Need to stop worrying about "too much delvelopment"

[covelj70]

I have seen a whole bunch of comments on the board already suggesting \"can\'t play xyz horse because he has developed too much already\"

that is a silly made up concept and it\'s best to ignore that nonsense

Here\'s the reality, some horses just get really good at the right time of the year and improve by leaps and bounds and using arbitrary numbers on a page to rule horses out is silly

Use the TGs to tell you who is fast and who isn\'t.  The \"too much development\" stuff is garbage.

Here\'s the last 9 Derby winners and how much they had developed as a 3 year old prior to the Derby and then how much \"development\" their Derby winning figure represented

2014 - Chrome - 1 pt/1pt (this one fits the \"development theory\")
2013 - Orb - 9pts/9pts (many threw out bc he had \"developed too much\" and lost)
2012 - IHA - 7pts/7pts (same as Orb)
2011 - AK - 5 pts/9pts (same as Orb and IHA)
2010 - Super Saver 0pt/1pt (fits the development rule)
2009 - Mine that Bird - 3pts/9pts (same as Orb and IHA and AK)
2008 - Big Brown - 12 pts/13 pts (same as....well you get the idea)
2007 - Street Sense - 0pt/0pt (fits the rule)
2006 - Barbaro - 3 pts/7pts (doesn\'t fit rule)

focusing on finding the horse that is improving and doing well at the right time has been much more useful than throwing horses out because they have \"developed too much\"

[dcost328]

good post. thanks for the info.

[TGJB]

What\'s the \"development rule\"? And you think zero development follows whatever it is?

[sekrah]

Couple things on my mind after reading this.

1. When projecting further development (trying to find a new top), I don\'t think it\'s a garbage theory. Of course there will be outliers and you\'ll miss some, but in general, a horse that gained 7-8 points from 2 to spring 3 is unlikely to make another significant move forward in the short-term.

2. Some of your examples don\'t really dispose my first point.  Orb was the fastest horse going in. Nobody should ever toss out the fastest horse throwing in. If they do, they are misusing TG. Orb and IHA simply paired up to win the Derby.

3. The horses that you listed to move forward, AK, MTB, and Barbaro were eligible to move forward. 3-5 points is not a ton of development. There\'s almost always room there for another a move.

4. Only one horse in your example made a double digit move, and it also happened to be the one horse who only had 1 race as a 2yo and that race was early September. To me, Big Brown never really established a true 2yo top and one shouldn\'t be making development judgments based on one race that was ran early in the 2yo season.

In general (and assuming a healthy line), 7-8 points of development from a 2yo Nov-Dec figure is pretty standard based on my experience. Some will get there in April, some will get there later in their 3yo season, but they often will get there if they are healthy. So I don\'t think the development theory is garbage, it\'s just that it\'s often misused and misunderstood.

[HP]

Orb and I\'ll Have Another both had big numbers that could win the Derby early in their 3yo year.  The \"too much development\" thing is really about a shorter timeframe.  Like if a horse moved up 5-7 points from say, February to April, I might think that\'s it for now.  I wouldn\'t necessarily measure it from 2yo top, but some people do.

[sekrah]

HP, Agreed. I should have made a stronger point about the time frame of the development. 7-8 points in 3 months is pretty much the most you\'ll ever see and that can start in either November or March.  Hoping for anything more than 7-8 over a short time frame is asking too much based on my experience. Charismatic is a good example of one developing late.

[HP]

Thanks sekrah, I think they can also explode to that huge number too soon as a 3yo and not get back to it, Itsmyluckyday is a good example.  So there may be \"too much development too young?\"

[RICH]

kind of like tencendur 10 pts since Jan, and to a much lessor extent Materiality 6 pts quickly

[HP]

I\'m not looking at the sheets yet because I always overthink it.  If Materiality can pair last and win and the price is right and he looks good, I could see that.  If he needs to move forward to win that may be a different story.  Ten points and needing a forward move is tough.

[sekrah]

Yeah, A pair makes him interesting in the exotics, but expecting Tencendur to run another new top is insanity. It\'s just extremely rare for that type of line to keep going and this is where I disagree with Jim\'s argument against \"too much development\".

Materiality had similar growth, but his best would be good enough, so he doesn\'t need a new top. But I\'d rate his chances at running a new top significantly more likely than Tencendur\'s.

Those are easy reads or \"Bronze\" Sudoku puzzles.

The problem you run into is horses like Firing Line. Do we use his Nov 30th at Del Mar or his Dec 20th at Los Al to establish his base? He should be given credit for at least having a 2 point move left in him, possibly more. But when?  Horses like this are the \"Gold\" Sudokus.

[johnnym]

Agree regarding developing to much and catching the horse improving the most.
I am assuming you are making this post more to justify your take on Materiality.
Horse has a lot going against him Apollo curse you must admit that is a lot of history there and we went over the Pletcher angle. Some reason the Bills and the Vikings can\'t win Super Bowls either..
Good Luck

[covelj70]

this actually wasn\'t about Materiality

I was thinking about it more from the standpoint of someone like Tencendur

My bloockstock agent pushed me to try and buy him (or a piece of him) 3 months ago because he argued he was the kind of horse that would get better with time and distance.  I didn\'t bite bc his TG figs were too slow.  Dumb move.

he has gotten better with every race and he\'s faster to start than some of the favorites. Hasn\'t reacted yet to a figure

I wouldn\'t throw him out for a piece of this just because he has developed a lot since he was supposed to develop a lot

[sekrah]

Thinking Tencendur could move forward 3-5 points after the Withers was not unreasonable at all. A good, healthy horse should have.

Expecting him to move forward another 2 points after the Wood is a different question and very unlikely in the short-term IMO.

That\'s my take based on my experience with development lines.

[TGJB]

Jim-- we went after him too, after the \"!\". But not as a Derby horse.

[covelj70]

Sek,

He doesn\'t need to improve to get a piece of this race on the TGs