Couple of Early Thoughts

[miff]

\"Go back and look at the last 20 derby winners and see how many of them wore blinkers\"


No horse in modern history has added or taken off blinks for the derby and won.

[miff]

Out of app 110 running lines(pp\'s) there are less that 10 strict wire to wire wins by this group.

Who is really a confirmed one dimensional speed horse,going in...answer,really none of them after AP rated kindly on Sat.

[Tavasco]

You don\'t expect Dortmund to force the issue?

[Wrongly]

I know it\'s not many but Animal Kingdom and Real Quiet wore blinkers, think all others during that time were off the board.

[miff]

Tav,

Watch his races, he\'s not explosive from the gate, been wiring last couple races but has come from off the pace equally well.Derby Pace should come from AP, Dort, Materiality,Firing Line, a few others are tactical and could be close up with a sharp break.With this field believe the break will be a huge factor in the outcome.

Dortmund not real gate quick, have no idea where he will be, assume he goes for a spot up close. Grabbed a shoe in his last two races solid sign he\'s not adroit coming out of the gate, probably because he so big. He\'ll be there if he gets his galloping rythym going which dwarfs most of these.

Re your comments re splits/closers, 90% of derby winners are laying 1st or second just after the 3/16ths pole(fairly deep stretch)


Mike

[Tavasco]

Miff,

Thanks, I just watched the replays and I see your point. This requires a rethink on my part, somehow I had developed an incorrect opinion about him. Now I can\'t see him getting out first. That brings the chance of traffic complications into play and we haven\'t seen him encounter much of that.

[mjellish]

Which probably means wide trip and an inside post hurts him more than it helps.

[pizzalove]

the worst part about this is Baffert has two outstanding horses that can get the lead.  Without a doubt he will send one of them straight to the lead and then have his lead horse try and slow the pace down.  Wondering if there is a trainer smart enough to send his horse to the lead and maybe surprise everyone.