Materiality

[covelj70]

thank you very much for posting this, it\'s good info

I just cant get too wrapped up in his \"bad\" record when he won the race in 2010 and had horses hit the board in 2013 and 2014.  I think if anyone else did that, we would be talking about them like the next Carl Nafger.

[Wrongly]

Jim

Stick to your guns.  Danza 4 starts prior goes 3rd off layoff finishes 3rd, Revolutionary 6 starts prior goes 2nd off the layoff 2nd, and Super Saver 6 starts prior to the Derby goes 3rd off the layoff and wins.  Personally I like Carpe Diem better than Materiality but I\'ll be using both because I think all the TP hate will only add value.  

If we get rain, look out!  That could spell doom for all the AP lovers and blow up the tote boards.

[covelj70]

thanks for the thoughts

why would rain be a problem for AP?

he moved amazing in the slop in the Rebel?

[Wrongly]

Jim

Watch the Rebel he jumps out to the lead and never gets kick back.  Pioneer of the Nile off spring are less than 14% winners on off tracks.  Worst sire in the field for an off track.  May not mean anything but I see it as a major monkey wrench in the race.  Would most likely benefit International Star.

[covelj70]

Thanks for those stats

When a horse moves as well as AP moves in the slop, I don\'t think those stats are that useful.

You could convince me that he can\'t get the distance more so than the slop is a problem

Plus POTN ran great in the slop in the Derby

[miff]

Agree AP a very sweet mover, his forte.AP looked effortless on wet. Wet/distance grass breeding always trumped by performance on the track.Stats more useful before a horse has raced on a wet/grass surface or has gone long. Also conformation relevant when trying to gauge how a horse will do first time wet/distance/grass.

[Chas04]

Exactly. AP glided over the slop like he was out for a morning jog. That was also coming off a huge layoff & injury. Could not have been more impressive. What we need to try and figure out is all the horses who have not yet run over the slop yet & are in the field.....if it in fact it comes up wet.

[toppled]

According to the BRIS PPs Pioneerof the Nile has sired 19% for 57 wet track starts as of this past weekend.  Where did the <14% come from?

Edit: I looked up AP\'s sheet for last Saturday & it showed POTN\'s wet stats as 20% for 56 starts, confirming the BRIS data.

Edit 2:  Here are all BRIS wet track stats for top 24 Derby horses:
Horse-Sire mud stats win %/Dam\'s sire mud stats win %
International Star 16/12
Dortmund 18/16
Carpe Diem 13/18
American Pharoah 19*/16
Frosted 18/16
Mutaahij 27**/7**
Materiality 16/15
El Kabeir 16/18
Upstart 20/14
Far Right 12/18
Itsaknockout 18/17
Firing Line 13**/12
Danzig Moon 17/19
war Story 14/16
Tencendur 18**/13
One Lucky Dane 30**/13
Stanford 17/19
Mr. Z 17/19
Ocho Ocho Ocho 21/12
Bolo 23**/16
Madefromlucky 30**/27
Keen Ice 14/17
Frammento 17**/15
Bold Conquest 14/19

*-less than 100 starts
**-less than 50 starts

[miff]

You guys are \"mushing\" us with the rain talk!

[tommydw2000]

Is it possible for a horse that seems to be improving or maybe one coming into his own, to overcome his trainer and go on to win the derby; based only on the talents of the horse?

[Wrongly]

Toppled

I was using Jim Mazur sire ratings which did not include AP\'s Rebel victory.  POTN has only had 220 so far make it to the track, so maybe I\'m underestimating his offspring\'s ability to handle an off track.  

If CD were to take the rain that Keeneland did before the Bluegrass, it would be soup.

Miff, I\'m in the new winner circle seats which are uncovered.  I don\'t want rain at all.

[miff]

Tommy,

You just described most winners, it\'s mainly the horse.Give me the best horse every time, others can take the best trainer with a much lesser horse.


Mike

[Deadrockstar]

http://www.xkcd.com/552/

[Fairmount1]

Can any correlation be drawn that 3 of those board finishes were Winstar horses, Bluegrass Cat, Super Saver, and Revolutionary?

_______________________________________

If it matters to anyone, none of these three ran at Gulfstream Park.  

And neither has Carpe Diem.  

I\'m fairly certain Materiality will be a toss for me regardless of what I hear/read between now and Derby Day.  If that\'s my undoing, so be it.  But I\'m confident that is going to be a stand I take. If not for the Upstart problems recently, I would have thrown out a request to wager a head-to-head Upstart vs. Materiality.  You can guess who I would take.  And it still may work out that way.

[PonyBologna]

To your point about no one else having 2 9f preps. Stanford, Frosted and Mr. Z all have run twice at that distance (also Mubtaahij, as you noted already).

I look at Frosted\'s chart and the only issue I see is the one you raise about the surgery not lasting more than one race. If it holds, I see him being a big contender at a very big price.