Sheet on My Miss Sophia

[covelj70]

thanks for the thoughts,

in the interest of moving forward from this string and getting back to talking about the Derby, I will leave it there!

[smalltimer]

Quick stats here.  Does not take into account TOPS or new TOP, just overall percentages.
\'15 GP total starts 151/34 wins 19%, 3 yo starts 102/23 wins 22%
\'14 GP 241 starts/73 wins 30%, 3 yo 141 starts/45 wins 32%
[/b]\'13 GP 236 starts/66 wins 28%, 3 yo 118 starts/30 wins 25%

\'15 AQU 68 starts/13 wins 19%, 3 yo 43 starts/10 wins 23%
\'14 AQU 144 starts/27 wins 19%, 3 yo 76 starts/17 wins 22%
\'13 AQU 148 starts/35 wins 24%, 3 yo 70 starts/14 wins 20%

\'14 BEL 188 starts/44 wins 23%, 3 yo 94 starts/22 wins 23%

\'14 SAR 131 starts/28 wins 21%, 3 yo 48 starts/12 wins 25%
\'13 SAR 131 starts/36 wins 27%, 3 yo 59 starts/15 wins 25%

\'14 CD 21 starts/2 wins 10%, 3 yo 13 starts/1 win 8%
\'13 CD25 starts/4 wins 16%, 3 yo 13 starts/2 wins 15%


Overall pcts GP in last 3 years Overall win 28%, 3 yo 27%
Overall pcts AQU in last 3 years Overall wins 21%, 3 yo 22%

Overall pcts SAR in last 2 years Overall 24%, 3 yo 25%

Overall pcts CD in last 2 years Overall 13%, 3 yo 12%
Got this off Timeform, no promise of accuracy.

[miff]

Thanks Small, think it points out the obvious,TAP points to GP and Spa meets.Whatever he\'s using at GP doesn\'t seem to be working too well,relatively speaking.

[covelj70]

Thank you very much for taking the time to pull those stats

really interesting data

[smalltimer]

Not a Pletcher guy here, but nothing jumped out from the overall, except CD.

Since 2009 Pletcher with 3 year olds Derby 21-1-0-2.  
The story though is this:  7 starts have been single digit and hit the board 3 times which is not bad. 7-1-0-2-0
11 starters were double digit and he was 11-0-0-0-0 to hit the board,
3 of the starters were not only double digit but went off at 50/1+ and was 0-3.

Small sample, but in 21 starts if the horse went off above single digits he did not hit the board.  

The horses that were supposed to run decent, did, the longshots ran to their odds.  

Surprising thing is with J.R. up he is 4-0-0-0-0 finishes were 12th, 14th, 10th, and 10th. Those four went off at 15/1, 9/1, 6/1, and 12/1 so not really on complete outsiders.

If not for Borel 3-1-0-1-0 record would be 18-0-0-1, not that scary to play against.

[smalltimer]

Not to lengthen the string, but Baffert since 2009 is 9-0-3-0-1, with 4 starters in single digits, 1 horse at 10.60/1, and 5 double digit starters.

Todd and Bob are 30-1-3-2-1.  Again, gotta respect these two top trainers, but the numbers say they aren\'t that scary to play against in the Derby.

[miff]

Small,

Do not believe they ever had AP, Dort, Materiality and Carpe Diem types in prior years.

Mike

[smalltimer]

Mike,
Wouldn\'t argue that point due to the talent of these 4 horses.
The assigned jockeys on the mentioned horses with Materiality unknown at this time are 11-1-0-0-1 with Victor winning on Chrome last year.

Jockeys that Pletcher has used in past Derby\'s that may or may not be assigned a mount in this Derby and thus available:
(I didn\'t look at current Derby rider assignments). Since 2009.

J. Rocco 1-0-0-0-0
Bravo 1-0-0-1-0  (Danza)
JJ Castellano 4-0-0-0-0
Borel 2-1-0-1-0  (S. Saver and Revolutionary)
Prado 2-0-0-0-0
Bejarano 2-0-0-0-0
Rajiv 1-0-0-0-0
Mike Smith 1-0-0-0-0

14-1-0-2-0 and that\'s with Borel.

[Fairmount1]

Pletcher is 1 for 40 in the Derby.  No conspiracy.

One of Pletcher\'s stated goals as a trainer is to create Stallion Prospects for his owners.  What better race to create stallions than the Derby?  Certainly he is trying to win this race.  No conspiracy.

Pletcher trained a horse you bought into hoping to make the Derby.  In classic Pletcher form, the horse was hurt before the Derby arrived.  I point this out because you could or likely have a relationship with him that seeks to defend him.  No conspiracy.

The study involving Pletcher\'s TG stats as compared to how all Derby runners fare has a small problem from my perspective.  Why can\'t we compare how his Derby horses fared compared to how all of his graded stakes horses have fared?  I don\'t know but my bet is your study will have a different result.  More importantly, why is it unfair to hold him at the Derby and Churchill to the same standard he has set elsewhere such as Saratoga and Gulfstream?  

I am very uneducated in the science of chemistry (I\'m not a \"chemist\" as Dickinson states in his article) beyond what I have and attempt to read involving medication in horse racing.  I have no real world experience in this regard.  I do have a theory or two on what I believe is occurring not only with Pletcher\'s horses but with many other trainers\' horses.  I will not bore the board with these thoughts since they are merely conjecture.  I think Pletcher started a bit of a \"revolution\" among trainers in this regard,....and other trainers had to sink or swim out of necessity.  I don\'t think he currently is doing anything \"illegal\" or \"magical\" although again, I have thoughts on his training.  

My posts are intended to seek and find patterns to assist with solving the never ending handicapping problem especially the Derby puzzle which with Pletcher is as fascinating as ever.  I apologize if I have offended but I seek to win when I go to the window.  Typing my thoughts and conclusions helps me with making decisions.  Smalltimer\'s posts are exactly the kind of info I find very meaningful.    

I guess you would call this more cherry picking but why was Dunkirk not the fastest horse with the breeding to be a Derby winner?  (I\'m not asking why you didn\'t bet him but rather why doesn\'t he qualify under the question you posed the other day?)

I\'m not a Pletcher hater.  You probably think I bet against him every race.  Or that I have a voodoo doll like Moreno\'s trainer that is directed at him.  I do not.  I actually bet his horses in multi\'s often and had success in Derby preps with his horses, the first being Graeme Hall the first year I began following the game.  The patterns I\'ve seen seem pretty obvious in regard to the Derby and his super-fast maiden debuters that start at Gulf or run off the screen down there in stakes races.

As I told Treadhead about Verrazzano last year, you can have Materiality.  I don\'t see it and a big part of my reason is Pletcher\'s history with the Derby and Gulfstream superstars.  If I\'m wrong, I\'ll be the one eating crow.

[smalltimer]

Fairmount,
I\'m sorry I don\'t have time to do the Graded analysis like you suggested.  I did a quick 4 year olds and up for Pletcher, all sprints, routes, turf, etc., for the following tracks since 2009.

GP  419 starts/120 wins  29%
KEE 87 starts/24 wins    28%
AQU 343 starts/88 wins   26%
SAR 182 starts/42 wins   23%
BEL 270 starts/52 wins   19%
CD  97 starts/7 wins      7%

Because this is for all his races with 4 year olds and up it is very non-specific as to quality of horse/distance/surface/intent, etc.  

But, if you look at the above numbers, you just gotta ask yourself, \"which number looks out of line?\"

[Fairmount1]

Sorry to smalltimer for hijacking his excellent stuff here and building on it.

Since 2009, (6 Derby\'s), there have been 24 horses out of 116 go off at single digit odds.  Baffert and Pletcher have trained 10 of those 24 horses (41.6 percent of the single digit odds horses).  The bettors sure pour it in on them despite not being scary as smalltimer says.    

Those 10 horses:  10-1-2-2-0.

[dannyboy135]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fairmount,
> I\'m sorry I don\'t have time to do the Graded
> analysis like you suggested.  I did a quick 4 year
> olds and up for Pletcher, all sprints, routes,
> turf, etc., for the following tracks since 2009.
>
> GP  419 starts/120 wins  29%
> KEE 87 starts/24 wins    28%
> AQU 343 starts/88 wins   26%
> SAR 182 starts/42 wins   23%
> BEL 270 starts/52 wins   19%
> CD  97 starts/7 wins      7%
>
> Because this is for all his races with 4 year olds
> and up it is very non-specific as to quality of
> horse/distance/surface/intent, etc.  
>
> But, if you look at the above numbers, you just
> gotta ask yourself, \"which number looks out of
> line?\"

[smalltimer]

When they have contenders people play them, that\'s just good handicapping.
If the past numbers run true to form (possible), then AP, Dortmund, Carpe Diem and possibly Materiality will be single digit at post time.  If Jim C is correct and Materiality makes a great track appearance he may sneak into less than double digit odds.  
If the previous numbers are 10-1-2-2 then 50% of their horses in single digits hit the board.  If we are talking AP, Dort, Carpe, and Mat--which 2 hit the board and which 2 don\'t?
It\'s the only race in the USA where 16 really nice horses don\'t even fill out the super.

[dannyboy135]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fairmount,
> I\'m sorry I don\'t have time to do the Graded
> analysis like you suggested.  I did a quick 4 year
> olds and up for Pletcher, all sprints, routes,
> turf, etc., for the following tracks since 2009.
>
> GP  419 starts/120 wins  29%
> KEE 87 starts/24 wins    28%
> AQU 343 starts/88 wins   26%
> SAR 182 starts/42 wins   23%
> BEL 270 starts/52 wins   19%
> CD  97 starts/7 wins      7%
>
> Because this is for all his races with 4 year olds
> and up it is very non-specific as to quality of
> horse/distance/surface/intent, etc.  
>
> But, if you look at the above numbers, you just
> gotta ask yourself, \"which number looks out of
> line?\"

none of the races at gulf, kee,aq,bel r sar were 20 horse fields.  Makes a huge difference in the statistical analysis

[smalltimer]

Danny,
I didn\'t do an analysis, I said its very \"non-specific.\"  I spent 10 minutes pulling generic data from Timeform on Pletcher 4yo+ at different venues.

I can\'t argue the tracks do not have a 20 horse field like the Derby.  So I guess I missed the point of your comment?