Takes more than talent to win the KY Derby. More than any other race this one seems to make them fall apart. It\'s a large 20 horse field that they will never see again, at a distance that is usually farther than anyone has ever raced, in front of a loud, drunken cheering crowd that is larger than they have ever seen or will ever see again. So if they don\'t lay over the field they\'ve either got to get lucky and get the trip, or have the mind to hold it all together and make a trip.
As good as some of these are, I don\'t think anyone lays over this field. American Pharoah was impressive yesterday, but we don\'t know how he is going to respond when someone looks him in the eye and runs with him after a mile, and then someone else is coming behind them. And I don\'t think he has the top figure in this race anyway. Can he be this brilliant at 1 1/4?
For what it\'s worth I almost look at the mile marker as being the half way point of this race. I\'ve seen a lot of brilliant horses look great through the first mile of the KY Derby, but the next 1/8th really changes things. You are probably not going to win 1 1/4 race by going balls out from gate to finish unless you lay over the field or catch a seriously biased race track. Have to be able to shut down for part of the race and relax to get the distance.
On that note, it\'s interesting that this year we don\'t see many, if any, true need the lead types. Everyone seems willing to rate to some degree. But that could mean trouble. If you get that many together with the same running style and the field doesn\'t string out you are probably looking at a few very wide trips. So does anyone have the talent to go 4-5 wide on both turns and still win?
I don\'t think so. Not against this field.
And which of the top 5 or so colts have shown they can take dirt and overcome trouble?
Dortmund has that long stride and seems more athletic than most over sized colts, but I don\'t know how he responds if he gets stopped and has to get going again. All that separated him and Firing Line in two races is two heads, and Firing Line will be much higher odds and have better spacing.
Carpe Diem is a very serious racehorse. He must be smart as hell because he does not seem to get fazed by anything that goes on around him. I\'ve seen him tuck in behind horses and save ground, switch out, set or track the pace, go wide... Whatever he needs to do more or less. He went very, very wide in the BC Juv on the 2nd turn and still had enough left to rally up for second. Not many can do that. The way he laid down methodical 12 and change 1/8ths in the Bluegrass and then kicked away from the field seems to be a good indicator that he will get the 1 1/4. And I disagree strongly with the Beyer figure for that race. I have this guy as being one of the fastest. Will be curious to see JB\'s figure.
I think Upstart is cooked. He has number power to run back to but he lays it all out, every time and he\'s had 3 tough races. If he makes it to the race I say he bounces unless he shows me something really special in his training leading up to this.
Materiality could be any type. He\'s definitely fast. But I don\'t see how he could possibly have the mindset to hold it all together for this. Curlin couldn\'t do it. But in any other year Materiality would be 6-1 or less and be all the rage. This year he will probably be twice those odds and almost seems forgotten. So if you like him to win, can\'t blame you for betting it that way.
International star not getting any respect after sweeping FG prep races. This guy is heavily raced and has all the experience you would want. He didn\'t get much spacing between most of his races and they have shipped this little warrior from NY to Canada to California to Kentucky and then to Florida where he has trained and shipped in to FG for each of his races. Interesting that when he finally got some time off and spacing between 2 and 3 he came back with his best fig ever. He now comes into this with a nice forward looking line as a 3 year old and 5 weeks rest. He\'s also proven that he can relax and run his race through trouble and that he will save ground and go through tight spaces. Like very much how he still ran down the lone speed in LA Derby as those two drew off from the field. If he saves enough ground and gets out to fire he may get a piece of this at nice odds.
Frosted could be any type. Thinking the stable was all in for the Wood though and it may be tough for him to repeat that number.
The Dubai horse looked good beating that field but has never really won fast. Some day a colt is going to ship across the Atlantic and win in Louisville. But with this field being this good, is this the year to bet that Mubtaahij can do it? Will really have to show me something in his training to get my money. Who knows, maybe he will. I\'m willing to forgive slow figures out of slow early pace races, to a point.
Danzig Moon interesting type on the improve. Was not 100% for Tampa Derby and seems to be moving forward now. Seems like he has a chance to hit the exotics if he gets a decent draw and/or trip.
Speaking of post position draw, it always matters of course. But I\'m thinking this year it will really matter who winds up next to, inside and outside of who. They might have talent, but I don\'t know that a lot of them can change their style at this point. Anyone\'s guess who the pace setter turns out to be and how fast it is IMO.
Let\'s just hope for a dry, fair track.
