I do not wager vertically as a rule, so it is fascinating to me how the
pursuit of superfecta glory brings the entire twenty horse field into the
dialogue.
Ever since glancing at the TGs, I have reduced the field to 6 possible winners
to be used in the horizontals (in no particular order): AmPhar, Dortmund,
Carpe Diem, Frosted, Upstart and Materiality. I am pretty much swimming in the
Kool Aid here as these runners are whom I see as arguably the six fastest
Derby entrants based on the TG data.
In re swimming, one of Detective Lenny Briscoe\'s great lines on Law and Order:
\"Booze. Some people swim in it, other people drown in it.\"
Five of these six are trained by three of the most successful trainers in
North America, even though Baffert hasn\'t won the Derby recently, Pletcher\'s
dismal Derby record invites conspiracy theorizing, and KMac has been an
infrequent participant.
Plus/Minus: (+) Dortmund\'s win at CD as a 2YO; the fact that AmPhar and
Dortmund are early February foals; the fact that Materiality is \"double
whammied\" (No 2YO starts/Pletcher)(I make this a (+) because it will add
value, and these are two \"jinxes\" which will eventually be broken); JB\'s \"buy\"
recommendation on Upstart.
(-): Many more of these. Wide trips experienced by Upstart, Frosted and Carpe
Diem, and the possibility that these wide trips become wider trips in a large
field and depending on post; Upstart missing a wee bit of training; the fact
that Frosted\'s TGs make him look like an AQ main track horse for course; the
notion that AmPhar was beating up on the \"Little Sisters of the Poor\" in his
OP races.
Waiting for the CD folks to draw the Oaks Day card and Derby undercard; from
what I have read Bayern and Judy the Beauty loom short priced favorites on the
Derby undercard returning from last year\'s BC triumphs.
