The Pharaoh and the Maiden?

[Tavasco]

Re: Arkansas Derby

I just became aware that a maiden may win enough points to enter the Kentucky Derby. Win the Space is 30/1 and less than a point slower than American Pharaoh on the free RagozinPPs ROTW.

Further, American Pharaoh has no pattern he keeps getting 6+\'s and that, I\'ve read, is not good. If it weren\'t for the fact that he can\'t beat Maidens @ OP I would be tempted to bet him to win as it is easy to imagine continued improvement on such a lightly raced horse stretching out. It is also easy to imagine other performances.

I am currently searching for a proposition bet between he and Far Right as to which will be last at the first call. Because the Mdn is moving in from sprints I have confidence he will smoke Far Right and his patient (Zenyatta experienced) pilot Mike Smith.

I hope the M/L holds up, then there is that Lucas guy. Hard to get past the prejudice of the hype. Not only had I given AP the 100 pts but picturing how he looked in roses. I guess they will have to run the race like always.

[toppled]

Here\'s a different take on Pharoah, who also has 3 straight matching #s on TG sheets:

He ran fast in his 2nd race on poly and paired that number when switched to dirt and stretched out.  Then he was out injured the rest of his 2yo year.

He comes back & immediately runs back to his 2yo top, a sign of good health & an impending explosive forward move.

I seriously doubt that Win the Space\'s #s on TG will be as close to AP\'s #s as Rags has them.  Also keep in mind that 7 on Rags was at 7f & the Ark Derby is 1 1/8-big difference. BTW-both WiS\'s races were against SA maidens not OP maidens.

[Tavasco]

Toppled:

Looking forward, what numbers do you think set AP up perfectly for Kentucky. If he runs a >=TG -1 (which wouldn\'t surprise me) then one needs be concerned with a May bounce?

Better, he runs a +- 0 suggesting more available. Or most confusing he pairs again. Is he a toss if he backs up?

[ajkreider]

Fame and Power in the Lexington might tell us how your maiden will do at Oaklawn.  Lots of services gave that SA race a big number, but I\'m skeptical.  The top 3 all ran huge?

Far Right isn\'t the fastest, but loved how he won his last - strong finish as the high weight.  Seems a horse the jock can maneuver at will.  Planned layoff.  Great last drill.  Don\'t see him catching AP, but will be a strong 2nd.

[TGJB]

It was a fast maiden race, but the reason Jake has him almost as fast as AP has to do with the Cal sprint/route problems Ragozin has, and which I\'ve been talking about here for a decade. They have the sprints 2 points too fast relative to routes, which is why they have him only 1 point slower than AP when we have him 3 points slower.

[toppled]

I think he can go a long way forward without an anticipated bounce. This is Baffert, not Pletcher, so I\'m not concerned as much with a huge forward move like a lot of the Pletcher failures.  I couldn\'t find a Baffert horse similar to AP in the archives, so I\'ll revert to the TGIs.  His sire\'s TGI at 3 is 5 points better than at 2.  If Pharoah goes -3 in Ark, I could still see him pairing in the Derby.  On the other hand, if it\'s an easy race I could see him run a 0 to 1 h? and have the big forward move in the Derby. either way, I\'m expecting a -2 to -3 in the Derby, as long as he stays healthy & makes it.  If he runs a -3 & gets injured everyone will say he ran too fast in Ark.

[Tavasco]

A Good tip! I\'ll watch the Lexington with interest.

Mmm...Fame and Power looks a lot faster than Win The Space. That last fraction gives me confidence in the stretch out. Plus Baffert.  I was skeptical of the Mdn before TGJB made his point. Apparently connections are optimistic and why not at this point. 30/1 still moves me, I\'ll use on the bottom (tris & super) but I\'m back to the most obvious exacta of the week. Wait, I can\'t play an exacta paying ?? 3/1.

Good Luck To Those That Do!

El Paso

[boston]

I took a bite of the Maiden at 200 to 1 to win the Ky Derby.  A 3rd place in the Ark might get him in.

[Kasept]

Also be aware that in addition to Fame and Power in the Lexington (KEE 10th; 5:18p ET), Wolf Man Rocket -- between Fame and Win the Space in that SA 7f MSW -- runs in the Northern Spur (OP 10th; 6:41p ET).. With any progress from the 4.25, Win the Space appears to have an authentic opportunity to come with one run and pick up a real piece.

[Fairmount1]

With Fame as the heavy fav most likely, what about TAP?  I normally love when he has a private purchase off of a trainer that doesn\'t seem to be one of the nation\'s premier trainers and the horse has already flashed at least some ability.  Plus he has a history of success in the Lexington.  And this year is no exception with his 3yo\'s.    

However, tomorrow, I\'m hesitant.  I recall School on a Hill, a Covello purchase from the same trainer off a maiden win.  School never won a race for Covello who ended up (happily?) losing him in a $40k claim.  

Curious Jcovello\'s thoughts on if he would claim a horse from that trainer again or if his experience would affect his opinion on this horse.  These are the Danza connections from a year ago.  Obviously 10 points gets you nowhere near the Derby but I find it interesting they are starting in the Lexington, not the Ark Derby....seems like a more \"realistic\" spot.    

Regardless, my opinion is to use the horse in the pick 4 but I can\'t single him....if not for the School on a Hill memory in my mind, I probably would.  Others thoughts?

[Tavasco]

That Santa Anita Maiden Race sure got its fair share of attention. Now that 30/1 is probably a pipe dream I have a few updates to my thinking.

First, perspective - it is 4:30 a.m. and F1 qualifying just finished for the Chineses GP no surprises MBZ. I\'ve just watched a series of top flight Australian races and Criterion who I think just won a spot in this fall\'s breeders cup couldn\'t have looked more impressive in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. So I\'m reviewing my thoughts about \"moving day\" in the U.S.

1. Jordan Spieth in the Georgia race comes back to the field, at least somewhat.

2. George Papaprodromou I discover bats 20% with shippers not bad! Third place in the Arkansas Derby pays $100K and fourth $50K. A little less than winning the Lexington or the Northern Spur respectively vs horses that beat him. All three of which are very likely to be won by Baffert. Who needs points when you have $\'s Prepping for the Preakness keeping with the idea of fresh rested horses.

Profiling The Arkansas Derby

I\'m going out on a limb in this one - I don\'t think AP will lead gate to wire. Mr. Zee & Bridgets Big Luvy will set the early (1/2 - 3/4 mile pace, But I expect both to wilt.  Madefromlucky will press again looking to run second or third and get to the KD.  The maiden will not be far back but rather mid pack and could inherit 3rd. Far right will be and far back for too long.

To those who fancy pace as a component of their handicapping it is worth noting that American Pharaoh is arguably the fastest finishing horse (too date) of the U.S. based derby hopefuls. Also most trainers know by now you can\'t beat Baffert by following him.

Consequently, I\'ve concluded the value in the race is in beating Big Race Mike Smith (not easy). Exacta under AP with the maiden. Trifecta AP / Madefromlucky / Win the Space. That\'s my story and I\'m sticking to it until this afternoon, no scratches please.

The million dollar question is what if American Pharaoh does get headed in silly fast early fractions how will he handle it?

[richiebee]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> With Fame as the heavy fav most likely, what about
> TAP?  I normally love when he has a private
> purchase off of a trainer that doesn\'t seem to be
> one of the nation\'s premier trainers and the horse
> has already flashed at least some ability.  Plus
> he has a history of success in the Lexington.  And
> this year is no exception with his 3yo\'s.    
 
> Regardless, my opinion is to use the horse in the
> pick 4 but I can\'t single him....if not for the
> School on a Hill memory in my mind, I probably
> would.  Others thoughts?

Ah, Todd \"Preps\" Pletcher. Good in this race, 24% with new acquisitions. Plops
one of America\'s top jinetes in the saddle. How much of a forward move
will he make? It needs to be significant if he is to have an impact and the
connections will make the price here a cause for circumspection.

Without offending figure and pattern playing purists, I must point out that my
impression is that there will be a hotly contested pace here among Divining Rod
(who \"got the bounce out of the way\" in his last effort at Tampa), stretch out
sprinter Henry Jones, and Fame and Power.

Might set up for Asmussen\'s Tiznow RJ, whose TG #s in the mile and 70 FG races
make him arguably fast enough to compete with these. Could creep up from the
5/1 ML with plenty of attention going to those princes of Derby Prep, TAP and
Bob Baffert.

[jbelfior]

One of these days Alice....Bang, zoom!!!!

Good Luck,
Joe B

[miff]

Upstart Spiked a fever and missed his work this am.Could be disasterous if not gone in a day or so without use of heavy meds.

[jp702006]

I like your thoughts. I will also be using Bold Conquest underneath. He looks like he could be sitting on a nice forward move. His 20-1 morning line makes him even more enticing. Good luck today!