How good is this crop???

[miff]

American Pharaoh 105 Beyer puts him in TG neg-1 territory while not all out late.

[SoCalMan2]

Topcat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > They have a lot of horses to bet this year.
> > Materiality, Carpe Diem, Firing line and
> Frosted
> > all have to take money. Very surprised if
> anyone\'s
> > less than 3-1.
> >
> > More interesting question is whether they get
> 20.
>
>
> . . . as \"the madness of crowds\" kicks in . . . if
> there ever was a year for the lesser speed types
> to duck the issue, this is it . . . but the moths
> seem to be attracted to the flame, more than ever.


I agree with TGJB -- for some of the horses, entering the race will be ridiculous.  It seems to me there should be a HUGE gap in the odds somewhere in this field where something like the 10th best horse should be 30-1 and then the 11th best horse should be like 75-1 and the rest higher -- If I am wrong, I feel like the gap should be wider than that.  

This reminds me of the year of Spectacular Bid where very few people wanted to enter against him and some wisenheimer entered a hopeless maiden in the race and the horse actually got the spot in the gate next to the Bid.  The difference this year is there are about 6 horses like the bid and about 6 hopeless horses that will enter no matter how insane it is.  It will be a real shame if somebody enters a piece of furniture in the race and it ends up affecting the outcome trip wise.

Also, if a bunch of hopeless bums do go in the race at 50-1 instead of the 150-1 they should be....it seems to me that there is a large amount of dead money in the pool....the problem is what is the most effective way to go after that?

[SoCalMan2]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Totally agree. This is 1978 all over
> again.......Affirmed, Alydar, Believe It.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B


I remember 1978 well and this is the only other crop I have seen that can compare to that (runner up has to be \'87). Even though \'78 was so strong (and there were other good ones that year you are leaving out), I feel that this year is even better than that.  My cousin (Joe Hirsch) always insisted to me that \'57 was a magical year and that he felt so lucky to have been able to witness something like that and that it would be another 100 years before a crop like that would come around again (looks to me like he was off by 42 years).  I always felt unlucky to have not been around for \'57.......but it looks like my ship is coming in this year.

The sad thing is that here we have potentially the greatest year in horseracing that this sport can offer, and nobody outside us degenerates are noticing.  Why aren\'t the sharp madison avenue types pointing out things like it is not possible to see Muhammad Ali-Joe Frazier, or the \'69 Mets, the likes of Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, or, in football, Joe Namath at his peak (yes, prejudiced on this one due to Namath\'s closeness to Hirsch)......but in OUR sport, you can!!  To me, just the marvel of the spectacle this year should sell it in droves.  If people understood they were being giving a chance to glimpse Olympus, they should come out in droves.

All those journalists that for years were bemoaning another weak crop owe it to report what this crop is truly like.  Where is Drape?  The NY Times just doesn\'t want to print any good news about horseracing because they are afraid of turning off their moralistic readership (and I say this being part of that readership in all other categories and being a faithfully daily reader)

[miff]

Isn\'t it time for the NYT/Joe Dope to be writing some sensational negative bullcrap article about racing?

[jbelfior]

It\'s so good that if they all make the gate, a horse like El Kabeir will be 40-1 or better.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[miff]

Making matters worse, Materiality too fast too soon? Scorched PBD ending the last 1/4 of a work in 22.50 over a nice workmate Stanford.Observer said Mat bounced off the track with his ears up like radar.

....had him a toss!

Also:
Upstart temperature normal this a.m. says Rick Violette who is \"taking things a day at a time\" but \"cautiously optimistic\"at this point\"


....was he treated and how did blood come back is what matters

[mjellish]

Heard the same thing about Materiality\'s work, from someone who has seen him in the AM before.  Said this was his best work ever and he appears to be moving forward off the FL Derby, which is kind of scary.

Still, it\'s pretty tough to play him with confidence knowing he may not have the experience to do what the race calls for.  Any other year, at the 5 or 6-1 he would probably be, this would be a play against for me.  But at 12 or 15-1 as the 4th or 5th choice??

I, for one, wish they would have the post position draw this week so I could actually start handicapping this race now as I think I may need all 3 weeks to do it.  Who winds up next to, inside and outside of who this year probably really matters.

[jp702006]

This race could be a $400 trifecta if the favorites run true to form, or a $40,000 trifecta if you can keep the Baffert duo out of the top 3. I am anxious for the seminar this year. Does a handicapper just punch multiple tickets with the captain obvious horses? Or does one shoot the moon and hope for the year making score? I look forward to the banter over the next few weeks!

[TGJB]

Miff, the Drape thing is a great line.

[TGJB]

Looking at Race Day time, weight ground differentials, that\'s about my seat of the pants guess without having looked at the day.

No other comments until the seminar.

[FrankD.]

Bring your A game for this seminar JB!!!!

Race Day in a dog fight with the same 3/4 and only 2 ticks slower to the mile than AP\'s race then drew off.

Agree with many that 78 & 87 crops are born again here with this bunch of negative number runners. May they all stay sound for the impending battles.

Now turn the once a year lunatics loose.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[Ill-bred]

Have not seen anyone else other than you reference the fact Race Day carried 116 while Pharoah had 122. Significant, and obviously will be reflected in the TG fig. Looking forward to this Derby.


TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Looking at Race Day time, weight ground
> differentials, that\'s about my seat of the pants
> guess without having looked at the day.
>
> No other comments until the seminar.

[P-Dub]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Topcat Wrote:

> I agree with TGJB -- for some of the horses,
> entering the race will be ridiculous.  It seems to
> me there should be a HUGE gap in the odds
> somewhere in this field where something like the
> 10th best horse should be 30-1 and then the 11th
> best horse should be like 75-1 and the rest higher
> -- If I am wrong, I feel like the gap should be
> wider than that.  
>
> This reminds me of the year of Spectacular Bid
> where very few people wanted to enter against him
> and some wisenheimer entered a hopeless maiden in
> the race and the horse actually got the spot in
> the gate next to the Bid.  The difference this
> year is there are about 6 horses like the bid and
> about 6 hopeless horses that will enter no matter
> how insane it is.  It will be a real shame if
> somebody enters a piece of furniture in the race
> and it ends up affecting the outcome trip wise.
>
> Also, if a bunch of hopeless bums do go in the
> race at 50-1 instead of the 150-1 they should
> be....it seems to me that there is a large amount
> of dead money in the pool....the problem is what
> is the most effective way to go after that?

There are horses entered in stakes racing every week with little chance to win. The Breeders\' Cup races have many horses without a shot at winning.

Buster Douglas wasn\'t supposed to beat Mike Tyson either.

I\'m sure many of us can give a list of \"hopeless\" horses that have won a big race.

Owners pour a lot of money into this sport, if they have a horse eligible to run, I don\'t have a problem with it no matter how hopeless they may seem on paper.

[mjellish]

Mine That Bird

[miff]

Giacomo