stayed 2-3 path all the way around.


Mike

[miff]

Brass at TVG have apparently parted ways with Jeff Siegel which makes no sense, except in the racing industry.

Jeff:

\"Dortmund undefeated in 5 starts with rising figs.Scary to think that some close to the barn insist American Pharoah is pounds better\"

[TGJB]

Some track exec with a brain (oxymoron?) should hire Jeff to do what Andy does at NYRA, preferably with his buddy, they work well together.