Rag cannot get the Wood AND the Gazelle correct

[boston]

These two races will have very different variants.  If I understand Rags method of not separating variants then there is no way they get both of these races correct.  If they average the variant they will get both incorrect.

[TGJB]

It was a high wind day, they\'re just going to say everyone in the Gazelle ran bad because of the wind. That\'s the reason they gave Irwin for having Unrivaled\'s last Parx race completely collapse (not just that horse).

However, high wind does affect the TIME of races, which has the effect of creating different variants-- wind speed is being estimated by trackmen before and/or after the race (during it they are hopefully watching the horses), and if you get it wrong a little at high wind it can matter a lot because there\'s a square involved in the formula. The difference from 10 to 20 mph therefore does not matter as much as the difference between 20 and 30 (300 vs 500 after squaring). In this case both races were once around, though, so wind cancels out and the speed itself isn\'t the issue.

What can be an issue, however, is a slight difference in direction or a gust at a different point in the race when the wind is strong. Also, nobody has an accurate wind formula-- there\'s a very large structure standing right next to the track, and wind bounces off it and creates currents. If you are out at Aqueduct, you can sometimes see the two infield flags actually pointing towards each other, meaning opposite ways, as wind comes around the grandstand and sucks back in.

The upshot is I don\'t take the teletimer as gospel when there\'s high wind, I give myself a lot of leeway. Or, you could just do what Jake does-- cop out and say everyone ran bad because of the wind.

[boston]

Race 4 non winners of one 1 1/8 mile - ran around 1/2 second slower seems to have around the same variant as the Wood.  The Gazelle is the one they will get VERY wrong.

Bay Shore was 5 lengths slower than the Carter in the 3rd quarter (maybe wind)?

[ajkreider]

Trying to remember my physics here, but do they really cancel?  They will be running longer into the wind than with it, so wouldn\'t the negative effect be greater than the benefit (especially if it\'s a stretch headwind)?

[TGJB]

Aqu is 1 1/8th track, so at that distance everything cancels.

[miff]

On a cold winters day we could start a string about wind/drafting/track changing speeds etc as explained to me by Dr.Mick Peterson. The short is, no fig maker is handling it correctly, scientifically speaking that is.It can only be accurately measured/quantified by the most sophisticated equipment along the exact position of each horse in a race,all the way around(drafting in behind horses is highly relevant on windy days) JB references the cross wind issue also, highly relevant and visible many a day at Aqueduct.

One theory is that windy race days that suck moisture out of a dirt surface may inadvertently cause \"double\" adjusting by fig makers i.e. one while adjusting for track speed variant,the second adjusting for the wind.The wind adjustment may be redundant according to the theory.


Know that TGJB has high regard for such matters, trying to make the most reflective figs, unsure how other fig makers handle this.

[TGJB]

Mike, if you really want to have some fun, ask them how they handle it.

Jerardi would give you an answer-- he\'s a thoughtful guy. Jake would delete you. If Friedman got to it first he would basically tell you that you have no idea what you\'re talking about, there\'s no issue.

Bottom line is we\'re not in a position to handle it scientifically. But the key thing is to know that figures can\'t be perfect, that issues like these exist, and that you have to use judgment, which means to a large degree relying on the data base you have hone over time-- previous figure histories of the horses.

Those who have been around long enough might recall that Ragozin used to claim accuracy to the quarter point...

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

Actually, as we\'ve discussed before, they don\'t cancel, for the reason you mentioned in your earlier post.  To make it simple, say a thoroughbred travels at 30 mph.  On a still day, the effective wind resistance is 30 mph.  Add a 10 mph headwind in the stretch.  The effective wind resistance is 40 mph in the stretch and 20 mph on the backstretch.  The difference between 30 and 40 mph is greater than the difference between 20 and 30 mph.

If memory serves, when we discussed this before, you made clear that it\'s not as simple as that because of the turbulence created by the grandstand.

[FrankD.]

Mike,

Hope you and yours are all well.

I\'m just really curious as to how you can make a statement like you just have and just a few days ago claimed that Beyer\'s speed figures are far and away the most accurate?

Frank D.

[mjellish]

There\'s no better way to do it than that.  I\'ve done enough of my own figures to know that there are days where 1 race on the card just doesn\'t fit, for whatever reason.  Timer malfunction, quirky wind, gate placement, change in water, etc.  Don\'t know why it happens.  But I suspect part of it can be gleaned by just watching a track maintenance crew in between every race on a day.  See if they do the same exact thing to the track after each race.  They don\'t, at least not always.

So when you get that one race that doesn\'t fit, what do you do with it?  Just not make a figure?  Make a figure that doesn\'t make sense for any horse that was in that race?

You have no choice but to split that race out and go off the horses and what you saw happen on the track.  In essence, you go with what makes the most sense, and sometimes that means you have to go back after a few of them run back and change the figure if the evidence supports this.

I appreciate Rags objective stance on just going with the number that doesn\'t make sense for any horse in the race simply because the number is the number.  That makes it easy and in some sense, pure.  I just don\'t agree with it because I am 100% certain those numbers turn out to be wrong more often than they are right.

[TGJB]

MJ-- even if they are doing the same thing after every race it doesn\'t mean the track is staying the same. If the amount of water they add each time is less than the amount that\'s evaporating each half hour it will dry out as the day goes on, and vice versa.

[miff]

Frank D,

You love your ground loss/weight adjustments don\'t you?


Easy one pal, sans science I stand by TG most reflective performance figs, Beyer most reflective speed figures.....by a pole.

There are no pure scientifically correct figures being produced,but the methods employed by TG and Beyer stand above the rest when you track and compare the results vs all the rest.

Mike

P.S. American Pharaoh is being compared to Seattle Slew while never having been hooked, get ready to attack..errr maybe!

[ajkreider]

It\'s not just the Gazelle.  The 6th race allowance horses got the 7F a second quicker than the Bay Shore.  Juba\'s a decent horse, but he just broke his maiden.  

Seems like the read is that the track slowed down a ton, and Frosted ran huge.

[FrankD.]

Almost as much as I love you Mike!!! LOL

I\'ll be hounding you for pace numbers on this Derby for sure.Is Jimbo still alive?

Frank D.

[vp612]

Ok I am back ,maybe it was a computer glitch.For some reason the WOOD always seems to get your juices flowing.Let\'s talk about this split variant thing,now we have established that I cannot discuss numbers because I don\'t know how to make them.Let\'s assume they got the wood,gazelle numbers wrong.They now give a horse an 8 that should have got 10 and so on.So we now have 15 .20 horses with wrong numbers on their sheet.Well if you believe that ,they always get it wrong for the last 25,30 years then they must have a completely contaminated data base with wrong numbers.So you have people like me betting horses we believe are for ward moving(and they are not) and tossing horses who might have a shot because of bad numbers.How stupid does that sound.?More importantly the big owners and trainers that use them(I am sure  you know they have those)Are getting the wrong information about a horse they want to run in a graded stake.Oh yes I forgot the big owners and trainers use them because they are cheaper.Oh yes we must save 300,500,1000 a month and use inferior numbers.Do you realize how silly that sounds.