Booo, JV picked Carpe Diem, I am stuck with Javier

[Wrongly]

Jim

I of course would like to see what Jerry assigned the Bluegrass but go back and watch that race and note the way CD is clicking off 12 second 1/8ths.  I believe he ran 37 2/5 and 12 4/5.  He has proven he all his route races that he ran sit back off the early pace.  I have my doubts about others being able to do that. The Bluegrass was the second time I saw him in person, he\'s not a beast like Dortmund but does he need to be?  A horse has to be fast enough to win the Derby yes, but that doesn\'t mean he has to own the fastest figure going into the Derby.

[Silver Charm]

He ran a 1 and 3/4 at 2. I am assuming he has paired 0\'s or 1\'s so far this year since I don\'t have his figures. That is not a lot of development for a horse who physically looks the part. He hasn\'t been squeezed in either of these preps but surely will be on the 1st Saturday in May.

Broke his maiden going 5.5 and came back and won a solid baby stake at a route in a month. That\'s not easy to do. In the BC he shipped in late and broke almost last.....but stayed interested as a young horse and came from way back to get second with a solid 8W move. If they were all in on a big BC effort they would have shipped earlier but they weren\'t.

Im looking for something like this on Derby Day:
https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/kd2006.pdf

Or even better something like this....
https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/derby1997.pdf

If you want the fastest horse going into the Derby he isn\'t your horse. If you want the fastest one coming out, maybe just maybe he is.....Good Luck!!!

[covelj70]

That\'s all well and good but there are 6 others faster going in another one just as fast.

So I ask again, what exactly have we seen that suggests he\'s going to leapfrog 7 others and run fast enough to win the race?

Maybe he can but other than people\'s gut feel and hope, what are we basing all of this on?

I\'m catching a hard time for making a case for the co fastest horse that is the 5th or 6th choice and yet everyone is pushing the 3rd choice that has 6 faster than him in the race?

[covelj70]

Silver,

Thanks for the thoughts. Always love your views.

Not sure about the squeezing on him part

He had a very simple maintenance breeze by himself on Saturday.

He\'s a multiple grade 1 winner. A half in 48 with a good gallop out with no company isn\'t going to move hm forward. So unless we get a big work this weekend which isn\'t what Todd said to expect, I just don\'t know what it is that will move him forward?

He breezed much harder before the Bluegrass than he will between the derby and the bluegrass.

I think his mental and some physical issues are preventing this horse from running his best and I don\'t see a 130k crowd and a 20 horse field being the setting for a high strung horse with some stuff bugging him to move forward.

With that, I think I just guaranteed that he will wear the roses!!!

[vagrant]

He hasn\'t been pressed hard enough, imo, to expect a big forward move in the hardest race of his life. Everything since the Juvenile has been easy. Easy races, easy works ... the Kentucky Derby isn\'t easy.

[TGJB]

Who\'s giving you a hard time? You expected everyone to like the same horse?

[Silver Charm]

Hey there is no flack from me for liking Materiality. I bet him Florida Derby Day. I think people are scared by the lack of seasoning and a \"what if\" scenario or two. Like what if he doesn\'t get the lead.

Materiality is listed at 12-1 and is fast. That\'s a good deal. Upstart is even faster and is like 15-1. That\'s an even better deal.

So I\'m partial to a horse who is listed at 10-1 and isn\'t as fast. Giants Causeway progeny get progressively faster with age from 2-5. Are faster as Colts and even faster at Routes. AND I like his line. That all I can say.

[boston]

I believe that there will be more Paired Tops than ever.  I know Jerry loves the Paired Tops.  I  am guessing as many as half the field could have Paired Tops.  The fastest of those Paired Tops will be Carpe Diem.

[miff]

\"The fastest of those Paired Tops will be Carpe Diem\"


....not a remote possibility.

[TGJB]

By the definition we\'ve been using, with pair being last 2 races, I think he\'s right. There actually aren\'t that many this year, especially with the fastest horses.

[miff]

That\'s way off all other figs I\'ve seen which are many.Carpe slowwwwwww everywhere.

[jbelfior]

Jim:
For NI that was the wire. Mile and a quarter a touch out of his range.

Get a sloppy track on Derby Day and you won\'t care who rides Materiality.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[boston]

I believe all that are faster did not pair.  I believe Jerry states that within a point is a pair.

[mjellish]

Not everywhere else.  I was told Carpe Diem 2nd fastest on rags.  Only AP ARK Derby faster.  Just saying...

[miff]

Carpe needs a top and 6 others need to not match their current top for him to win, figuratively speaking.