Tencendur

[Fairmount1]

Named after a warhorse in an epic French poem apparently.  

Obviously hasn\'t been mentioned once in the many discussions.  Lightly raced horse who seems to just keep improving.  Not sure what TG fig he earned in the Wood--I believe he earned a 100 Beyer but I\'m not completely certain.  Miff?  Ran against the bias in the Gotham.  Struck to the front like a winner at 1 1/8 miles in the Wood only to get passed by Frosted while well clear of El Kaiber.  Is this the next Funny Cide, not Upstart?

A fringe player compared to the big names but I certainly am interested in considering this \"other\" NY bred underneath.  Anyone else see him as tri or super possibility if he improves just a little on Derby Day?

[touchgold]

I think his line was like 4 3 going into wood....if he ran a 1 in wood i can see using at 40-1.

[Tavasco]

A short while ago while perusing news I was interrupted by an ad from The Motley Fool. In my words, their claim - making a fortune requires imagination losing a fortune can be accomplished through lack of imagination.

If I paraphrase it takes imagination to make a score, no imagination no score. The beauty of the pari-mutual system is that it is psychology. To score few will be in agreement with you.

Of course that was advertising designed by experts in falsity.

[miff]

NY Bred slow rat is eligible for NYB NW 1x. His Wood was a top and a giant performance, relatively speaking, TG 1 range with a forward looking line but with a big top....ugh!

[touchgold]

just looked at archives...funny cide came into derby with a 3 then a 1....

[Flighted Iron]

re:Tencendur

9.5, 9.5, 5.75, 4.75

[touchgold]

ahh...thanks

[ajkreider]

Don\'t like the way he finished the Wood at all.  By far the slowest final 1/8th of the top three.  El Kabeir finishes in front if the race goes another 1/16th.  Doesn\'t look like he will relish more ground.

Collmus had it right when he said, \"Tencendur is running the race of his life . . \"

[Agastache]

Looks to me like the jock switch from Cornelio to Jose Ortiz did this horse a world of good. I watched the Gotham replay and it seemed to me that Cornelio Velasquez didn\'t ride Tencendur with a lot of confidence. Seemed a bit tentative with him, especially around the far turn.

Ortiz put the horse into the race earlier in the Wood and it just seems like this guy likes to grind it out and won\'t give up.  Wide on both turns, so he\'ll probably get a huge number.

I\'ve seen worse 40-1 shots. If horses like Make Music For Me, Commanding Curve, Golden Soul, Closing Argument, Steppenwolfer, etc can crash the tri/super, then certainly this guy merits a look.

[ajkreider]

Amazingly (to me at least), this horse\'s pattern makes him the most likely horse to post a new top in the Derby - which makes him a win candidate, given his Wood figure.  The numbers go where they go, but it\'s gonna be real hard to make my wallet follow that one - even at what will be very generous odds.

[Tavasco]

So you can\'t bet them all, but no one said you can\'t bet many of them! We get so conditioned to finding one overlay dazed and confusing when faced with half a dozen.

[sekrah]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Amazingly (to me at least), this horse\'s pattern
> makes him the most likely horse to post a new top
> in the Derby - which makes him a win candidate,
> given his Wood figure.  The numbers go where they
> go, but it\'s gonna be real hard to make my wallet
> follow that one - even at what will be very
> generous odds.


Disagree strongly with this. Covered in another thread, but I think the odds of Tencendur posting a new top are extremely small.

[ajkreider]

I\'m inclined to your view as well.  I was just remarking on the pattern percentages on listed his sheet.

[PapaChach]

I haven\'t bought the figures yet, desperately trying to avoid the old paralysis by over analysis syndrome. But if I wind up seeing it the way you describe, with Ten likely to run a new top (having, I am guessing, already run a number that puts him at least on the fringes of contention) it will be hard for me to not be all over him. Give me a 30-1 shot that I can make a legitimate case for in a twenty horse field, I can\'t ask for much more than that. I am sure I would hedge, most likely in the P4s, in case he STB\'d, but I could live with myself if I went down swinging on a 30-1 shot I could make a case for.

[smalltimer]

Papa,
I see Tencendur as a horse that\'s had a lot of stuff thrown at him in his career.  5 straight routes, 4 different jockeys, now blinkers for two straight, moving from inner surface to regular surface, 3 off track races. Since they added the hood he works quicker in 4 of the 5 workouts.
Eventually they may find this horses\' comfort zone and then see where he goes from there.
Maybe the horse hasn\'t even been able to concentrate on just running with all the changes that occur.
I can see using him myself somewhere on a couple tickets.  Wouldn\'t be the first time many of us used a horse that could get lost on the odds board.
Good luck and keep on swinging (horse race type swinging, of course).