The Pharaoh and the Maiden?

[toppled]

Here\'s the pace scenario I expect: I see it differently that the race shape, I see Mr Z alone on the lead (unless he runs like he did in La. where he won\'t be a factor very long).  If anyone wants to go with him it\'s up to them.  American Pharoah sits either 2nd behind a loose on the lead Mr Z or 3rd if someone goes out with him. I\'m sure the Zayats have told Lukas something like-Go ahead and wing it loose on the lead, we need to see how American Pharoah runs after a target.  If you win it, great, we\'ll have another horse in the Derby, but, don\'t do anything that screws up American Pharoah, like drifting into him in the stretch if he\'s going by.

The only horse that I think can beat AP is the other Zayat, Mr Z.  That\'s not what I expect & AP will be singled in my P3s & P4s.  But I don\'t see anything close to Mr Z down the backstretch.  Most likely: AP goes by Z early in the stretch & then Z gets swallowed up by the closers, but depending on how comfortable he is on the front end Z could hang on for 2nd.

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fairmount1 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > With Fame as the heavy fav most likely, what
> about
> > TAP?  I normally love when he has a private
> > purchase off of a trainer that doesn\'t seem to
> be
> > one of the nation\'s premier trainers and the
> horse
> > has already flashed at least some ability.
> Plus
> > he has a history of success in the Lexington.
> And
> > this year is no exception with his 3yo\'s.    
>  
> > Regardless, my opinion is to use the horse in
> the
> > pick 4 but I can\'t single him....if not for the
> > School on a Hill memory in my mind, I probably
> > would.  Others thoughts?
>
> Ah, Todd \"Preps\" Pletcher. Good in this race, 24%
> with new acquisitions. Plops
> one of America\'s top jinetes in the saddle. How
> much of a forward move
> will he make? It needs to be significant if he is
> to have an impact and the
> connections will make the price here a cause for
> circumspection.
>
> Without offending figure and pattern playing
> purists, I must point out that my
> impression is that there will be a hotly contested
> pace here among Divining Rod
> (who \"got the bounce out of the way\" in his last
> effort at Tampa), stretch out
> sprinter Henry Jones, and Fame and Power.
>
> Might set up for Asmussen\'s Tiznow RJ, whose TG #s
> in the mile and 70 FG races
> make him arguably fast enough to compete with
> these. Could creep up from the
> 5/1 ML with plenty of attention going to those
> princes of Derby Prep, TAP and
> Bob Baffert.

Crept up to 11/1, 5 MTP

[richiebee]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> > Could creep up from the
> > 5/1 ML with plenty of attention going to those
> > princes of Derby Prep, TAP and
> > Bob Baffert.
>
> Crept up to 11/1, 5 MTP

P-Dub:

\"Crept\" also a good description of the way Tiznow RJ ran.

Hope all is well with you.

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > > Could creep up from the
> > > 5/1 ML with plenty of attention going to
> those
> > > princes of Derby Prep, TAP and
> > > Bob Baffert.
> >
> > Crept up to 11/1, 5 MTP
>
> P-Dub:
>
> \"Crept\" also a good description of the way Tiznow
> RJ ran.
>
> Hope all is well with you.


Geezus, nobody makes me laugh harder than you.

Flipping between Masters, horse racing, and A\'s game.  Wife attending a baby shower.  The blind one resting on my lap.

Nothing like an empty house to enjoy a day of sports and gambling.

[Tavasco]

\"Moving Day\" was all it was cracked up to be!

Several of many memorable thoughts from the last 48 hrs.

1. American Pharoah now has a pattern other than pairs very much like Toppled predicted. Again that\'s Pharoah accent on OAH!

2. Jordan Spieth did not back up and continues to impress but as one of my favorites sang... It\'s not over till it\'s over.

3. The maiden gave Boston & I a thrill rallying into the stretch and as TGJB insisted is just not very fast. He did smoke Far Right early no wonder I couldn\'t find any takers on my 1st fraction proposition.

4. Mike Smith is tough to beat. The $1 exacta paid $3.50 wish I\'d had it in retrospect. AJ?

5. Twice horses trained by BB rallied from behind the pace to win today. Putting to rest once and for all my rumor that BB uses big cats to train his runners. But where are his slow ones?

6. Like birdying the 18th winning the last makes me want to come back.

[PapaChach]

Those birdies on the 18th will kill ya.

Last year I picked up the sticks again for the first time in 25 years. Back then I was fairly good, but not as good as I wanted to be or thought I could be, so I threw in the towel.

Played once a week, early Sunday mornings, snuck out on the occasional Friday or three. After about six weeks played a nice mid-80\'s round at a respectfully difficult public course in Albany. Thought I\'d be down in the 70\'s at least once after that, but started going in the wrong direction.

Two or three weeks into the descent I thought, well, maybe I\'ll wrap it up for the season now, but it was still only early August, snuck out one Friday to play the Spa (Home Of The Thoro Graph Open). Played horribly all day but was having fun, my Dad was with me, and at our ages, after all we been through, just being out there with him was enough.

After playing 17 holes of utterly putrid golf that had me thinking, no seriously, THIS IS IT, I am done for the year, I get up on the 18th tee and rip a drive about 285, 290 down the center of the fairway, hit a soft, mile high wedge in to about twelve feet, and sink the birdie putt.  

I played until the end of October, and never shot better than 95 the rest of the way, and shot way more than that several times.

&&&

In the minority here, it seems, but I\'m more inclined towards miff\'s view that AP will be bet hard come first Saturday.

Last prep of the season will stand out in public memory, and he made it look like a workout. I think if he trains really well leading into the race, the hype is going to be tremendous.

Or maybe this is wishful thinking on my part. At 9/5 in a field this deep with tasty options, I\'ll take my shots against him and if he beats me, so be it. At 5 or 6 to 1 the decisions get trickier. Would be sick if he busted me out of a P4 at those odds.

Been following the game since 1987, and in all the years since, never have seen a crop as good as that one, and never thought I would. It\'s still early, but I\'m starting to think I was wrong.

[TGJB]

If you hit a drive 290 on 18 and hit wedge, either a) you were playing the white tees, or b) you\'re really effin long. I hit one that far from the blues and couldn\'t get there with a 4 iron.

[richiebee]

Meanwhile at the Masters, I think the Kid hits the wall on the back 9 tomorrow.
Will anyone be close enough to pick up the pieces?

[PapaChach]

Oh, I play bad enough from the whites, thank you. Playing from the blues would be cruelty. They move that tee box around, too. I was about 110-120 out when I hit that wedge. If they had the whites up that day the drive may have been less than 285-ish, I was just going off the scorecard.

But yes, I am in fact fairly long. Unfortunately, I am often long into the rough, if I am lucky, and long into the wooded areas. At least at the Spa it is often easy enough to find your ball in those woods, and sometimes you can even hit it out of there.  On the other hand, hit a drive into the thicket (or is it fescue?) to the left of the 1st tee one time last year; found the ball and decided to hit it. Hit it literally about nine yards, and couldn\'t find it.

Have had some advisors suggesting a switch to the three wood off the tee this year...

[PapaChach]

I paid no attention today, limited free time was spent picking the last-place finishers in Keeneland\'s late pick five. Surprised to check just now and see him only up four. Four\'s close enough to make things at least a little uncomfortable for him, especially with a bogey or two on the first five or six holes.

Have missed most of the whole thing but have some time to watch tomorrow, hope someone or more makes a run to make it interesting.

[miff]

Mike Welsch:

Rick Violette reports Upstart continues to do well, temperature remains normal, could return to the track as early as Tuesday