AP

[covelj70]

For what it\'s worth, that\'s as good of a work as I\'ve ever seem from a horse.

He went 58 and change in a common gallop by himself.

[miff]

Jim,

A small caution. AP always works brilliantly prompting the sharpest clockers in Cali to rave about him. Just saying he exhibits freaky tendencies in the am all the time.


Mike

[FrankD.]

Mike,

Many will feel they are getting 3/1 or 5/2 on the 2nd coming of Seattle Slew who was 1/2 in his Derby?

[miff]

Frank,

Gotta beat a tough field but I respect the guy in Cali who told me months ago this horse was freaky fast in the am.

Welsch wrote:

American Pharoah Dazzles in final Derby prep

They saved the best for last and it was surely worth the wait all week to finally see AMERICAN PHAROAH strut his stuff this morning, leaving little doubt he is the horse to beat in this year\'s Derby after a dazzling five furlong breeze, jockey Martin Garcia up, in 58.62, clipping off a steady series of sub :12 eighth mile splits along the way and doing  so as easy as can be before galloping out six furlongs in a strong 1:12.01.

[covelj70]

Of course but he\'s also been freaky in all of his races in the afternoon as well so the fact that he continues to be freaky in the morning is very relevant

Still don\'t know what will happen when he hits the 8th pole but I don\'t see any way this horse finishes out of the super and will play accordingly.

And I don\'t care if he draws the rail either. Victor will be able to place him wherever he wants no matter where he draws.

[FrankD.]

Baffert has 2 in his barn this year that would have laid over most TC fields the past 20 years.

AP with his amazing ease he glides over the track with, as visually impressive as any I\'ve seen and Dortmund with his massive ground eating stride are both one\'s most trainers hope for once in a lifetime!

This year who knows, too many variables, questions and other fast horses?

[miff]

Jim,

Agree, it looks like he needs to get a bad trip/dynamics to be out of super.

Mike

[mjellish]

My guy said his 6F Gallop out was in a l:11 and 2.  So that\'s faster than Welsch is saying.  It also means AP shaded 13 for another 1/8th at the end of that work after running 4 consecutive sub 12 1/8ths.  That\'s a strong gallop out and would seem to indicate that he is feeling pretty good right now.  

My guy also said you could hardly hear AP hit the ground as he went by compared to how the other workers sounded today.  Track a little cuppy in his opinion.

I\'m starting to think this colt has a freaky, efficient stride that just doesn\'t have a lot of up and down to it.  And he seems to just run and run without being asked in the morning and his races.  Will be interesting to see if you can run much faster if when he is actually asked to.  I don\'t see how.  If he can he is truly a freak.

[miff]

The only chink in his armor is he has never really hooked anything like he will on Sat. Can he take early pressure and stay 10f?

[FrankD.]

Mike you I and many others will be paying to find that out next week. I\'ve got to go elsewhere in this field at the price he will be.

[Fairmount1]

Miff wrote:  The only chink in his armor is he has never really hooked anything like he will on Sat. Can he take early pressure and stay 10f?


Also, the protective plate and Zayat\'s comments about a possible suspensory injury (although no Xray or ultrasound revealed such apparently)?  Maybe he is more fragile than others.

[toppled]

That\'s why even though I expect him to win the Derby, I can\'t imagine him winning the Triple Crown.  He\'s going to have to run a big negative number to win the Derby & it\'s going to take its toll.  If not in the Preakness, then almost certainly in the Belmont.  I think that will be true of any horse who wins the Derby.  The good thing is, all he has to do is win this race for me to cash and he looks fine going into this race.

[johnnym]

At those odds I am guessing 5-2 or 3-1 ill go in another direction.
Dortmund is much more battle tested. Dortmund resume answers all my questions.
AP was very babied went the easy rout through Arkansas who\'s prep races I have as the weakest of all regarding competition.  
AP may be a freak but hopefully at 5-1 ill wheel Dortmund and play AP underneath.
Good Luck
P.S was not really spoke about on here but Dortmund did put in a very nice work at Santa Anita on Sat coming home in 22 and change..

[toppled]

I\'m locked I at 8/1 on Pharoah, so he can be bet down to anything & it won\'t hurt my odds.  Frankly, at 8/1, I\'m happy with what I\'ve got & if I get beat, that\'s the game.

The Dortmund work is really up for debate. The math of him coming home in 22 doesn\'t add up. My 1st impression was that Dortmund has never worked that slow in his life, making me feel pretty negatively towards that work.  Then I heard of the last quarter & had no idea what to make of it.  Then when people started doing the math, the 22 was questionable since Bruno has him in 51+ and Baffert had him at 101 for 5f.  I\'d love to see all the splits on that work so we\'d know for sure.  Maybe the final clocking of 113.60 is wrong. Read the comment section of the BloodHorse article & see how the math of the work is up for debate.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91535/dortmund-runs-easy-in-final-derby-drill

[mjellish]

Final quarter time is right.  22 and change.  Baffert works them from the 1/16th poles not the 1/8th poles, and past the wire.