War Emblem

[Tavasco]

War Emblem is the only horse to win the Kentucky Derby this century from the front end. California Chrome ran right on the pace last year and won. But that is not the running style most likely to win.

Apparently Bob Baffert trains his horse by chasing them with packs of wolves or weighted down lions. Thereby instilling the fear of the quarry into them and very few consequently can win by passing horses.

So, when and if Dortmund meets American Pharaoh in the Kentucky Derby @ short odds it seems to me they will beat each other. Further they are not the only expected Derby contenders whose success is based on winning from the front.

Sorry to lose Texas Red but this years Derby is looming (to me) as one in which much of the favoritism will be misplaced. In this next round of preps I will be looking for the strong closers even those which might run 2nd or third as my derby win choices.

Am I selling Baffert\'s training short? He hasn\'t won the Roses in 13 years. I watch a fair amount of Hong Kong and Japanese racing and I see in those large fields winning from the front is much more difficult than in the U.S. with 6-8 competitors. At any distance!

I must labor to remember The Spiral did produce Animal Kingdom and the Sunland Derby Mine That Bird. Yet those races are this weeks Derby Prep focus and maybe the Bourbonette Oaks has opportunities?

Just such a quiet week and so difficult to contain my fanaticism. Thank goodness for hoops!

[joemama]

Other front runners (not this century) to win in wire to wire fashion that come to mind are Go for Gin (slop) and Spend a Buck.

[Tavasco]

And even the filly Winning Colors. However, as we know, sole pace makers are different than a protracted pace duel and that difference seems to make the difference.

[Rich Curtis]

\"very few [Baffert horses] consequently can win by passing horses.\"

I am curious as to whether anybody actually believes this. If you do, Tavasco, do five minutes of research and you won\'t anymore.

[TGJB]

Bold Forbes.

[joemama]

New Years Day in the Breeder Cup Juvi comes to mind.

[Rich Curtis]

The list is endless and of course it includes Dortmund.

If you want to see a short list of a different sort, make a list of current trainers who have won more Derbies from off the pace than Baffert has.

Not that it has to matter. The Derby stats from this century support playing the frontrunner in the Derby.

[Rich Curtis]

By the way, Joemama, PDub had two errors in his \"correction\" post that were worse than your error.

[P-Dub]

I figured if anyone could spot them, it would be you Rich.

Enlighten me genius.

[P-Dub]

I figured if anyone could spot them, it would be you Rich.

[SoCalMan2]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I figured if anyone could spot them, it would be
> you Rich.
>
> Enlighten me genius.


if you mean \"it is\" when you write \"its,\" it needs to be \"it\'s\"

That is my guess as to what he is referring to.

[SoCalMan2]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I figured if anyone could spot them, it would
> be
> > you Rich.
> >
> > Enlighten me genius.
>
>
> if you mean \"it is\" when you write \"its,\" it needs
> to be \"it\'s\"
>
> That is my guess as to what he is referring to.

Just realized I may have been cryptic.  Referring to the other thread.  It\'s is a contraction of it and is.  It\'s means it is.  Its is the possessive of it.  Meaning if something belongs to it, that thing is its.  I know it sounds crazy, but at least that is how I learned it in grammar school. But maybe Palisades Elementary School taught me wrong.

[P-Dub]

Thanks So Cal, and I know the difference.

I was just having a little fun, but Rich wanted to play big brother. I\'m sure it made his day.

[Topcat]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Bold Forbes.


Yep . . . but, man, that field was short (minimizing accumulated pace pressures), and Honest Pleasure was operating under a (likely-overweight) Baeza.

[miff]

Huh? Baeza weighed more than 126?