Materiality

[covelj70]

top 4

1) Materiality - already beat this topic to death today so peace now on this topic

2) AP - not bred for it but I have never seen a horse that moves as well as this horse so much better shot of getting the distance than another horse with this same pedigree.   Absolutely brilliant moving horse

3) Dortomund - big and fast and Baffert will have him ready if he\'s in the gate

4) International Star - not fast enough on TGs but love running style and athleticism a lot for a race with this many front runner types

[Michael D.]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> Fairmount, I just went back and looked
>
> There were 7 horses in the Gemologist Derby that
> had run faster than Gemologist had coming into the
> race.
>
> Not picking on you or anything b/c I think this
> proves the whole point about Pletcher and the
> Derby.
>
> Conventional wisdom is that Gemologist was the
> horse to beat that year.
>
> No one who uses the TGs should have considered the
> horse won of the main contenders let alone the
> horse to beat
>
> the fact that you cited him as a horse that was a)
> the fastest and b) had the pedigree is case in
> point that most of the ones that people cite as
> examples of Pletcher disappointing in the Derby
> aren\'t good examples at all.
>
> again, really not trying to trying to pick on
> anyone bc I had others text me \"gemologist\" after
> my post


Agree. Gem was a bit slow and never looked like he\'d be at his best going a mile and a quarter. Weak 8-1 shot.

[Michael D.]

TGJB Wrote:
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> The issue is not specific to Materiality. But re
> him, the question (one of them) is what \"his race\"
> is outside Florida.
>
> Quality Road, Dreaming Of Julia... it\'s quite a
> list of giant Pletcher GP figures, and not just
> with 3yos. Amazingly, Constitution came back

> around after he got back there.


Materiality\'s 1/2 sis, My Miss Sophia, trained by Pletcher, shipped to CD just fine last year when placing in the Ky Oaks.

[smalltimer]

J
I\'ll consider these 4, however, I always wait till I hear some in-depth analysis from Johnny Weir.

[Michael D.]

current odds across the pond -

AP 2-1
Dort 5-1
Carpe 8-1
Mubt 12-1
Material 14-1
FiringL 16-1
Frosted 16-1
Upstart 20-1
Int Star 25-1
El Kab 40-1
Danzig M 40-1

[johnnym]

SmallTimer the Johnny Weir very witty

[johnnym]

Michael D. Wrote:
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> current odds across the pond -
>
> AP 2-1
> Dort 5-1
> Carpe 8-1
> Mubt 12-1
> Material 14-1
> FiringL 16-1
> Frosted 16-1
> Upstart 20-1
> Int Star 25-1
> El Kab 40-1
> Danzig M 40-1

Their is no way Int Star goes of at 25-1.
Frosted at 16-1
both are 2 or my top 3 horses.

[Silver Charm]

Jimmy Jerkins had Quality Road in Florida as a 3YO. The trainer switch to Pletcher came when he missed the Derby. Pletcher had Dunkirk that year. Now the next year QR FREAKED In the Donn......so to prove TGJB\'s point there have been some Freakish numbers put up by Pletcher in Florida.

Dreaming of Julia - Neg 8
Quality Road - Neg 7
Verrazano - Neg 4

That\'s the trap with Materiality. If he is 12-1 you are right for seeing it that way. Half that then run......

[Fairmount1]

Can any correlation be drawn that 3 of those board finishes were Winstar horses, Bluegrass Cat, Super Saver, and Revolutionary?
__________________________________


Quite honestly, that is the strongest reason I\'m interested in Carpe Diem.  

Also, JB\'s point after the Tampa Bay Derby that this horse was being properly prepped for the Derby.  Covello\'s comment that something must have been wrong is concerning (not sure if he knows or merely conjecture) but this is the one Pletcher on my radar as a possible use--not sure exactly where or to what degree yet.

[jp702006]

Do you have any concern regarding his pre race antics at Keenland? I know that it has caused me to be more cautious regarding this one.

[Fairmount1]

My Information Posted Earlier was inaccurate.  Wanted to Correct it since I\'m so difficult on TAP and for others\' benefit, if interested.
___________________________________
 

I believe his horses to hit the super are:

Impeachment, (6.20-1) Part of 4 horse entry. 3rd. 2000.
More Than Ready, (11.30-1), 4th. 2000.
Invisible Ink, (55.00-1), 2nd. 2001.
Bluegrass Cat, (30.00-1), 2nd. 2006.
Super Saver, (8.00-1), 1st. 2010.
Revolutionary. (6.40-1). 3rd. 2013.
DANZA.  (8.70-1).  3rd.  2014.

I find it interesting he had 3 horses hit the super in his first two years and only 4 horses hit the super in the 13 years since.

Total record: 40-1-2-3-1

17.5% in the Superfecta.

[Fairmount1]

Well, you never want to see a Life At Ten situation or a Quality Road BC Classic problem (2009).  

I personally won\'t let Diem\'s behavior bother me (since he still ran fantastic) unless something happens up until 5 minutes to post or so which would lead me to cancel my bets.

[TreadHead]

Verrazano\'s -4 was at MTH after a -2 at GP earlier that year, so this is what Jim is talking about I think.  The data is all over the place.

What I\'m more interested in is if on-track observers at GP noticed something \"different\" about the GP surface this year that might make comparisons to prior years not very wise.  

I only get anecdotal data from what I read \'cappers tweeting and blogging, but I don\'t remember ever hearing this many mentions of a \"deep, tiring surface\" at GP or a dead rail as I did this year.  It seems to me in year\'s past GP always seemed to be a speed/rail favoring tarmac and closers had little shot at all, to the point where some trainers were even complaining at florida derby time.

If that was the case in prior years, it could certainly make sense that horses that ran lights out (Pletcher or not) on those tarmac tracks didn\'t do as well at Churchill because it was a different enough surface.  But if this year, something has changed at GP and it is now more deep and tiring than it was in year\'s past on average, there may be something to it.

Or it could be the testing for sure.  Or some combination of both.

[metroj]

Gerard Wrote:
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> I like the Curlin comparison to AP this year.
> He\'ll be something special, but off the three
> weeks rest, and the big win, perhaps he gets off a
> step slow as has been written in this forum
> before.

Albarado\'s trip with Curlin as much his undoing as foundation/spacing imo.   Drew the 2 hole with a turf closer (Sedgefield) inside him ridden by Leparoux.   Julian beats him to the perfect rail stalking spot and Robby winds up three or four wide by the backside.  Probably doesn\'t beat Street Sense that day anyway but may have run down Hard Spun (2nd) who had done all the hard work on the pace.

[ajkreider]

The times are enough to show the difference, I think.  Can\'t remember the last time the Fl Derby went in 1:52.  That\'s a slow allowance race for 3 yr olds in years past.  I believe the FOY was the slowest in history at that distance.  

Plenty of FL Derby runners have done well enough at Churchill in May, and it\'s not like Churchill doesn\'t have its tarmac moments (Monarchos!).  So, it hasn\'t seemed to hurt the Barbaros/Orbs or even Ice Boxes in the recent past.