How good is this crop???

[joemama]

Depends on ones bankroll.  The obvious answer.

[joemama]

Watch it rain and the track comes up a sloppy mess, then what?

[TGJB]

Actually, if you give the group that was close together behind him about what they were running, won\'t come out that fast. Obviously h? though.

[mjellish]

Didn\'t look to me like some the ones behind him, including the 2nd place finisher, were preserved with very seriously.

[miff]

\"Actually, if you give the group that was close together behind him about what they were running, won\'t come out that fast. Obviously h? though\"

JB,

Why would you do it that way when there is another 1 1/8th to tie AP race to?

Mike

[ajkreider]

Seems like figure makers have to take the internal and external comparisons into account.  If a number for one race means you must conclude that in another race all runners moved up, chances are your number is wrong.  Isn\'t it always more plausible that with decent sized fields, most horses run in the ballpark of their usual abilities?

[fasteddie]

TGJB:

 My question also...will they get 20?? I hope not! I would love to see a single starting gate; as a fan for 50+ years, this is EASILY the best crop of my lifetime. Nine or ten deep, most have stayed away from each other, plus there has been some MIRACULOUS good handling of horses. Most are coming in sitting on forward moves. My take is AP looked too good, and will go back a little, Upstart and Frosted are major players, and the X-factor is who will make the pace, and how fast?

This is the first Derby in 40 years I will NOT bet, as it is impossible to quantify, and I am dying to see who will win. Best crop since 1966, with Buckpasser on the sidelines!

[TGJB]

Basically correct. Given a choice of tying one race to another ang giving 5 horses new tops or concluding the track changed speed and giving them what they usually run, the latter is clearly correct.

[miff]

Have only seen 3 sets of figs, not TG.All three tied both 1 1/8ths together.

[SoCalMan2]

I have no problem with people doing entering their horses that dont belong. Let them.  If I had a good three year old who didn\'t figure within 10 lengths of the top horses, in the Derby, I would be happy for people to run their similar three year olds int he Derby instead of against me elsewhere.

I recall also that that same year as Spectacular Bid, Woody Stephens had a very solid 3yo who was no Spectacular Bid, but was still a decent horse.  He won something like 7 or 8 3 year stakes races that year by simply avoiding Spectacular Bid while other people banged heads with Spectacular Bid (of course that Belmont happened).  Anyway, people can do whatever they want to do, but it seems to me that both Giacomo and Mine that Bird were not nearly as far behind the top horses in their years as the longshots in this Derby will be behind the top horses here.  

We have some horses coming into this year\'s derby who have won graded stakes prep races by 15 lengths, fully belong in this race, and they are still going to be 20-1 this year.  The true long shots in this year\'s race are going to figure to be at least 15 lengths behind the top horses if not more.....For Giacomo and Mine That Bird, it is hard to believe they looked even 10 lengths out of place.  I did not bet either of them, but I also did not give them a figure more than 10 lengths worse than the horses I bet in those years.

Also, I do think there are plenty of horses in this year\'s derby who should definitely be longer than 100-1 but will somehow be only 50-1.  It seems like there should be an angle there.

[Fairmount1]

The last time a horse was over 100-1 was the last time a horse was less than 2-1.  Miff gave thoughts AP might be that short, I can\'t see it but if he is you may see more \"correct\" prices in the win pool.    

2001:  Point Given, 1.80-1
Arctic Boy, 101.20-1
Startac, 102.40-1
(Keats was 95-1)

And there were only 17 horses in the race.

Simon Bray finally is noteworthy for something.  Longest priced Derby horse in the 21st century (trainer of Startac).  

I\'ve made a spreadsheet in Excel that has the ordinal betting rank in the win pool of every horse of the last 15 years (2000-2014), their odds, along with the ordinal ranking of the super finishers and the $2 vertical exotic payoffs.  If you are interested, I\'ll be glad to email to anyone that sends me their email address in a person to person message.  

You may find it interesting how often the top 4 wagering interests have been part of the tri and super.  All 15 years a top 4 betting interest hit the tri and a top 3 betting interest has been in the tri 14 of 15 years.

[richiebee]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> I recall also that that same year as Spectacular
> Bid, Woody Stephens had a very solid 3yo who was
> no Spectacular Bid, but was still a decent horse.
> He won something like 7 or 8 3 year stakes races
> that year by simply avoiding Spectacular Bid while
> other people banged heads with Spectacular Bid (of
> course that Belmont happened).  Anyway, people can
> do whatever they want to do, but it seems to me
> that both Giacomo and Mine that Bird were not
> nearly as far behind the top horses in their years
> as the longshots in this Derby will be behind the
> top horses here.  
 
SoCal:

Specune Noche.

The Woody colt you are referencing was named Smarten, owned by the Ryehill
Farm, ridden by Sam Maple. Smarten was the grand sire of the recently deceased
superstar stallion Smart Strike.

Time for this alta kokker to chime in on this \"great crop\". This is certainly a
fast and talented herd of Derby horseflesh.

Back in the day, before you would give the \"great crop\" designation, you had to
wait a little, to see how the 3YOs performed against older horses after the
Triple Crown races, a little more waiting to see how they themselves performed
as older horses, and even more waiting to see how they panned out at stud.
Different century, different game.

[Topcat]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mine That Bird


A superlative surface/shape read by Calvin . . . and an open rail, which -- to no one\'s surprise -- he hasn\'t gotten a glimpse of, since.

[Topcat]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
>  
> > I recall also that that same year as
> Spectacular
> > Bid, Woody Stephens had a very solid 3yo who
> was
> > no Spectacular Bid, but was still a decent
> horse.
> > He won something like 7 or 8 3 year stakes
> races
> > that year by simply avoiding Spectacular Bid
> while
> > other people banged heads with Spectacular Bid
> (of
> > course that Belmont happened).  Anyway, people
> can
> > do whatever they want to do, but it seems to me
> > that both Giacomo and Mine that Bird were not
> > nearly as far behind the top horses in their
> years
> > as the longshots in this Derby will be behind
> the
> > top horses here.  
>  
> SoCal:
>
> Specune Noche.
>
> The Woody colt you are referencing was named
> Smarten, owned by the Ryehill
> Farm, ridden by Sam Maple. Smarten was the grand
> sire of the recently deceased
> superstar stallion Smart Strike.
>
> Time for this alta kokker to chime in on this
> \"great crop\". This is certainly a
> fast and talented herd of Derby horseflesh.
>
> Back in the day, before you would give the \"great
> crop\" designation, you had to
> wait a little, to see how the 3YOs performed
> against older horses after the
> Triple Crown races, a little more waiting to see
> how they themselves performed
> as older horses, and even more waiting to see how
> they panned out at stud.
> Different century, different game.



Smarten . . . the Our Native of his year.

[SoCalMan2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
>  
> > I recall also that that same year as
> Spectacular
> > Bid, Woody Stephens had a very solid 3yo who
> was
> > no Spectacular Bid, but was still a decent
> horse.
> > He won something like 7 or 8 3 year stakes
> races
> > that year by simply avoiding Spectacular Bid
> while
> > other people banged heads with Spectacular Bid
> (of
> > course that Belmont happened).  Anyway, people
> can
> > do whatever they want to do, but it seems to me
> > that both Giacomo and Mine that Bird were not
> > nearly as far behind the top horses in their
> years
> > as the longshots in this Derby will be behind
> the
> > top horses here.  
>  
> SoCal:
>
> Specune Noche.
>
> The Woody colt you are referencing was named
> Smarten, owned by the Ryehill
> Farm, ridden by Sam Maple. Smarten was the grand
> sire of the recently deceased
> superstar stallion Smart Strike.
>
> Time for this alta kokker to chime in on this
> \"great crop\". This is certainly a
> fast and talented herd of Derby horseflesh.
>
> Back in the day, before you would give the \"great
> crop\" designation, you had to
> wait a little, to see how the 3YOs performed
> against older horses after the
> Triple Crown races, a little more waiting to see
> how they themselves performed
> as older horses, and even more waiting to see how
> they panned out at stud.
> Different century, different game.

Dobre utro, Richichik!

While I have no problem with your metrics, it seems to me that this hasn\'t stopped reporters over the years from bemoaning right about now the weakness of the current crop.  It seems that Geometry requires some sort of non-bemoan at this point.  

The only other thing I would point out is something for which I must give credit to my dvorodni brat -- some crops are some times so good that you do not need to wait.  I was not around for it, but as I understand it, going into the 1957 Derby, everybody already understood at that early point what a special group of horses those 3yos were.  While it is true that there always remain tests of time, did anybody really need any extra time to judge the tremendous machine after his super-equine Belmont?  By the same token, we need to avoid another Devil\'s Bag.  While it may still be too early, I think we need to be vigilant because the immortal moment may be just around the turn any second now.