JB, sincere question for you

[covelj70]

you presented wonderful analysis in the 2012 seminar about Baffert\'s horses coming in off new tops and then also his on 3 weeks rest.

As we can see from the seminar archive, he has a great overall record of tops and pairs in Derby (relative to the average) but his record on 3 weeks rest and off new tops is atrocious

You had Bode fitting the pattern and bouncing hard in the Derby while still able to run 2nd with the ground saving trip.

Here\'s the question, in retrospect, after seeing how well he ran in the Preakness (new top only 2 weeks later), do you have any questions about the figure you gave him in the Derby?

My guess is that you will use the excellent 2012 seminar data and add Bode to that list to make a case against AP and that would be a fascinating and controversial stance (it\'s certainly thought provoking for me right now).

That said, given the pace he set in the Derby while still holding on for 2nd and the fact that he came back only 2 weeks later to run another monster race, it\'s hard to see his Derby as a bounce.

seems like based on the TG figs for the 2nd and 3rd choices this year and the seminar data from 2012 applied to the top choice on the ML this year, you can and will make a very compelling case to throw out the top 3 choices on the morning line this year.  Cool stuff

thoughts?

[TGJB]

There are a lot of assumptions in that post and I\'m going to save my commentary for the seminar. But I will say that thinking Bode ran better than the figure indicates because of pace and saying the figure is wrong are two different things. We don\'t put \"H pace\" there for nothing.

[covelj70]

I didn\'t say I \"thought\" the figure was wrong.  I made it very clear I was asking a sincere question.  I could see the argument both ways.

I understand you want to wait for people to see the formal views in the seminar.  That\'s cool

thought provoking stuff either way

[sekrah]

JB,

Any chance we can get a denotation to signify where the horse was during the \"H pace\". It\'s nice to know who had a hand in the \"H pace\" and who didn\'t, and the race comments are often vague. IHA/Bode is a good example of this need. IHA\'s 1.25 is just a normal 1.25 if he\'s not involved with the extreme pace scenario (and he wasn\'t).

Any horse involved in setting the extreme pace scenario would have their final time negatively affected as they move further away from their optimum energy usage.

[TGJB]

Short answer is this is one you\'re going to have to work out for yourself.

[Polamalu43]

I\'m fairly new to the TG figs and such, but have gotten a much better grasp in terms of reading and interpretin the numbers and information given.

Let me play devils advocate with BB\'s numbers on 3 weeks rest, coming off a new top, relative to AP.

Due to the fact that AP was geared down, along with Victor\'s hands being essentially motionless the whole ride tells me that there is little chance of AP NOT moving forward off that trip.  I expect another new top.  

Fire away as I\'m failry new to this.

[TGJB]

This is the only situation where I quote Len Ragozin:

\"Just because a horse could have run faster last time doesn\'t mean he gets to use that energy this time\".

That aside, there\'s a difference between not being urged and being eased up.

[HP]

It\'s a good question.  I ask myself if that is going to happen in the Derby and the answer is a resounding no.  He is not going to walk away from nobodies with Victor sitting there like a statue.  And even if he was in hand, he still made an effort to run fast and that counts.  I have to wonder what happens if he gets bounced around or finds himself boxed in.

[mjellish]

Assuming a horse could have run faster if urged is usually a mistake.  AP came home his last 1/8th in 12.6 or so.  That\'s pretty fast.  He wasn\'t going to come home in 11 if asked.

[HP]

I could easily see it as a negative.  Maybe he goes out there and gets banged around and says \"what the hell is this?!?\"

[miff]

\"Assuming a horse could have run faster if urged is usually a mistake. AP came home his last 1/8th in 12.6 or so. That\'s pretty fast. He wasn\'t going to come home in 11 if asked\"


Agree,maybe something like 12.3 which would make his TG fig like 1.5 points faster than he got.

[bellsbendboy]

At any rate Mike, ten days out AP is strictly the one to beat!  bbb

[ajkreider]

There\'s not being urged, and there\'s slowing down to a canter.  I\'m reading the Mutter\'s sheet as his last being a new top, despite the real number.

[miff]

Overall great field Bell,fast/accomplished/a couple undefeated horses.If one doesn\'t have a headache,they\'re probably delusional.

[hotspringskid]

I live in Hot Springs and was lucky enough to see AP win the Arkansas Derby. I went home and watched the replay of AP\'s race several times. It appears to me that the reins were getting tighter the last 50 to 100 yards from the finish line. I have never been on a horse in my life, but it sure looked like he was trying to ease up AP at the end. Am I right or wrong?