Dosage Anyone?

[joemama]

Derby Distance #s DRF BRIS  This topic made me think of this.

Any opinions on the relevance of the whole dosage theory invented by Dr. Romans. There\'s a 12 page tutorial on his chef-de-race website which I couldn\'t get through without having a headache.  He has some numbers divided into 5 categories. B, I , C, S, P.  Then through some manipulation of these 5 categories he comes up with two other numbers called Dosage Index and Center of Distribution.  Very confusing but supposedly a system of determining a horses propensity for being a sprinter type of horse as well as a distance type of runner. I always thought the higher the total of all the numbers would equate to a horse being able to run further as long as he had some numbers in the S and P categories.  It seems looking at these numbers for this years derby contenders not many have numbers in these last 2 categories..  I don\'t know , does anyone find this info useful.All comments welcome and I won\'t take any of them personal. The tutorial is here: http://www.chef-de-race.com/tutorial/tutorial_title.htm

[miff]

Horse/Dosage

American Pharo   4.33  
Bolo      2.00  
Carpe Diem   1.83  
Danzig Moon   3.44      
Dortmund   2.38  
El Kabeir   3.57  
Far Right   1.50      
Firing Line   3.00      
Frammento   3.50      
Frosted      2.75      
International S   4.09      
Itsaknockout   1.29      
Keen Ice   2.73      
Madefromlucky   3.21      
Materiality   2.33      
Mr. Z       3.00  
Mubtaahij   1.00      
Ocho Ocho Ocho   2.11  
One Lucky Dane   3.40  
Stanford   3.36  
Tencendur   3.00      
Upstart      3.00      
War Story   2.73

[TGJB]

So if I understand this correctly, Ocho is supposed to have a better chance to get 1 1/4 than the ones with higher numbers?

[RICH]

AP and International Star both over 4.00 Dosage, just another reason to toss. As an old timer going back to the dosage years, should be interesting to see how these 2 run.

[miff]

Dosage may be somewhat predictive of how far breeding indicates but not how fast they will get there.

AP a toss on Dosage, last year Cali Chrome had 3.26

[smalltimer]

Thunder Gulch at 4.00
Real Quiet at 5.33
Charismatic at 5.72 in the 90\'s.

[joemama]

These were Orb\'s number:DP 11-12-15-0-2, DI 3.21, CD 0.75.  The total of the 5 categories is 40 which is a very high number.  I just don\'t know how to interpret this stuff.  When Count fleet won in 1943 his dosage numbers were DP 0-2-1-1-0, DI 1.67, CD 0.25.
Orb           11-12-15-0-2, DI 3.21, CD 0.75
Count Fleet    0-2-1-1-0, DI 1.67, CD 0.25

These numbers differ greatly.  I\'m thinking the lower the DI and CD the better.

[beazley]

And the dosage numbers can change after the fact once they decide to rate a sire as it did for Stike The Gold.  So now he qualifies when he didn\'t before the race

[TGJB]

Among other issues with Dosage. Like eliminating any effect on pedigree females might have, and just using selected names among the sire, and assigning them subjective values.

As I once said on Post Time, most of us would agree that our mothers had something to do with how we turned out. For better or worse.

[joemama]

Ahh, the goal posts can be moved.

[beazley]

I hear Pletcher\'s horses outrun their dosage at GP.