THE DERBY TG

[RICH]

in no particular order

frosted
materialty
upstart

nice lines, slighly slower
dortmond
carpe diem
Ap
firing line
danzig moon

side note, materialy 6 pts develpoment short time , not for me
dortmond, not for me
ap, Dosage sorry
Carpe diem, storm cats 0-44

[ajkreider]

If you don\'t like Materiality\'s improvement, you have to hate Danzig Moon.  How can he move forward off of that!  At least Frosted had that good 2 year old number to get back to.

[bellsbendboy]

If you are back on Carpe Diem \"big time\" how do you have such little regard for Danzig Moon?  bbb

[TGJB]

If you believe form is a constant (i.e they are cars) you can\'t.

There\'s a reason we put the figures on graphs.

[jp702006]

My top 3 after a quick browse of the data:
1. AP
2. Frosted
3. Materiality
4. Tencendur (The Bomb)

[ajkreider]

Of those runners, AP has the best shot for improvement.  Very hard to see Frosted and Tencendur not regressing (especially the latter) off the Wood.  Wouldn\'t have pegged that race as being so strong.  Makes El Kabeir worth at least looking at for the super.

[RICH]

AP obviously has a nice line, but he\'s not the fastest, and this will be his 3rd race in 49 days, also obviously rushed to get here. Lets say he\'s 40% to run the -2 that may win it, with all that\'s in the race, it may give him a 20% -25% to win, fair odds should be about 9-10 to 1

[jp702006]

The problem I see with El Kabier is the Calvin factor. Instead of being 35-1, his odds will now be much lower.

[sekrah]

I think the Calvin factor has slowly faded away.  Ride on Curlin drifted up last year.

[big18741]

Ground saving 2 will probably get you in the super even with all of these negative #\'s going in.

[touchgold]

yes, if you look at archives, a 1 will usually get you in the tri....depending on trip of course...I think most every year except smarty jones derby.

[dcost328]

agree about Calvin factor, but if the horse hits the super, what difference does it make what his odds are. not a good enough reason to not include him, IMO, if you like him. if he should be 35-1 but is 20-1 instead, I am still throwing him in my exotics if I like him. would be pretty gutted to toss him because his odds \"should\" be better and he winds up getting 4th when you have 1,2 and 3.

[ajkreider]

Unfortunately the are a couple of horses that could run a ground saving 2.  I expect at least that out of Far Right and to a lesser extent Star.  Ticket starts to get real crowded (expensive).

[TGJB]

So does the rail...

[jp702006]

I don\'t disagree. My point is that there will be people who would never have used this horse, but now will because of Calvin. That potentially means amature\'s taking money out of my pocket and that is irritating:)