By the way...

[Dick Powell]

Not sure why you think Rick would want him to get back to his top last Saturday? Not saying I like him either but Rick wants him to get back to the top on the first Saturday in May - not the last Saturday of March - and is smart enough to train him that way.

[miff]

Not buying Upstart wasn\'t fully cranked on Sat. His gallops and breezes leading up to the race were more aggressive than for his prior race.

Race was fast,hard fought and they ran away from the field, he ran big.That was the best Upstart can run now imo, doubt his sitting on a top in 5 weeks.

[Silver Charm]

Considering a couple of #\'s he has already run this year he doesn\'t need one....meaning a New Top on Derby Day.

Plenty of fast ones that like to run in that 1st or 2nd wave. Something gonna have to give....

[miff]

18-1 on Upstart in futures pool after Sat, players bailed. Think he\'ll be more than that Derby day if top contenders win final preps this Sat.

[boston]

Upstart 14 to 1 offshore
Mubtaahij 12 to 1 as the 5th choice

[boston]

by the way Mubtaahij closed at 8-1 in the final KD future pool

[miff]

That\'s funny. Mubtaahij best fig looks in the TG 2.5 range while Upstart,at 18-1,runs neg TG figs

[TGJB]

He\'ll be much lower in the straight pool than the exotics at CD, Euro bookies lay off.

[miff]

Tough read on Upstart. Where does battle toughened end and over the top begin?

Think if American Pharaoh, Dortmund,Carpe Diem and Far From Over/Daredevil win their final preps, Upstart could be 12-15/1 Derby day.Think the futures pool odds of 18-1 on him is predictive of many jumping off.

[Boscar Obarra]

speaking of that, surprised there wasn\'t more international arb with Main Sequence  6/5 here and 4-1 at all the books?

The winner was sharply lower in the exacta pool than the 15-1 win odds.

[Tavasco]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tough read on Upstart. Where does battle toughened
> end and over the top begin?

I share your concerns and in an attempt to find the most probable viewpoint I am resigned to keep it simple.

If I look solely at the sheet of Upstart and the expected 12/1 Kentucky price how can I not use him? Certainly in the horizontal exotics. Maybe not to win will both feet but something.

Visually his last two create doubts. Likely due to the tiring track conditions in those I will not rush to judgement and give him instead the benefit of the doubt.

After the race Sat I thought he was a toss. Now I believe he will be (works & and training reports considered) a must use. His versatility will be a plus @ CD.

I am surprised to admit my about face yet appreciate your bulldog interest in him as an assist.

[jp702006]

I concur. I had a $6 exacta and a $3 tri and thought the payouts were a little lite. Especially considering there was a 33-1 bomb underneath.

[boston]

No Redboard Sheets for World Cup day, but I believe Maftool has very similar TG numbers.  Maybe Maftool is the KD winner?  Maftool 1.5 points faster a month ago?  I would guess that Maftool only ran .5 point slower in UAE Derby - 7 wide in first turn and at least 5 wide in second turn.

[pizzalove]

Agreed.  I wanted Upstart so badly to just train up to the Derby. Looks like he really fired a solid beyer.  My have left a Derby winning effort in Florida.

Although I will admit I was shocked by such a high beyer for the race.  But then again those two horses were a mile in front.  Still the strangest Florida track ever.

[ajkreider]

This whole prep season has been weird.  The conterders have been winning by massive margins.  In how many races has the show horse been 10+ lengths back?!